本文選題：災(zāi)害 + 生命線系統(tǒng)　； 參考：《大連理工大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：生命線系統(tǒng)是保障城市“生命”正常運轉(zhuǎn)的中樞系統(tǒng),是維系現(xiàn)代城市功能與區(qū)域經(jīng)濟功能的基礎(chǔ)性工程設(shè)施,它是對城市供水、供電、通信、交通、供氣、輸油等關(guān)鍵工程系統(tǒng)的統(tǒng)稱。 自然災(zāi)害危害著人類生命財產(chǎn)和生存條件,城市在遭受災(zāi)害后,供水、供電、通信、交通、供氣等關(guān)鍵生命線系統(tǒng)因遭到破壞而喪失服務(wù)能力,給人民生活帶來巨大的痛苦和災(zāi)難,同時還可能進一步引發(fā)次生災(zāi)害,使整個城市陷入癱瘓。近年來災(zāi)害頻繁發(fā)生,使得研究災(zāi)害環(huán)境下生命線系統(tǒng)的失效模式日漸重要。災(zāi)害作用下生命線系統(tǒng)的破壞模式多為由于網(wǎng)絡(luò)中某處遭受破壞(自然因素或人為原因)引起整個網(wǎng)絡(luò)失效的連鎖反應(yīng),嚴重時可導(dǎo)致整個系統(tǒng)癱瘓,造成崩潰的災(zāi)難性后果。但目前國內(nèi)外有關(guān)災(zāi)害環(huán)境下生命線系統(tǒng)失效模式及如何提高其抗災(zāi)可靠性方面的研究成果較少且存在一定問題。 為此,本文以生命線系統(tǒng)的級聯(lián)失效路徑和節(jié)點重要度兩個方面作為切入點,對災(zāi)害環(huán)境下生命線系統(tǒng)的失效模式進行了深入探討。 首先,提出了災(zāi)害環(huán)境下生命線系統(tǒng)節(jié)點失效關(guān)聯(lián)度的概念并給出了確定方法。以供水管網(wǎng)為例,使用基于EPANET2.0二次開發(fā)的災(zāi)害模擬程序?qū)芫W(wǎng)遭受的災(zāi)害環(huán)境進行動態(tài)模擬,應(yīng)用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析方法,計算并比較網(wǎng)絡(luò)中節(jié)點之間的失效關(guān)聯(lián)度,分析了資源供給特性和網(wǎng)絡(luò)拓撲特性兩方面對供水管網(wǎng)級聯(lián)失效過程的影響。在此基礎(chǔ)上,又對災(zāi)害環(huán)境下生命線系統(tǒng)的級聯(lián)失效路徑進行了研究。定義了生命線系統(tǒng)級聯(lián)失效路徑和關(guān)鍵失效路徑的概念,提出了確定級聯(lián)失效路徑和關(guān)鍵失效路徑的方法,通過實例分析對該方法的正確性和實用性進行了驗證。利用該方法識別出生命線系統(tǒng)的關(guān)鍵失效路徑,從而可以在有成本等限制的條件下,僅僅通過從功能上提高關(guān)鍵失效路徑的安全冗余來提高整個生命線系統(tǒng)的抗災(zāi)可靠性。 其次,提出了一種災(zāi)害環(huán)境下生命線系統(tǒng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)節(jié)點重要度的評價方法。以供水管網(wǎng)為例,綜合考慮節(jié)點的網(wǎng)絡(luò)拓撲結(jié)構(gòu)和資源供給兩方面因素并考慮災(zāi)害作用下生命線系統(tǒng)的級聯(lián)失效特性選取評價指標,建立了供水系統(tǒng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)節(jié)點重要度評價指標體系,運用可變模糊聚類分析方法,對實例供水系統(tǒng)節(jié)點進行了聚類分析。結(jié)果表明：通過聚類分析結(jié)果可以客觀地找出生命線系統(tǒng)中的關(guān)鍵節(jié)點,進而通過提高這些關(guān)鍵節(jié)點的功能冗余,可以從源頭上避免災(zāi)害作用下由于網(wǎng)絡(luò)中關(guān)鍵節(jié)點損壞引發(fā)級聯(lián)失效造成整個網(wǎng)絡(luò)崩潰的嚴重后果,從而提高整個生命線系統(tǒng)的抗災(zāi)可靠性。
[Abstract]:Lifeline system is the central system to guarantee the normal operation of city "life" and the basic engineering facility to maintain the function of modern city and regional economy. It is to supply water, electricity, communication, traffic and gas to the city. Natural disaster endangers human life, property and living conditions. After disaster, the key lifeline systems such as water supply, power supply, communication, transportation, gas supply, etc., are damaged in cities and have lost their service capacity. It brings great suffering and disaster to people's life, and it may lead to secondary disasters and paralyze the whole city. In recent years, the frequent occurrence of disasters makes it more and more important to study the failure mode of lifeline system in disaster environment. The failure mode of lifeline system under the action of disaster is mostly the chain reaction of the whole network failure caused by the damage (natural factor or artificial reason) somewhere in the network, and when it is serious, the whole system can be paralyzed, resulting in the catastrophic consequence of collapse. However, there are few researches on the failure mode of lifeline system in disaster environment and how to improve its anti-disaster reliability at home and abroad. In this paper, the cascade failure path and node importance of lifeline system are taken as the breakthrough point, and the failure mode of lifeline system in disaster environment is discussed. The concept of node failure correlation degree of lifeline system in disaster environment is put forward and the method of determining it is given. Taking the water supply network as an example, the disaster simulation program based on EPANET2.0 is used to dynamically simulate the disaster environment suffered by the network. The grey relational analysis method is used to calculate and compare the failure correlation degree between nodes in the network. The effects of resource supply characteristics and network topology characteristics on the cascade failure process of water supply network are analyzed. On this basis, the cascade failure path of lifeline system in disaster environment is studied. The concepts of cascade failure path and critical failure path of lifeline system are defined. The method of determining cascade failure path and critical failure path is proposed. The correctness and practicability of this method are verified by an example. The key failure path of lifeline system can be identified by this method, so that the key failure path of lifeline system can be identified under the condition of limited cost and so on. The reliability of the whole lifeline system is improved only by improving the safety redundancy of the critical failure path. Secondly, an evaluation method of the importance of the lifeline network nodes in the disaster environment is proposed. Taking the water supply network as an example, considering the network topology and resource supply of nodes and considering the cascade failure characteristics of lifeline system under disaster, the evaluation index is selected. The evaluation index system of network node importance of water supply system is established, and the cluster analysis of the node of water supply system is carried out by using variable fuzzy cluster analysis method. The results show that the key nodes in the lifeline system can be found objectively by clustering analysis, and then the functional redundancy of these key nodes can be improved. It can avoid the serious consequences of the cascade failure caused by the damage of the critical nodes in the network from the source, thus improving the disaster resistance reliability of the whole lifeline system.
【學位授予單位】：大連理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：X913.4

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 王欣;姚佩陽;周翔翔;張杰勇;;指揮信息系統(tǒng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)節(jié)點重要度評估方法[J];北京郵電大學學報;2011年04期

2 陳玲俐,李杰;供水管網(wǎng)滲漏分析研究[J];地震工程與工程振動;2003年01期

3 李杰;劉威;;大型城市管網(wǎng)抗震可靠性分析與優(yōu)化[J];地震工程與工程振動;2006年03期

4 李杰;衛(wèi)書麟;劉威;;基于模擬退火算法的供水管網(wǎng)抗震優(yōu)化設(shè)計[J];地震工程與工程振動;2009年03期

5 李宏男;柳春光;;生命線工程系統(tǒng)減災(zāi)研究趨勢與展望[J];大連理工大學學報;2005年06期

6 陳守煜;袁晶?;李亞偉;;基于可變模糊集的模糊聚類迭代模型及其應(yīng)用[J];大連理工大學學報;2008年06期

7 陳守煜;;可變模糊聚類及模式識別統(tǒng)一理論與模型[J];大連理工大學學報;2009年02期

8 陳守煜;李敏;王淑英;;可變模糊聚類迭代模型合理性分析與應(yīng)用檢驗[J];大連理工大學學報;2009年06期

9 柳春光;何雙華;;震后供水系統(tǒng)破壞狀態(tài)模擬及功能分析[J];大連理工大學學報;2010年05期

10 丁明;韓平平;;小世界電網(wǎng)的連鎖故障傳播機理分析[J];電力系統(tǒng)自動化;2007年18期

相關(guān)博士學位論文 前4條

1 張明媛;城市承災(zāi)能力及災(zāi)害綜合風險評價研究[D];大連理工大學;2008年

2 李勇;物流保障網(wǎng)絡(luò)級聯(lián)失效抗毀性研究[D];國防科學技術(shù)大學;2009年

3 何雙華;供水管網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)抗震可靠性分析及加固優(yōu)化研究[D];大連理工大學;2009年

4 王建偉;網(wǎng)絡(luò)上的相繼故障模型研究[D];大連理工大學;2010年

相關(guān)碩士學位論文 前1條

1 魯娟;給水管網(wǎng)脆弱性評估研究[D];合肥工業(yè)大學;2007年

，

本文編號：2004016