發(fā)布時間：2018-06-24 20:42

  本文選題：生命線工程 + 級聯(lián)失效�。� 參考：《大連理工大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：生命線系統(tǒng)是維系現(xiàn)代城市基本功能和區(qū)域經(jīng)濟的基礎性工程設施,是城市的動脈和神經(jīng)。生命線工程關(guān)系著國家安全和利益,對國家及地區(qū)正常管理功能的發(fā)揮具有重大意義。然而生命線工程多為內(nèi)部關(guān)聯(lián)緊密的網(wǎng)絡系統(tǒng),災害作用下的生命線系統(tǒng)的破壞模式多為某處的一個微小擾動,通過節(jié)點之間的連接關(guān)系引起其他點發(fā)生故障,觸發(fā)造成整個系統(tǒng)的連鎖反應,最終導致系統(tǒng)中的大部分甚至整個網(wǎng)絡的崩潰的災難性后果。從靜態(tài)角度研究系統(tǒng)的失效問題是遠遠不夠的,有必要從動態(tài)的角度,建立一個關(guān)于生命線系統(tǒng)級聯(lián)失效的普適性模型,研究其在災害情形下的運行機制,從而為生命線工程的保護,政府部門的防災減災提供確定的方向和有理有據(jù)的決策支持。 本文在綜述國內(nèi)外生命線工程研究歷史和現(xiàn)狀的基礎上,引入節(jié)點綜合重要度概念,從節(jié)點在網(wǎng)絡結(jié)構(gòu)中的空間位置和功能作用兩個方面,利用可變模糊聚類迭代模型對生命線網(wǎng)絡節(jié)點單元的重要度進行分析,確定網(wǎng)絡關(guān)鍵節(jié)點。而后依據(jù)組織結(jié)構(gòu)中的相關(guān)概念,把生命線系統(tǒng)的節(jié)點關(guān)系形式劃分為直接相連的兩個節(jié)點間下游節(jié)點對上游節(jié)點的直接從屬關(guān)系、直接相連的兩個節(jié)點間上游節(jié)點對下游節(jié)點的直接控制關(guān)系、間接相連的兩個節(jié)點間下游節(jié)點對上游節(jié)點的間接從屬關(guān)系、間接相連的兩個節(jié)點間上游節(jié)點對下游點的間接控制關(guān)系,處在并列支路上的高級別上并列、同級別上并列關(guān)系幾種形式,利用相鄰模糊標度法定量計算出各種節(jié)點連接形式對應的關(guān)聯(lián)因子,綜合網(wǎng)絡整體關(guān)聯(lián)性,確定節(jié)點關(guān)聯(lián)度,建立基于多維關(guān)聯(lián)的生命線系統(tǒng)節(jié)點關(guān)聯(lián)度模型。在災害蔓延動力學理論基礎之上,結(jié)合生命線系統(tǒng)的網(wǎng)絡結(jié)構(gòu)特征,利用節(jié)點關(guān)聯(lián)度對已有蔓延動力學模型中的節(jié)點連接強度系數(shù)進行改進。從系統(tǒng)單元間的關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系和考慮時間因素的動態(tài)傳播入手,全面考慮生命線系統(tǒng)這類實體網(wǎng)絡中資源分配的特征,建立一個生命線網(wǎng)絡級聯(lián)失效模型,研究災害在網(wǎng)絡的動態(tài)傳播問題,考察節(jié)點連接形式和網(wǎng)絡結(jié)構(gòu)特征對生命線網(wǎng)絡級聯(lián)失效規(guī)模的影響。 最后,通過對一段供水網(wǎng)絡的分析和數(shù)值模擬研究,演示了本論文所構(gòu)建模型的使用過程。實驗結(jié)果表明,節(jié)點間的關(guān)聯(lián)度放大了系統(tǒng)級聯(lián)失效,而且當關(guān)鍵節(jié)點間接方式多為直接從屬與控制等高關(guān)聯(lián)度的網(wǎng)絡發(fā)生故障時,網(wǎng)絡級聯(lián)失效效果更加明顯,說明節(jié)點關(guān)聯(lián)度是影響生命線系統(tǒng)災害蔓延情況的重要因素。并且模擬結(jié)果與這些實際生命線系統(tǒng)的特征一致,表明所建立的模型可以有效地模擬生命線系統(tǒng)級聯(lián)失效過程,給未來的生命線工程保護工作提供理論依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Lifeline system is the basic engineering facility to maintain the basic function and regional economy of the modern city, it is the artery and nerve of the city. The lifeline engineering is related to the national security and interest, and is of great significance to the function of the normal management of the country and the region. The failure mode of the lifeline system is a small disturbance in a certain place, which causes the failure of other points through the connection between nodes, triggering the chain reaction of the whole system, and eventually causing the catastrophic consequences of the collapse of most and even the entire network. Far from enough, it is necessary to establish a universal model for the cascading failure of lifeline systems from a dynamic point of view, and to study the operating mechanism of the lifeline system in a disaster situation, thus providing a definite direction and a reasonable decision support for the protection of lifeline engineering and the disaster prevention and reduction of the government departments.
On the basis of the history and present situation of the research of lifeline engineering at home and abroad, this paper introduces the concept of node comprehensive importance. From the two aspects of the spatial position and function of the node in the network structure, this paper uses the variable fuzzy clustering iterative model to analyze the weight of the lifeline network node unit, and then determines the key node of the network. According to the related concepts in the organization structure, the node relationship form of the lifeline system is divided into direct subordinate relations between the two nodes directly connected to the upstream nodes, the direct control relationship between the upstream nodes of the two nodes directly connected to the downstream nodes, and the upstream nodes connected by the downstream nodes of the two nodes indirectly connected to the upstream nodes. The indirect subordinate relation of point, the indirect control relationship between the upstream nodes of the two nodes which are indirectly connected, the high level on the parallel branch and the parallel relationship in several forms. The node association degree is determined, and the node association degree model of lifeline system based on multidimensional association is established. Based on the theory of disaster spread dynamics, combining the network structure characteristics of lifeline system, the node connection intensity coefficient in the existing spread dynamics model is improved by the node association degree. The relationship between the system units is obtained. Considering the dynamic propagation of time factors, we consider the characteristics of resource allocation in lifeline systems, establish a lifeline network cascading failure model, study the dynamic propagation of disaster in the network, and investigate the effect of node connection and network structure characteristics on the cascading failure scale of lifeline network.
Finally, through the analysis and numerical simulation of a section of water supply network, the application process of the model is demonstrated. The experimental results show that the correlation degree between nodes amplifies the cascading failure of the system, and the network cascade is lost when the key nodes are mostly directly subordinate and controlled by the high correlation network. The effect is more obvious, indicating that the node association degree is an important factor affecting the lifeline system disaster spread, and the simulation results are consistent with the characteristics of these actual lifeline systems. It shows that the model can effectively simulate the cascading failure process of lifeline system, and provide a theoretical basis for the future lifeline engineering protection work. According to it.
【學位授予單位】：大連理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：TU99;X913.4

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