本文選題：復飛 + 風險　； 參考：《中國民航大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：為了減少復飛風險、提高復飛的安全性,本研究將對民航飛機復飛過程風險的影響因素進行更加全面系統(tǒng)地研究分析。本研究收集了2007年至2015年官方發(fā)布完整調(diào)查報告的35起復飛事故,并采用粗糙集理論和HTA-HET理論對飛機復飛風險的影響因素進行研究。在復飛風險影響因素的分類方面,將復飛過程進行拆分并結(jié)合SHEL模型和Reason模型對復飛風險的原因進行了具體分析,研究了復飛事故的形成機理,將導致復飛風險的影響因素按機組、管制、天氣、機械、航空公司和航空局六大方面進行了歸納。根據(jù)復飛風險影響因素的分類結(jié)果建立復飛風險的影響因素評價指標體系,統(tǒng)計各項指標的數(shù)據(jù)并利用粗糙集理論對復飛風險的影響因素進行評價分析,計算各項指標的重要性。結(jié)果表明:機組因素是對復飛風險影響最大的因素;航空公司因素對復飛風險的影響次之;天氣因素、機械因素和管制因素也對復飛風險有所影響。論文還利用HTA與HET相結(jié)合的方法對導致復飛風險的飛行員差錯進行了對比分析,從復飛事故的調(diào)查報告中統(tǒng)計飛行員差錯的客觀數(shù)據(jù),得到飛行員差錯的客觀分析結(jié)果,最后與Wen-Chin Li利用相同理論得到的飛行員差錯的主觀分析結(jié)果進行對比,結(jié)果表明:兩種分析結(jié)果所得到的飛行員差錯及其差錯類型/模式都有所區(qū)別�；谏鲜龇治�,根據(jù)復飛風險影響因素的評價分析結(jié)果和對比分析結(jié)果,從各個方面提出復飛風險的預防措施;根據(jù)復飛事故報告的安全建議提出針對復飛程序、航空器運營人方面的建議措施。
[Abstract]:In order to reduce the risk of overtaking and improve the safety of overflight, this study will make a more comprehensive and systematic study and analysis on the factors affecting the risk of overtaking of civil aviation aircraft. This study collected 35 complete investigation reports from 2007 to 2015, and used rough set theory and HTA-HET theory to study the influencing factors of aircraft overflight risk. In the classification of factors affecting overflying risk, the overflight process is separated and the causes of overflying risk are analyzed by combining SHEL model and Reason model, and the formation mechanism of overflight accident is studied. The factors affecting the risk of overflight are summarized in terms of crew, control, weather, machinery, airline and aviation administration. According to the classification results of overflight risk factors, the evaluation index system of overflight risk factors is established, and the data of each index are counted, and the influencing factors of overflight risk are evaluated and analyzed by rough set theory. Calculate the importance of the indicators. The results show that the aircrew factor is the most important factor, the airline factor has the second influence on the overflight risk, and the weather factor, mechanical factor and control factor also affect the overflight risk. The paper also uses the method of HTA and HET to compare and analyze the pilots' errors which lead to the risk of overflight. The objective data of the pilots' errors are counted from the investigation report of the overflight accidents, and the objective analysis results of the pilots' errors are obtained. Finally, compared with the subjective analysis results of pilots' errors obtained by Wen-Chin Li using the same theory, the results show that the pilots' errors and their error types / patterns are different between the two kinds of analysis results. Based on the above analysis, according to the evaluation, analysis and comparative analysis of the factors affecting overflight risk, the preventive measures of overflight risk are put forward from all aspects, and the procedures for overflying are put forward according to the safety recommendations of the overflight accident report. Recommended measures for aircraft operators.
【學位授予單位】：中國民航大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：V328

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