本文選題：非常規(guī)突發(fā)事件 + 應(yīng)急決策��； 參考：《消防科學(xué)與技術(shù)》2016年02期

【摘要】：在"情景-應(yīng)對(duì)"決策模式下,依據(jù)案例推理技術(shù)的應(yīng)急決策模型,通過(guò)對(duì)非常規(guī)突發(fā)事件現(xiàn)場(chǎng)決策需求分析,確定了應(yīng)急決策的內(nèi)容并對(duì)決策內(nèi)容的表示、決策效能評(píng)價(jià)和決策方案修正進(jìn)行了研究,最終實(shí)現(xiàn)了針對(duì)目標(biāo)情景的應(yīng)急方案生成。以大連"7·16"爆炸火災(zāi)事故為例對(duì)基于決策需求的非常規(guī)突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急方案生成方法進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,實(shí)例研究表明:該方法生成的應(yīng)急方案針對(duì)性強(qiáng),可滿(mǎn)足現(xiàn)場(chǎng)不同層級(jí)決策要求,為不同決策主體提供準(zhǔn)確的、有針對(duì)性的應(yīng)急方案。
[Abstract]:Under the decision-making mode of "situation-response", the emergency decision model based on case-based reasoning technology is used to determine the content of emergency decision and the representation of the decision content through the analysis of the demand for the field decision-making of unconventional emergencies. The evaluation of decision effectiveness and the modification of decision scheme are studied, and the emergency scheme generation for the target scenario is realized. Taking "716" explosion and fire accident in Dalian as an example, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the method of generating emergency plan of unconventional emergencies based on decision demand. The case study shows that the emergency scheme generated by this method has strong pertinence. It can meet the requirements of different levels of decision-making and provide accurate and targeted emergency plan for different decision makers.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)人民武裝警察部隊(duì)學(xué)院;慶陽(yáng)市消防支隊(duì);
【基金】：武警部隊(duì)學(xué)院博士科研創(chuàng)新計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(BSKY201520)
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：X928
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本文編號(hào)：2073384