【摘要】：近年來，隨著煤礦生產(chǎn)在開采深度上不斷增加，煤礦突水日趨嚴(yán)重，突水事故多有發(fā)生，給人民的生命與財產(chǎn)帶來了極大的損失。本文將模糊數(shù)學(xué)理論應(yīng)用到安全評價當(dāng)中，，首次對我國煤礦突水安全程度進(jìn)行綜合評價，對我國煤礦突水研究與防治具有一定的指導(dǎo)意義。 本文在分析研究了多種安全評價方法之后選擇了專家調(diào)查法、層次分析法與模糊綜合評價法。采用事故致因理論和層次法原理對影響煤礦突水的危險源進(jìn)行了綜合辨識，并據(jù)此構(gòu)建了全面的煤礦突水安全評價指標(biāo)體系。在此基礎(chǔ)上對指標(biāo)體系中各影響因素進(jìn)行了定性定量研究，本文對5類23個因素作為影響煤礦突水的主要因素進(jìn)行安全評價。首先采用專家調(diào)查法確定模糊評判指標(biāo)的隸屬度，并用層次分析法（AHP）確定所有評價指標(biāo)的權(quán)重，然后將模糊數(shù)學(xué)理論和層次法有機結(jié)合起來構(gòu)成模糊綜合評價系統(tǒng)并將此評價系統(tǒng)應(yīng)用到Y(jié)煤礦突水安全評價過程中，由此得出Y煤礦突水的模糊向量集A=[0.3267,0.3365,0.2048,0.1210,0.0119]，根據(jù)最大隸屬度原則可知Y煤礦突水安全等級屬于B級(較好)。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the continuous increase of mining depth in coal mine production, water inrush in coal mine is becoming more and more serious, and water inrush accidents often occur, which brings great loss to people's lives and property. In this paper, the fuzzy mathematics theory is applied to the safety evaluation, and it is the first time to comprehensively evaluate the safety degree of water inrush in coal mines in China, which has a certain guiding significance for the research and prevention of water inrush in coal mines in China. After analyzing and studying many safety evaluation methods, this paper chooses the expert investigation method, the analytic hierarchy process method and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Based on the theory of accident cause and the principle of hierarchy method, the comprehensive identification of the dangerous sources affecting water inrush in coal mines is carried out, and a comprehensive evaluation index system of water inrush safety in coal mines is constructed. On the basis of this, qualitative and quantitative study was carried out on the influencing factors in the index system. In this paper, the safety evaluation of 23 factors of 5 categories as the main factors affecting the water inrush in coal mines was carried out. Firstly, the membership degree of fuzzy evaluation index is determined by expert investigation method, and the weight of all evaluation indexes is determined by analytic hierarchy process (AHP) (AHP). Then the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation system is constituted by combining the fuzzy mathematics theory with the hierarchical method, and the evaluation system is applied to the evaluation process of water inrush safety in Y coal mine. Therefore, the fuzzy vector set A = [0.3267U 0.3365U 0.2048U 0.1210U 0.0119] of water inrush in Y coal mine is obtained. According to the principle of maximum membership degree, the safety grade of water inrush in Y coal mine belongs to class B (better).
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：TD745

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