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寧波市船舶海難事故綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-07-03 02:30

  本文選題:海難事故 + 事故類(lèi)型; 參考:《寧波大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文


【摘要】:寧波市是我國(guó)規(guī)模較大的港口城市,其轄區(qū)的海域交通安全管理水平隨港口的發(fā)展也在不斷提高,但是船舶海難事故仍時(shí)有發(fā)生,造成經(jīng)濟(jì)損失和人員傷亡,影響寧波海洋經(jīng)濟(jì)和城市的發(fā)展。因此,如何對(duì)寧波市船舶海難事故綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行分析,提高寧波市海上交通安全十分重要。 為能盡可能科學(xué)合理的對(duì)寧波市船舶海難事故的綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行評(píng)估,本文將主要以寧波市北侖區(qū)水域的船舶海難事故為對(duì)象,研究風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的方法及其應(yīng)用。首先,以2003—2010年的船舶海難事故數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)為基礎(chǔ),依據(jù)相關(guān)法規(guī)和相關(guān)理論研究分析得出寧波市船舶海難事故概況,并據(jù)此對(duì)寧波北侖區(qū)發(fā)生船舶海難事故的水域劃分為五個(gè)港口區(qū)域和五個(gè)航道區(qū)域。其次,借鑒事故致因理論,從氣象條件、人為因素、船舶因素、航道條件和港口因素五個(gè)方面研究船舶海難事故發(fā)生的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源。再次,通過(guò)問(wèn)卷調(diào)查和應(yīng)用層次分析法,結(jié)合相關(guān)研究資料,確定船舶海難事故綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的評(píng)判指標(biāo)及各指標(biāo)的權(quán)重。在此基礎(chǔ)上,借鑒工程設(shè)計(jì)參數(shù)的二級(jí)模糊綜合評(píng)判方法,提出寧波市北侖區(qū)船舶海難事故綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)判模型。最后,在分析問(wèn)卷調(diào)查的基礎(chǔ)上,比對(duì)評(píng)判指標(biāo)的重要性排序,應(yīng)用所建立的評(píng)判模型首先計(jì)算得出了整個(gè)寧波北侖區(qū)的船舶海難事故的綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀況,然后以寧波市北侖區(qū)為具體分析對(duì)象,將北侖區(qū)劃分成甬江口水域、北侖港海域、大榭港海域、穿山港海域和梅山港海域五個(gè)區(qū)域和航線a~e五個(gè)航道區(qū)域,對(duì)這些區(qū)域的船舶海難事故的狀況進(jìn)行具體的評(píng)價(jià)和分析,并繪制了北侖區(qū)各區(qū)域船舶海難事故綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)分布圖,,得到相關(guān)的結(jié)論和分析。 本文探討了事故致因理論、層次分析法、工程設(shè)計(jì)參數(shù)的二級(jí)模糊綜合評(píng)判方法在寧波市船舶海難事故綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的分析中的應(yīng)用,提出了寧波市船舶海難事故發(fā)生的主要危險(xiǎn)源及其重要度。運(yùn)用模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)方法主要對(duì)寧波市北侖區(qū)船舶海難事故綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià),并繪制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)圖,從而提出一些建議,減少或避免船舶海難事故的發(fā)生,從而促進(jìn)寧波的持續(xù)快速健康發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Ningbo is a large port city in China. The level of traffic safety management in its area is also improving with the development of the port. However, shipwrecks still occur from time to time, resulting in economic losses and casualties. Impact Ningbo marine economy and the development of the city. Therefore, it is very important to analyze the comprehensive risk of shipwreck in Ningbo and improve the safety of sea traffic in Ningbo. In order to evaluate the comprehensive risk of shipwreck in Ningbo as scientifically and reasonably as possible, this paper will mainly take the shipwreck in the waters of Beilun District of Ningbo as the object, and study the method of risk assessment and its application. First of all, based on the statistics of shipwreck data from 2003 to 2010, according to the relevant laws and regulations and relevant theoretical research and analysis, the general situation of shipwreck accident in Ningbo City is obtained. According to this, the waters of the shipwreck in Beilun District of Ningbo are divided into five port areas and five waterway areas. Secondly, using the theory of accident cause for reference, this paper studies the risk source of shipwreck from five aspects: weather condition, human factor, ship factor, channel condition and port factor. Thirdly, through the questionnaire survey and the application of AHP, combined with the relevant research data, the evaluation index and the weight of each index of the comprehensive risk of shipwreck accident are determined. On this basis, a comprehensive risk evaluation model of shipwrecks in Beilun District of Ningbo City is put forward by referring to the two-stage fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of engineering design parameters. Finally, on the basis of analyzing the questionnaire, comparing the importance of the evaluation index, the comprehensive risk situation of the shipwrecked accident in Beilun district of Ningbo is calculated by using the evaluation model established in this paper. Then taking the Beilun district of Ningbo as the concrete analysis object, the Beilun district is divided into five regions and five channel areas, namely, Yongjiang estuary, Beilun port, Daxie port, Qianshan port and Meishan port The status of shipwrecks in these areas is evaluated and analyzed, and the comprehensive risk level distribution map of shipwrecks in Beilun area is drawn, and the relevant conclusions and analysis are obtained. This paper discusses the application of the theory of accident cause, the analytic hierarchy process and the two-stage fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of engineering design parameters in the comprehensive risk assessment of shipwreck accidents in Ningbo. The main hazard sources and their importance of shipwrecks in Ningbo are put forward. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is mainly used to evaluate the comprehensive risk of shipwrecks in Beilun District of Ningbo City, and draw the risk grade map, and then put forward some suggestions to reduce or avoid the occurrence of shipwreck accidents. So as to promote Ningbo's sustained, rapid and healthy development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:寧波大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】:U698;U676.8

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