本文選題：核安全 + 風(fēng)險評估�。� 參考：《哈爾濱工程大學(xué)》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：在確保核安全的基礎(chǔ)上實現(xiàn)良好的經(jīng)濟性是核電長期可持續(xù)發(fā)展的動力,可靠性分析技術(shù)是保障核電廠安全性、可靠性和經(jīng)濟性的重要手段。可靠性分析技術(shù)不僅可以定量評估設(shè)備可靠性對核電廠安全性和可用性的貢獻,用于優(yōu)化定期測試和在役檢查周期,制定最佳的維修策略,而且可以揭示設(shè)備的故障原因和對系統(tǒng)運行和安全的影響,用于改進設(shè)計提高系統(tǒng)的固有可靠性和安全性,或者輔助運行人員進行故障診斷、制定應(yīng)急規(guī)程或防范措施以消除和緩解故障影響。 論文來源于國家自然科學(xué)基金和“十二五”核能開發(fā)項目,目的是在改進多層流模型(MFM)建模理論的基礎(chǔ)上,研究基于MFM的核電廠可靠性分析方法及其在故障診斷中的應(yīng)用,論文的主要工作如下： 針對傳統(tǒng)的MFM只能描述系統(tǒng)靜態(tài)特性的問題,論文首先通過引入邏輯門、邏輯屬性、基本目標(biāo)、時間點和信號等新概念,對MFM建模方法進行了補充和改進,改進后的MFM可以更清晰地描述系統(tǒng)和設(shè)備之間的可靠性邏輯關(guān)系,同時也可以描述系統(tǒng)和設(shè)備的階段任務(wù)和時序關(guān)系。 論文提出了利用MFM層次化流結(jié)構(gòu)進行可靠性分析的基本方法和特征量,提出了兩狀態(tài)系統(tǒng)可靠性分析方法和結(jié)合決策表分析的多狀態(tài)系統(tǒng)可靠性分析方法,提出了MFM生成GO-FLOW模型方法,可以分析有階段任務(wù)的動態(tài)系統(tǒng)可靠性問題。 為了進行可靠性定性分析,論文提出了基于MFM的故障模式及影響分析(FMEA)方法,遵循守恒原理沿著MFM的流結(jié)構(gòu)依次分析功能故障的原因和影響,方法簡便且不容易遺漏重要的失效模式。在此基礎(chǔ)上,論文給出了兩狀態(tài)系統(tǒng)MFM生成故障樹方法,通過將MFM功能元件依次生成故障樹模型、選擇頂事件后連接各元件故障樹模型并斷開邏輯環(huán)路,可以對導(dǎo)致頂事件發(fā)生的最小割集、元件的重要度和敏感度等可靠性指標(biāo)進行定性分析。 論文將MFM可靠性定性分析方法應(yīng)用于核電廠故障診斷領(lǐng)域,提出了一種綜合故障診斷技術(shù),集成了三種故障診斷方法：警報分析法根據(jù)守恒原理分析功能故障狀態(tài)之間的因果關(guān)系,通過排除結(jié)果性警報,在實現(xiàn)警報壓縮功能同時,給出可能的故障集；最小割集法以警報分析法為基礎(chǔ),通過進一步將多狀態(tài)MFM轉(zhuǎn)化為故障樹模型,可以求解系統(tǒng)當(dāng)前異常狀態(tài)的最小故障模式；針對警報限值的設(shè)定對警報分析法和最小割集法可能造成的影響,論文提出了基于Bayesian原理的不確定性推理方法,通過將具有不確定性因果關(guān)系的多狀態(tài)MFM轉(zhuǎn)化為故障樹模型,可以定量給出導(dǎo)致系統(tǒng)故障狀態(tài)的近似卻又合理的解釋,在操縱員利用深層次知識進行故障診斷時可以輔助決策。 論文對MFM圖形化建模平臺、基于MFM的可靠性分析程序和基于MFM的核電廠故障診斷系統(tǒng)進行了設(shè)計和開發(fā),可以通過簡單的鼠標(biāo)和鍵盤操作快速生成和修改系統(tǒng)MFM,通過一次分析可以評價多個系統(tǒng)目標(biāo)和組態(tài)變化,并可處理多狀態(tài)、時延、時序和階段任務(wù)等問題,可以分析設(shè)備故障原因及其對系統(tǒng)可運行性和安全性的影響,綜合了基于目標(biāo)、基于規(guī)則、基于風(fēng)險和基于專家經(jīng)驗的特點,采用統(tǒng)一的建模語言和建模平臺,輔助操縱員全面了解系統(tǒng)運行要求,進行推理判斷并深入了解系統(tǒng)設(shè)計和運行中的薄弱環(huán)節(jié),具有良好的工程實踐前景。
[Abstract]:Achieving good economy on the basis of ensuring nuclear safety is the motive force of long-term sustainable development of nuclear power. Reliability analysis technology is an important means to ensure the safety, reliability and economy of nuclear power plants. Reliability analysis technology can not only quantify the contribution of equipment reliability to the safety and availability of nuclear power plants, but also can be used to optimize the determination of nuclear power plant. The period test and the service inspection cycle, make the best maintenance strategy, and can reveal the cause of the failure of the equipment and the effect on the system operation and safety. It can improve the inherent reliability and safety of the design to improve the system, or assist the operator to diagnose the fault, make emergency procedures or precautions to eliminate and alleviate the fault. Ringing.
The thesis comes from the National Natural Science Foundation and the "12th Five-Year" nuclear energy development project. On the basis of improving the multi-layer flow model (MFM) modeling theory, the paper studies the reliability analysis method of nuclear power plant based on MFM and its application in fault diagnosis. The main work of this paper is as follows:
In view of the problem that the traditional MFM can only describe the static characteristics of the system, the paper first supplements and improves the MFM modeling method by introducing the new concepts such as logic gate, logical attribute, basic target, time point and signal. The improved MFM can describe the reliability logic relationship between the system and the equipment more clearly, and can also describe the reliability of the system. The phase task and time sequence relationship of the system and equipment.
The paper puts forward the basic method and characteristic quantity of reliability analysis by using MFM hierarchical flow structure. The reliability analysis method of two state system and the method of multi state system reliability analysis with decision table analysis are put forward, and the method of generating GO-FLOW model by MFM is put forward, which can be used to analyze the dynamic system reliability problem of the stage task.
In order to carry out the qualitative analysis of reliability, the paper puts forward the fault mode and influence analysis (FMEA) method based on MFM, and follows the conservation principle along the flow structure of MFM to analyze the cause and influence of the functional failure in turn. The method is simple and not easy to omit the important failure mode. On this basis, the paper gives the fault tree of the two state system MFM. Methods the fault tree model of MFM functional components is generated in turn, and the fault tree model of each element is connected after the top event, and the logic loop is disconnected. The reliability index, such as the minimum cut set which causes the top event, the importance and sensitivity of the element, can be analyzed qualitatively.
In this paper, the MFM reliability qualitative analysis method is applied to the field of nuclear power plant fault diagnosis. A comprehensive fault diagnosis technology is proposed, and three kinds of fault diagnosis methods are integrated. The alarm analysis method is used to analyze the causality between the functional failure states according to the conservation principle, and by eliminating the result alerts, the alarm compression function is also given. The minimum cut set method is based on the alarm analysis method. By further converting the multi state MFM into a fault tree model, the minimum fault mode of the current abnormal state of the system can be solved. The paper puts forward the principle of Bayesian based on the effect of the warning limit set on the alarm analysis method and the minimum cut set method. By converting the multi state MFM with uncertain causality into a fault tree model, the method of uncertain reasoning can give an approximate but reasonable explanation for the failure state of the system. It can assist the decision when the manipulator uses deep knowledge to diagnose the fault.
The paper designs and develops the MFM graphical modeling platform, the MFM based reliability analysis program and the MFM based nuclear power plant fault diagnosis system. It can quickly generate and modify the system MFM through a simple mouse and keyboard operation. By one analysis, multiple system targets and configuration changes can be evaluated, and multi state and delay can be processed. The problem of time series and stage tasks can analyze the cause of equipment failure and its influence on the system's runtime and security. It combines the characteristics of target, rule based, based on risk and expert experience, and uses a unified modeling language and modeling platform to assist the operator to fully understand the system operation requirements and to conduct reasoning and judgment. An in-depth understanding of the weaknesses in system design and operation has good prospects for engineering practice.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工程大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：TL364

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