【摘要】：近年來(lái)，危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸量急劇增長(zhǎng)，與之相伴的運(yùn)輸事故也層出不窮，尤其是較大規(guī)模的危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸事故，給社會(huì)帶來(lái)巨大的人員財(cái)產(chǎn)損失。2012年6月29日凌晨4時(shí)，廣州沿江高速公路南崗段發(fā)生一起貨車與裝載溶劑油的油罐車追尾相撞的交通事故，造成20死亡、16人重傷、14人輕傷、1人八級(jí)傷殘的嚴(yán)重后果，凸顯了應(yīng)急救援調(diào)度工作的重要性。 本文針對(duì)大規(guī)模危險(xiǎn)品事故的應(yīng)急資源調(diào)度問(wèn)題展開(kāi)了深入研究與討論。危險(xiǎn)品事故應(yīng)急不同于自然災(zāi)害的救援工作，同一區(qū)域內(nèi)行駛的危險(xiǎn)品運(yùn)輸車輛數(shù)量巨大，任何地點(diǎn)均可能成為事故點(diǎn)。故危險(xiǎn)品應(yīng)急不單單要考慮救援時(shí)效性的問(wèn)題，還要考慮系統(tǒng)的穩(wěn)定性。文章采用層層深入、逐步深化的研究思路，按照單事故點(diǎn)、多資源→多事故點(diǎn)、多資源的研究路線，并從理想化的調(diào)度模型逐步深化過(guò)渡到考慮諸多現(xiàn)實(shí)因素的調(diào)度模型，最終完成從單個(gè)事故點(diǎn)的資源調(diào)度問(wèn)題達(dá)到實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)同時(shí)發(fā)生兩場(chǎng)以上事故、多種應(yīng)急物資需要分配的應(yīng)急資源調(diào)度問(wèn)題。 文章在研究了廣東省應(yīng)急資源調(diào)度現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上，首先針對(duì)單一事故點(diǎn)問(wèn)題進(jìn)行研究，從理想化的應(yīng)急救援問(wèn)題延伸到考慮道路擁堵、應(yīng)急資源需求不確定性、決策者偏好等不確定因素的影響，最終建立了基于運(yùn)輸時(shí)間預(yù)測(cè)的魯棒模糊優(yōu)化模型。本文重點(diǎn)刻畫了應(yīng)急資源需求不確定情況下的應(yīng)急資源調(diào)度問(wèn)題，通過(guò)模糊優(yōu)化降低了資源需求的不確定性，通過(guò)引入應(yīng)急資源調(diào)度時(shí)間的魯棒約束來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)調(diào)度決策的魯棒性。 隨后本文進(jìn)一步深化，研究了多事故點(diǎn)問(wèn)題，，分別建立了多事故問(wèn)題的理想化調(diào)度模型與魯棒模糊優(yōu)化模型，針對(duì)多事故點(diǎn)中關(guān)鍵資源的分配提出了基于時(shí)間公平性和基于事故損失程度兩種不同的分配原則。 文章最后對(duì)廣深沿江高速“6.29”撞車溶劑油泄漏爆燃事故和番禺區(qū)南村鎮(zhèn)化工廠爆炸事故兩場(chǎng)現(xiàn)實(shí)案例，利用基于時(shí)間預(yù)測(cè)的魯棒模糊優(yōu)化模型，完成了對(duì)危險(xiǎn)品應(yīng)急資源的有效調(diào)度，并通過(guò)實(shí)際案例對(duì)各相關(guān)參數(shù)展開(kāi)了討論分析，提出了現(xiàn)實(shí)調(diào)度的建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the volume of dangerous goods transport has increased dramatically, and the accompanying accidents have emerged in endlessly, especially in the large scale of dangerous goods transportation accidents, which have brought huge loss of human and property to the society. On June 29, 2012, at 4: 00 a.m., A traffic accident occurred in the Nangang section of Guangzhou River Expressway in which a truck collided with a tanker loaded with solvent oil, resulting in 20 deaths, 16 serious injuries, 14 minor injuries and 1 grade 8 disability. It highlights the importance of emergency dispatch. In this paper, the problem of emergency resource scheduling for large-scale dangerous goods accidents is studied and discussed. The emergency of dangerous goods accidents is different from the rescue work of natural disasters. The number of dangerous goods transportation vehicles in the same area is huge, and any location may become the accident site. Therefore, the emergency of dangerous goods should not only consider the timeliness of rescue, but also the stability of the system. Based on the research route of single accident, multi-resource, multi-resource and multi-resource, the paper gradually deepens the model from idealized scheduling model to a scheduling model that takes many practical factors into account. Finally, from the resource scheduling problem of a single accident point to an emergency resource scheduling problem in which more than two accidents occur simultaneously and a variety of emergency materials need to be allocated. On the basis of studying the current situation of emergency resource scheduling in Guangdong Province, this paper firstly studies the problem of single accident point, which extends from the idealized emergency rescue problem to the consideration of road congestion and uncertainty of emergency resource demand. Finally, a robust fuzzy optimization model based on transportation time prediction is established because of the influence of uncertain factors such as decision makers' preference. In this paper, the emergency resource scheduling problem with uncertain emergency resource requirements is described, the uncertainty of resource demand is reduced by fuzzy optimization, and the robustness of scheduling decision is realized by introducing robust constraints of emergency resource scheduling time. Then this paper further deepens, studies the multi-accident point problem, establishes the idealized scheduling model and the robust fuzzy optimization model of the multi-accident problem, respectively. Two different allocation principles based on time fairness and accident loss degree are proposed for the allocation of critical resources in multi-accident points. In the end of the paper, two real cases, namely "6.29" car collision oil leakage and deflagration accident and Nancun chemical plant explosion accident in Guangzhou-Shenzhen high speed along the Yangtze River, are given, and the robust fuzzy optimization model based on time prediction is used. The effective scheduling of dangerous goods emergency resources is completed, and the relevant parameters are discussed and analyzed through practical cases, and the practical scheduling suggestions are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華南理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：U492.8;U492.336.3

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