本文選題：安全風(fēng)險 + 安全評價��； 參考：《中國礦業(yè)大學(xué)》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：煤礦的安全問題已經(jīng)成為煤礦可持續(xù)發(fā)展的頭等大事，而如何提前發(fā)現(xiàn)并判別潛在的安全風(fēng)險是煤礦安全問題的重中之重。本文在理論分析與實際調(diào)研的基礎(chǔ)上，主要解決兩個問題。一是解決安全風(fēng)險的評價問題，即判斷煤礦目前是否存在安全風(fēng)險，主要用于定期判斷煤礦目前的安全風(fēng)險狀況。二是解決安全風(fēng)險的預(yù)警問題，即如何通過一定的預(yù)警指標(biāo)與預(yù)警區(qū)間進行日常性的安全風(fēng)險判斷與提示。 首先，論文在對相關(guān)安全風(fēng)險評價與預(yù)警理論綜述的基礎(chǔ)上，主要研究用于煤礦的安全風(fēng)險評價原理與方法以及安全風(fēng)險預(yù)警理論與方法，為后續(xù)研究提供理論與方法基礎(chǔ)。論文對目前常用的風(fēng)險評價方法與預(yù)警方法進了全面的總結(jié)，分析了這些方法的優(yōu)點與確定，并總結(jié)了對煤炭企業(yè)安全風(fēng)險評價與預(yù)警的適用性。對方法的總結(jié)力求全面與詳細(xì)，為后文方法的選擇提供幫助。另外，對風(fēng)險評價與預(yù)警的理論也進行了一定的梳理，歸納出能夠用于煤礦風(fēng)險評價與預(yù)警的共性理論。然后，根據(jù)煤礦安全風(fēng)險產(chǎn)生的特殊性，分析了選用安全風(fēng)險評價、預(yù)警理論與方法所遵循的選擇，并依據(jù)扎根理論，構(gòu)建了煤礦安全風(fēng)險評價體系與預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的建立步驟。 第二，對煤礦安全生產(chǎn)風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo)體系與權(quán)重進行設(shè)計與確定。在分析煤礦生產(chǎn)的復(fù)雜性、動態(tài)變化性、隨機性、災(zāi)害事故的關(guān)聯(lián)性等風(fēng)險特點的基礎(chǔ)上，從科學(xué)性、系統(tǒng)性、全面性、易評價性、定性與定量相結(jié)合、獨立性等六個方面提出了煤礦安全生產(chǎn)風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo)設(shè)計的原則。并在典型案例分析、文獻研究的基礎(chǔ)上，通過進行訪談和調(diào)研，在廣泛征求專家意見的基礎(chǔ)上，基于“人、機、物、環(huán)、法”的理論框架，建立了人力資源配置、規(guī)章制度及執(zhí)行、作業(yè)環(huán)境、地測及防治水、一通三防、防止煤與瓦斯突出、采掘系統(tǒng)、機運系統(tǒng)、煤礦固有風(fēng)險等九大類煤礦安全生產(chǎn)風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo)體系，并進一步進行了細(xì)化為105個具體指標(biāo)。另外，在此基礎(chǔ)上，進行了煤礦安全生產(chǎn)風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo)權(quán)重確定。主要對整個安全風(fēng)險評價體系中權(quán)重進行計算，并歸納確定安全風(fēng)險評價標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。依據(jù)調(diào)研問卷，使用網(wǎng)絡(luò)層次分析法進行各個安全風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo)權(quán)重的確定。并在權(quán)重確定的基礎(chǔ)上，建立了安全風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo)的評價標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。 第三，構(gòu)建了煤礦安全風(fēng)險預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系與預(yù)警機制。為了達到管理層日常安全管理的目的，論文依據(jù)安全風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo)與調(diào)研結(jié)果，使用扎根理論對安全評價指標(biāo)進行遴選，確定安全風(fēng)險預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系，并依據(jù)聚類分析與判別分析確定安全預(yù)警單一指標(biāo)預(yù)警區(qū)間與綜合預(yù)警判別函數(shù)。首先從人力資源方面、安全投入效率與安全管理制度實施效率等三個方面建立衡量安全風(fēng)險的預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系；其次依據(jù)安全風(fēng)險預(yù)警指標(biāo)建立針對單一指標(biāo)的預(yù)警區(qū)間，確定正常、輕警、中警與重警四個預(yù)警區(qū)間的臨界值；再次使用FISHER判別模型構(gòu)建安全風(fēng)險綜合預(yù)警判斷函數(shù)，依據(jù)函數(shù)與煤礦現(xiàn)實指標(biāo)狀況判斷煤礦目前所處的安全風(fēng)險警度；最后依托煤礦安全風(fēng)險預(yù)警體系，，建立了煤礦安全風(fēng)險預(yù)警判別與應(yīng)對機制。 第四，歸納煤礦安全風(fēng)險預(yù)警的具體方法，并構(gòu)建用于安全風(fēng)險預(yù)警的配套機制與管理系統(tǒng)。主要歸納了適用于煤礦安全風(fēng)險預(yù)警的具體方法，是以預(yù)警指標(biāo)與預(yù)警區(qū)間作為基礎(chǔ)的，并在此基礎(chǔ)上，構(gòu)建了與安全風(fēng)險預(yù)警體系相配套的實施機制，包括在人力資源方面、安全投入方面與安全制度構(gòu)建等方面的實施機制。同時，還構(gòu)建了用于實施安全風(fēng)險預(yù)警體系的信息管理系統(tǒng)。 第五，選擇袁店煤礦作為研究對象，具體對煤礦安全生產(chǎn)風(fēng)險預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系進行測試。主要將安全風(fēng)險預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系應(yīng)用到典型煤礦應(yīng)用，分析其適用性。具體根據(jù)該煤礦2011年的數(shù)據(jù)計算得到安全風(fēng)險預(yù)警指標(biāo)的具體數(shù)值，對應(yīng)單一指標(biāo)的預(yù)警區(qū)間，分別判斷該礦在人力資源、安全投入與安全制度三個方面所處的警度。然后，對綜合風(fēng)險的測試從兩個方面著手進行。一方面，使用FISHER判別模型，將具體預(yù)警指標(biāo)代入，具體得到目前安全風(fēng)險的總體警度。該方法能夠比較直觀地判斷安全風(fēng)險的警度狀態(tài)。但該方法也存在一定的弊端，F(xiàn)ISHER判別模型需要進行定期更新，使得模型能夠非常接近于現(xiàn)狀。另一方面，使用粗糙集進行經(jīng)驗衡量，具體依據(jù)對單項指標(biāo)警度的判斷，聯(lián)合判斷總體安全風(fēng)險的警度。在實際應(yīng)用中，一般將兩種方法綜合起來使用，以期達到更好的預(yù)警效果。
[Abstract]:The safety problem of coal mine has become the top priority of the sustainable development of coal mine, and how to find and distinguish the potential safety risk ahead of time is the most important problem of coal mine safety. On the basis of theoretical analysis and practical investigation, this paper mainly solves two problems. One is to solve the evaluation problem of safety risk, that is to judge whether the coal mine is at present. There is a security risk, which is mainly used to determine the current safety risk status of the coal mine. Two is to solve the early warning problem of security risk, that is, how to judge and prompt the daily safety risk through a certain early warning index and early warning interval.
First, on the basis of the related safety risk assessment and early warning theory, this paper mainly studies the principle and method of safety risk assessment for coal mine and the theory and method of safety risk early warning, and provides the basis for the follow-up research. The advantages and determination of these methods are analyzed, and the applicability of the safety risk assessment and early warning of coal enterprises is summed up. The summary of the methods is summarized and detailed to provide help for the selection of the later methods. In addition, the theory of risk assessment and early warning is also given a certain comb, and it can be concluded that it can be used to evaluate and predict the risk of coal mine. Then, according to the particularity of the coal mine safety risk, the selection of the safety risk assessment, the early warning theory and the method are analyzed, and the establishment steps of the coal mine safety risk assessment system and the early warning system are built on the basis of the grounded theory.
Second, design and determine the risk evaluation index system and weight of coal mine safety production. On the basis of analyzing the risk characteristics of coal mine production complexity, dynamic change, randomness, and the relevance of disaster accidents, it is put forward from six aspects: scientific, systematic, comprehensive, easily evaluative, qualitative and quantitative, and independence. On the basis of typical case analysis and literature research, on the basis of interviews and research, on the basis of extensive consultation and research, based on the theoretical framework of "human, machine, material, ring, and law", the allocation of human resources, rules and regulations and implementation, operating environment, survey and prevention and control of water are established. In order to prevent coal and gas outburst, coal and gas outburst, mining system, machine transportation system and inherent risk of coal mine, it has been further refined into 105 specific indexes. On the other hand, the weight of risk assessment index of coal mine safety production is determined. In the price system, the weight is calculated and the safety risk evaluation standard is determined. According to the questionnaire, the weight of each safety risk evaluation index is determined by the network analytic hierarchy process. On the basis of the weight determination, the evaluation criteria of the safety risk evaluation index are established.
Third, the early warning index system and early warning mechanism of coal mine safety risk are constructed. In order to achieve the goal of daily safety management, the paper selects the safety evaluation index based on the safety risk evaluation index and research result, uses the grounded theory to determine the safety risk early warning index system, and according to the cluster analysis and discriminant analysis. Set up a single index warning interval and comprehensive early warning discriminant function. First, we set up an early warning index system to measure security risk from three aspects, such as human resources, safety input efficiency and safety management system implementation efficiency, and then establish an early warning interval based on a single index according to the early warning index of safety risk. The critical value of four warning intervals of the light police, the central police and the heavy police, and the FISHER discriminant model is used to construct the comprehensive early warning function of the safety risk, and the safety risk alarm of the coal mine is judged according to the function of the coal mine and the actual index of the coal mine. Finally, the early warning system of the coal mine safety risk is used to establish the early warning of the safety risk of the coal mine. And coping mechanism.
Fourth, generalizes the concrete methods of the early warning of the coal mine safety risk, and constructs the supporting mechanism and management system for the early warning of safety risk. It mainly summarizes the specific methods applicable to the early warning of the coal mine safety risk, which is based on the early warning index and the early warning interval, and on this basis, constructs the matching with the security risk early warning system. The implementation mechanism includes the implementation mechanism of human resources, security input and security system construction. At the same time, the information management system for the implementation of the security risk early warning system is also constructed.
Fifth, to choose Yuandian coal mine as the research object, to test the risk early-warning index system of coal mine safety production, and apply the safety risk early warning index system to the typical coal mine application and analyze its applicability. The concrete value of the early warning index of the safety risk is calculated according to the 2011 data of the coal mine, corresponding to the single index. The standard warning interval is used to judge the degree of the mine in the three aspects of human resources, safety investment and safety system. Then, the test of comprehensive risk is carried out from two aspects. On the one hand, the FISHER discriminant model is used to replace the specific early warning index, and the overall alarm of the current security risk is obtained. This method can be compared. The alarm state of security risk is judged intuitively, but the method also has some drawbacks. The FISHER discriminant model needs to be updated regularly so that the model can be very close to the present situation. On the other hand, the rough set is used to measure the experience, and the alarm degree of the overall security risk is determined according to the judgment of the single index. In the application, two methods are generally used together to achieve better early warning effect.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國礦業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：X936

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本文編號：1999042