本文選題：巨災(zāi) + 情景-應(yīng)對��； 參考：《哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：有史以來，人類在生存、生活和發(fā)展的同時(shí)，必須與各類災(zāi)害威脅進(jìn)行不懈地抗?fàn)�，尤其是巨�?zāi)事件。巨災(zāi)事件對人類社會造成巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失、大量人員傷亡和大規(guī)模設(shè)施受損，一直是人類面臨的社會性難題。有效的巨災(zāi)應(yīng)對能夠減輕損失，減少人員傷亡，保護(hù)財(cái)產(chǎn)。因此，巨災(zāi)應(yīng)對是政界、學(xué)界以及社會各界關(guān)注的問題，期望巨災(zāi)應(yīng)對研究工作能夠取得實(shí)質(zhì)性進(jìn)展。 巨災(zāi)事件是“小概率大影響”事件，較少發(fā)生，一旦爆發(fā)即造成災(zāi)難性的破壞。巨災(zāi)事件極少出現(xiàn)或者不會出現(xiàn)預(yù)兆，災(zāi)情報(bào)告時(shí)間和應(yīng)對決策時(shí)間極短；巨災(zāi)應(yīng)對缺乏歷史案例參考，預(yù)備行動方案策劃適應(yīng)性不足，常規(guī)應(yīng)急決策機(jī)制不適用于巨災(zāi)應(yīng)對任務(wù)；巨災(zāi)應(yīng)對面臨極度不確定性，巨災(zāi)應(yīng)對人員必須在不確定環(huán)境下進(jìn)行應(yīng)急決策；現(xiàn)有應(yīng)對資源、保障能力和應(yīng)對人員不能滿足應(yīng)對需求。因此，巨災(zāi)應(yīng)對組織隊(duì)伍面臨了巨大挑戰(zhàn)。 本文的主要研究對象是自然巨災(zāi)事件，主要研究內(nèi)容是巨災(zāi)事件爆發(fā)后應(yīng)急響應(yīng)階段的應(yīng)對任務(wù)規(guī)劃問題。 在對國內(nèi)外現(xiàn)有研究成果梳理和總結(jié)的基礎(chǔ)上，本文研究了巨災(zāi)應(yīng)對任務(wù)分解問題，在巨災(zāi)應(yīng)對的領(lǐng)域任務(wù)和基層任務(wù)的框架下，借鑒數(shù)學(xué)領(lǐng)域的不確定理論及不確定規(guī)劃理論，討論了巨災(zāi)應(yīng)對任務(wù)的不確定屬性；采用價(jià)值函數(shù)度量巨災(zāi)應(yīng)對任務(wù)目標(biāo)；在此基礎(chǔ)上，建立了巨災(zāi)應(yīng)對領(lǐng)域任務(wù)的不確定規(guī)劃模型和基層任務(wù)的不確定規(guī)劃模型，開發(fā)了不確定雙層任務(wù)規(guī)劃模型。 針對巨災(zāi)應(yīng)對任務(wù)中應(yīng)急資源需求缺口大、應(yīng)急保障能力嚴(yán)重不足的特征，本文采用過載規(guī)劃模型予以解決。借鑒軍事資源規(guī)劃領(lǐng)域的過載規(guī)劃研究成果，本文建立了過載規(guī)劃的數(shù)學(xué)模型，將其推廣到巨災(zāi)應(yīng)對的不確定領(lǐng)域，形成過載規(guī)劃的不確定規(guī)劃模型。 首先，建立巨災(zāi)應(yīng)對任務(wù)體系。本文借鑒了國內(nèi)外的災(zāi)害應(yīng)對任務(wù)體系，構(gòu)建了巨災(zāi)應(yīng)對的雙層任務(wù)體系，包含領(lǐng)域任務(wù)層面和基層任務(wù)層面。領(lǐng)域任務(wù)是針對上層或應(yīng)對指揮部的應(yīng)對任務(wù)，指上層的、中觀的、行業(yè)的應(yīng)對任務(wù)，主要內(nèi)容包括統(tǒng)籌策劃任務(wù)、資源調(diào)配任務(wù)和執(zhí)行協(xié)調(diào)任務(wù)等；基層任務(wù)是針對基層應(yīng)對執(zhí)行人員的應(yīng)對任務(wù)，指底層的、現(xiàn)場的、一線的應(yīng)對任務(wù)，主要內(nèi)容包括緊急拯救任務(wù)、事態(tài)控制任務(wù)和民生恢復(fù)任務(wù)。本文還討論了各應(yīng)對任務(wù)之間的邏輯關(guān)系和時(shí)間承接關(guān)系。 其次，構(gòu)造巨災(zāi)應(yīng)對任務(wù)的價(jià)值函數(shù)。研究了巨災(zāi)應(yīng)對任務(wù)的不確定屬性，根據(jù)不確定變量生成方法，建立了巨災(zāi)應(yīng)對任務(wù)的不確定變量。針對其不確定特性，構(gòu)造了巨災(zāi)應(yīng)對任務(wù)的價(jià)值函數(shù)，并以極大價(jià)值函數(shù)作為任務(wù)規(guī)劃的目標(biāo)。本文選取社會各界對巨災(zāi)應(yīng)急資源和保障能力的最低期望水平作為巨災(zāi)應(yīng)對任務(wù)的價(jià)值函數(shù)的參照點(diǎn)，依此定義了巨災(zāi)應(yīng)對的“收益”和“損失”；為了消除量綱的影響，定義了巨災(zāi)應(yīng)對任務(wù)的達(dá)成率，將其代入前景理論的價(jià)值函數(shù)即得到巨災(zāi)應(yīng)對任務(wù)的價(jià)值函數(shù)。 再次，建立巨災(zāi)應(yīng)對任務(wù)規(guī)劃模型。根據(jù)不確定規(guī)劃理論和過載規(guī)劃模型的建模機(jī)理，建立了巨災(zāi)應(yīng)對任務(wù)規(guī)劃的不確定規(guī)劃模型。統(tǒng)籌策劃規(guī)劃模型、資源調(diào)配規(guī)劃模型和運(yùn)輸支持任務(wù)規(guī)劃模型，構(gòu)成了巨災(zāi)應(yīng)對的領(lǐng)域任務(wù)規(guī)劃模型；本文以電力恢復(fù)任務(wù)規(guī)劃模型為例，建立了巨災(zāi)應(yīng)對的臨時(shí)供電任務(wù)規(guī)劃模型、電力樞紐搶修任務(wù)規(guī)劃模型和電力網(wǎng)絡(luò)搶修任務(wù)規(guī)劃模型，作為巨災(zāi)應(yīng)對的基層任務(wù)規(guī)劃模型的范例。本文采用了過程集成方法，將巨災(zāi)應(yīng)對的領(lǐng)域任務(wù)規(guī)劃模型和基層任務(wù)規(guī)劃模型集成為巨災(zāi)應(yīng)對的雙層任務(wù)規(guī)劃模型，還討論雙層任務(wù)規(guī)劃模型的Stachelberg-Nash均衡解的算法。 最后，本文以巨災(zāi)事件中大面積電網(wǎng)受損為依賴情景，嘗試設(shè)計(jì)一個(gè)巨災(zāi)應(yīng)對任務(wù)規(guī)劃的用例，開展相關(guān)試算，以驗(yàn)證本文所提出的巨災(zāi)應(yīng)對不確定規(guī)劃模型的理論方法和使用過程，證實(shí)模型的有效性和實(shí)用性。
[Abstract]:At the same time, human beings, while living, living and developing, must struggle unremittingly with all kinds of disaster threats, especially catastrophic events. Catastrophe events have caused huge economic losses to human society, a large number of casualties and damage to large-scale facilities. It has always been a social problem facing human beings. Effective catastrophe response can reduce the loss. Loss, reduction of casualties and protection of property. Therefore, the response to catastrophe is a matter of concern to the political, academic and social circles, and it is expected that substantial progress can be made in the study of catastrophe.
Catastrophe event is a "small probability and big impact" event, less occurrence, once the outbreak is the damage of disaster. Catastrophe events rarely appear or do not appear omen, disaster reporting time and decision time are very short; catastrophe response to the lack of historical case reference, preparation action scheme planning adaptability insufficient, conventional emergency decision-making mechanism It is not suitable for the catastrophe response task; the catastrophe response faces extreme uncertainty, and the catastrophe responders must make emergency decisions in the uncertain environment; the existing coping resources, the security ability and the response personnel cannot meet the needs. Therefore, the contingency of the catastrophe response organization faces great challenges.
The main research object of this paper is natural catastrophe. The main research content is the planning of coping tasks in the emergency response stage after catastrophic events.
On the basis of combing and summarizing the existing research results at home and abroad, this paper studies the problem of catastrophe response task decomposition. Under the framework of the field task and basic task of the catastrophe response, we use the uncertainty theory of mathematics and the uncertain planning theory to discuss the uncertainty attribute of the catastrophe response task, and use the value function measure. On the basis of the catastrophe, the uncertain planning model and the uncertain planning model of the task in the catastrophe response field are set up, and the uncertain two-layer task planning model is developed.
In view of the large demand gap of emergency resources and serious shortage of emergency support ability in the catastrophe response task, this paper adopts the overload planning model to solve the problem. In this paper, a mathematical model of overload planning is established for reference of the research results of overload planning in the field of military resources planning, which is extended to the uncertain field of catastrophe response and forms the overload. An uncertain programming model for planning.
First, the catastrophe response task system is set up. This paper draws on the disaster response task system at home and abroad, and constructs a double task system of catastrophe response, including the field task level and the basic task level. The field task is aimed at the upper level or the response task of the command department, which refers to the upper level, the middle view, the industry response task and the main content. It includes planning tasks, resource allocation tasks and implementation coordination tasks, and so on. Grass-roots task is to respond to the task of executive personnel at the grass-roots level, refers to the underlying, on-site, and front-line coping tasks. The main contents include emergency rescue task, state of affairs control task and people's livelihood restoration task. This paper also discusses the logic between the various tasks. The relationship between the edits and the time.
Secondly, the value function of the catastrophe response task is constructed. The uncertain attributes of the catastrophe response task are studied. According to the uncertainty variable generation method, the uncertain variables of the catastrophe response task are established. The value function of the catastrophe response task is constructed according to its uncertainty characteristics, and the maximum value function is used as the goal of the task planning. In order to eliminate the influence of the catastrophe, this paper defines the "income" and "loss" of catastrophe response by selecting the minimum expectation level of catastrophe emergency resources and security ability as the reference point of the value function of the catastrophe response task, and defines the rate of the catastrophe response to eliminate the dimensionless influence, and substituting it into the value function of the prospect theory. The value function of a catastrophe response task.
Thirdly, the catastrophe response task planning model is set up. According to the modeling mechanism of the uncertain planning theory and the overload planning model, the uncertain planning model of catastrophe response planning is established. The planning model of planning, the planning model of resource allocation and the transportation support task planning model constitute the domain task planning model of the catastrophe response. Taking the power recovery task planning model as an example, this paper sets up a temporary power supply task planning model for catastrophic response, the task planning model of the electric power hub and the task planning model of the power network, as an example of the grass-roots task planning model of the catastrophe response. This paper adopts the process integration method to deal with the field task of catastrophe response. The planning model and the grass-roots task planning model are integrated into the bilevel task planning model for catastrophic response, and the Stachelberg-Nash equilibrium solution of the bilevel task planning model is also discussed.
In the end, this paper tries to design a case of catastrophe response task planning with the damage of large area power grid in catastrophic event as the dependent scenario, and carries out the related trial calculation to verify the theoretical method and use process of the catastrophe response uncertainty planning model proposed in this paper, and verify the validity and practicability of the model.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：X4

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