本文選題：灰色災(zāi)變模型 + 回歸分析模型��； 參考：《火力與指揮控制》2016年11期

【摘要】：為提高航空裝備不安全事件的預(yù)測水平,減少事故造成的人員和財產(chǎn)損失,將灰色災(zāi)變與回歸分析方法有機結(jié)合,提出一種航空裝備不安全事件的組合預(yù)測方法。該方法先從數(shù)據(jù)中找出災(zāi)變點(災(zāi)變發(fā)生的日期),通過建立這些災(zāi)變點的灰色災(zāi)變模型預(yù)測未來災(zāi)變點,再對這些災(zāi)變點上的值構(gòu)建灰色預(yù)測模型,計算出未來災(zāi)變點的災(zāi)變值;而對于非災(zāi)變點,可建立合適的回歸分析模型進(jìn)行預(yù)測。為驗證其可行性,在某飛行訓(xùn)練基地的航空裝備不安全事件頻數(shù)的數(shù)據(jù)基礎(chǔ)上,建立了灰色災(zāi)變回歸組合預(yù)測模型,結(jié)果表明,模型對2001年~2004年預(yù)測的相對誤差平均控制在6.87%以內(nèi),所建立的組合模型,能夠比較客觀地反映航空裝備安全的未來實際狀況。
[Abstract]:In order to improve the prediction level of aviation equipment unsafe events and reduce the loss of personnel and property caused by accidents, a combined forecasting method of aviation equipment unsafe events is put forward by combining grey disaster and regression analysis. The method first finds out the disaster point (the date of occurrence of the disaster) from the data, then establishes the grey disaster model of these disaster points to predict the future disaster point, and then constructs the grey prediction model for the value of these disaster points. The catastrophe value of the future disaster point is calculated, and for the non-catastrophic point, a suitable regression analysis model can be established to predict it. In order to verify its feasibility, based on the frequency data of aviation equipment unsafe events in a flight training base, a grey disaster regression combined prediction model is established. The results show that, The average relative error predicted by the model from 2001 to 2004 is less than 6.87%. The combined model can objectively reflect the actual situation of aviation equipment safety in the future.
【作者單位】： 西京學(xué)院;空軍工程大學(xué)空管領(lǐng)航學(xué)院;空軍西安飛行學(xué)院;
【分類號】：V328

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