長江干線水上交通安全多因素耦合預(yù)警模型研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-07-24 11:33
【摘要】：加快長江航運發(fā)展己上升為國家戰(zhàn)略,而發(fā)展長江航運必須以安全為前提和保障,水上安全預(yù)警管理工作必將加強。現(xiàn)階段對長江干線水上交通安全預(yù)警管理研究較多,但其中的多因素耦合的安全預(yù)警模型研究則相對較弱,適應(yīng)性較差。因此,多因素耦合預(yù)警模型則成為進(jìn)一步研究的方向,并結(jié)合對通航環(huán)境、航行船只、動態(tài)交通流安全狀態(tài)的實時數(shù)據(jù)采集,實現(xiàn)對長江通航的實時動態(tài)監(jiān)管,將安全監(jiān)管從事后向事前、從被動向主動、從經(jīng)驗向科學(xué)的轉(zhuǎn)變,對于促進(jìn)內(nèi)河航運安全暢通,提高整體運輸效率,具有重要意義。 本文是筆者參與交通運輸部交通運輸建設(shè)重大科技專項“長江黃金水道重點航段安全保障關(guān)鍵技術(shù)研究”(201132820190)部分研究工作的成果。將現(xiàn)代應(yīng)用數(shù)學(xué)方法、信息論、概率統(tǒng)計與安全系統(tǒng)工程等理論和方法,引入水上交通安全預(yù)警管理研究中,從大系統(tǒng)角度出發(fā),重點開展基于多因素耦合的長江干線水上交通安全的預(yù)警技術(shù)研究,主要研究內(nèi)容包括三部分。 1)根據(jù)統(tǒng)計的歷年長江干線水上交通安全事故,分類總結(jié)事故特點,探究長江干線水上交通安全風(fēng)險因素,為預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系的構(gòu)建提供依據(jù)。結(jié)合長江干線安全監(jiān)管工作實際,分析安全監(jiān)管與預(yù)警管理的現(xiàn)狀與存在的問題。 2)分析水上交通安全風(fēng)險因素,設(shè)計長江干線水上交通安全預(yù)警指標(biāo)調(diào)查問卷并開展調(diào)查,在此基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建4大類11亞類共33個指標(biāo)、具有實時動態(tài)性的長江干線水上交通安全預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系,并確定各指標(biāo)的閾值。根據(jù)不同航段特征,從事故誘因與事故發(fā)生次數(shù)間的關(guān)系出發(fā),采用ABC分析法,分別構(gòu)建長江干線淺險和繁忙航段水上交通安全預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系。 3)研究基于多因素耦合的預(yù)警模型。構(gòu)建了基于貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)的多因素耦合預(yù)警模型,并進(jìn)行了算例驗證。構(gòu)建了基于結(jié)構(gòu)方程加權(quán)、BP人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的長江干線水上交通安全多因素耦合預(yù)警模型,前者以顯態(tài)的指標(biāo)權(quán)重進(jìn)行水上交通危險程度的預(yù)算,后者則以非顯態(tài)指標(biāo)權(quán)重進(jìn)行水上交通危險程度的預(yù)測。針對長江干線淺險航段特征,在100個事故統(tǒng)計基礎(chǔ)上,進(jìn)行了實證研究,兩模型預(yù)警結(jié)果一致,可相互驗證。研究顯示,兩種模型方法相輔相成,可提高水上交通安全預(yù)警的準(zhǔn)確性和可靠性。 本文構(gòu)建的具有實時動態(tài)性的長江干線水上交通安全預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系,基于結(jié)構(gòu)方程加權(quán)多因素耦合和基于BP人工神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)多因素耦合的長江干線水上交通安全預(yù)警模型,及實證研究,具有創(chuàng)新性和較強的實用價值。
[Abstract]:Speeding up the development of the Yangtze River shipping has risen to a national strategy, and the development of the Yangtze River shipping must be based on security as the premise and guarantee, and the early warning management of water safety must be strengthened. At the present stage, there are many researches on the early warning management of the traffic safety on the Yangtze River main line, but the research on the multi factor coupled safety early warning model is relatively weak and the adaptability is poor. Therefore, the multi factor coupling early warning model is the direction of further research, and combined with the real-time data collection of navigation environment, navigation ships and dynamic traffic flow safety state, the real-time dynamic supervision of the navigation of the Yangtze River is realized, and the safety supervision is engaged in the forward, from the initiative, from the experience to the science, to the promotion of the inland river. Shipping is safe and smooth, and improving overall transport efficiency is of great significance.
This article is the result of the author's part of the study on the key technology of the key section of the Yangtze golden waterway (201132820190), which is a major scientific and technological special special project of the transportation and transportation construction of the Ministry of transportation. In the study of police management, from the perspective of large system, the research on early warning technology of water traffic safety on the Yangtze River trunk line based on multi factor coupling is carried out. The main research contents include three parts.
1) according to the statistics of the traffic safety accidents on the Yangtze River trunk line in the past years, the characteristics of the accident are classified and summarized, and the risk factors of the water traffic safety on the Yangtze River trunk line are explored to provide the basis for the construction of the early warning index system. The current situation and problems of the safety supervision and pre police management are analyzed in combination with the actual safety supervision work of the Yangtze River trunk line.
2) analyze the risk factors of the water traffic safety, design the survey questionnaire of the early warning index of the Yangtze River trunk line water traffic safety, and carry out the investigation. On this basis, we build 4 categories and 11 subcategories with 33 indexes, and have the real-time dynamic early warning index system of the Yangtze River trunk line water traffic safety, and determine the threshold of each index. Based on the relationship between the number of incentives and the number of accidents, the ABC analysis method was used to build an early warning index system for water traffic safety in shallow and dangerous sections of the Yangtze River.
3) an early warning model based on multi factor coupling is studied. A multi factor coupling early warning model based on Bayesian network is constructed, and an example verification is carried out. A multi factor coupling early warning model of water traffic safety on the Yangtze River trunk line based on structural equation weighting and BP artificial neural network is constructed. The former uses the explicit index weight to carry on the water traffic danger. On the basis of 100 accident statistics, the two model early warning results are consistent and can be verified each other. The study shows that the two model methods complement each other and can improve the safety of water traffic safety. The accuracy and reliability of early warning.
The early warning index system of the Yangtze River trunk traffic safety with real-time dynamic characteristics is based on the weighted multi factor coupling of structural equation and the water traffic safety early warning model of the Yangtze River trunk line based on the multi factor coupling of BP artificial neural network, and the empirical study, which is of innovation and strong practical value.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：U698
本文編號：2141243
[Abstract]:Speeding up the development of the Yangtze River shipping has risen to a national strategy, and the development of the Yangtze River shipping must be based on security as the premise and guarantee, and the early warning management of water safety must be strengthened. At the present stage, there are many researches on the early warning management of the traffic safety on the Yangtze River main line, but the research on the multi factor coupled safety early warning model is relatively weak and the adaptability is poor. Therefore, the multi factor coupling early warning model is the direction of further research, and combined with the real-time data collection of navigation environment, navigation ships and dynamic traffic flow safety state, the real-time dynamic supervision of the navigation of the Yangtze River is realized, and the safety supervision is engaged in the forward, from the initiative, from the experience to the science, to the promotion of the inland river. Shipping is safe and smooth, and improving overall transport efficiency is of great significance.
This article is the result of the author's part of the study on the key technology of the key section of the Yangtze golden waterway (201132820190), which is a major scientific and technological special special project of the transportation and transportation construction of the Ministry of transportation. In the study of police management, from the perspective of large system, the research on early warning technology of water traffic safety on the Yangtze River trunk line based on multi factor coupling is carried out. The main research contents include three parts.
1) according to the statistics of the traffic safety accidents on the Yangtze River trunk line in the past years, the characteristics of the accident are classified and summarized, and the risk factors of the water traffic safety on the Yangtze River trunk line are explored to provide the basis for the construction of the early warning index system. The current situation and problems of the safety supervision and pre police management are analyzed in combination with the actual safety supervision work of the Yangtze River trunk line.
2) analyze the risk factors of the water traffic safety, design the survey questionnaire of the early warning index of the Yangtze River trunk line water traffic safety, and carry out the investigation. On this basis, we build 4 categories and 11 subcategories with 33 indexes, and have the real-time dynamic early warning index system of the Yangtze River trunk line water traffic safety, and determine the threshold of each index. Based on the relationship between the number of incentives and the number of accidents, the ABC analysis method was used to build an early warning index system for water traffic safety in shallow and dangerous sections of the Yangtze River.
3) an early warning model based on multi factor coupling is studied. A multi factor coupling early warning model based on Bayesian network is constructed, and an example verification is carried out. A multi factor coupling early warning model of water traffic safety on the Yangtze River trunk line based on structural equation weighting and BP artificial neural network is constructed. The former uses the explicit index weight to carry on the water traffic danger. On the basis of 100 accident statistics, the two model early warning results are consistent and can be verified each other. The study shows that the two model methods complement each other and can improve the safety of water traffic safety. The accuracy and reliability of early warning.
The early warning index system of the Yangtze River trunk traffic safety with real-time dynamic characteristics is based on the weighted multi factor coupling of structural equation and the water traffic safety early warning model of the Yangtze River trunk line based on the multi factor coupling of BP artificial neural network, and the empirical study, which is of innovation and strong practical value.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：U698
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