本文選題：人誤預(yù)測技術(shù) + 人誤致因　； 參考：《北京交通大學(xué)》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：摘要： 近年來,隨著地鐵列車運行控制系統(tǒng)技術(shù)的發(fā)展,行車調(diào)度系統(tǒng)自動化程度越來越高,降低了由行車調(diào)度員失誤引發(fā)事故的可能性,但與此同時,當(dāng)?shù)罔F突發(fā)事件發(fā)生后,由于行車調(diào)度員處理不當(dāng)而導(dǎo)致事故發(fā)生或結(jié)果惡化的問題日益凸顯。行車調(diào)度系統(tǒng)是地鐵安全運營的重要保障,行車調(diào)度員則是地鐵突發(fā)事件下系統(tǒng)的最終保護和恢復(fù)機制,如何有效地避免和減少地鐵突發(fā)事件中行車調(diào)度系統(tǒng)人誤是各國地鐵亟需解決的安全問題。為此,本文以國家高技術(shù)研究發(fā)展計劃(863計劃)“列車運行綜合優(yōu)化控制技術(shù)”為背景,從分析地鐵行車調(diào)度系統(tǒng)人誤致因出發(fā),提出研究地鐵突發(fā)事件下行車調(diào)度系統(tǒng)人誤預(yù)測的兩個關(guān)鍵方面——人誤行為風(fēng)險預(yù)測和人誤誘發(fā)因素風(fēng)險預(yù)測,提出基于場景的突發(fā)事件人誤行為識別、預(yù)測指標(biāo)定級和人誤行為風(fēng)險評價技術(shù),同時提出考慮因果作用的人誤誘發(fā)因素風(fēng)險預(yù)測技術(shù),并形成與提出的人誤預(yù)測技術(shù)相匹配的規(guī)范化的行車調(diào)度系統(tǒng)人誤數(shù)據(jù)采集和管理方法,為地鐵行車調(diào)度系統(tǒng)人誤預(yù)防與減少提供理論方法和技術(shù)支撐,具有重要的理論與實際應(yīng)用價值。 首先,對行車調(diào)度員突發(fā)事件處理任務(wù)和行車調(diào)度系統(tǒng)人機交互特點進行了詳細分析,在此基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建了地鐵行車調(diào)度員人誤機理模型,從人誤行為和人誤誘發(fā)因素兩個方面對人誤機理進行描述,先后基于層次任務(wù)分析法和m-SHEL模型建立了人誤行為分析模型和人誤誘發(fā)因素識別模型,形成了以多資源理論為基礎(chǔ)的行車調(diào)度員人誤模式分類框架和以Jae W. Kim研究為基礎(chǔ)的行車調(diào)度系統(tǒng)人誤誘發(fā)因素備選庫,并以國內(nèi)某地鐵公司1997-2011年間的98份行車調(diào)度員突發(fā)事件處理的人誤分析報告為對象,通過灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析、數(shù)據(jù)挖掘技術(shù)和評分者信度評估驗證了人誤模式分類框架、人誤誘發(fā)因素分類、人誤模式分析模型和人誤誘發(fā)因素識別模型的合理性和正確性。 針對行車調(diào)度系統(tǒng)人誤數(shù)據(jù)缺乏而引起的無法直接或間接計算、估計和預(yù)測人誤率的問題,參考硬件故障模式、影響及危害性分析技術(shù)提出了以人誤行為可能性、可恢復(fù)性和后果嚴(yán)重性為指標(biāo)的人誤行為風(fēng)險預(yù)測模型,并結(jié)合行車調(diào)度系統(tǒng)人誤模式分類框架確定了人誤行為可能性等級劃分標(biāo)準(zhǔn)；結(jié)合系統(tǒng)人誤屏障的特點確定了人誤行為可恢復(fù)性等級劃分標(biāo)準(zhǔn)；結(jié)合地鐵事故管理規(guī)定確定了人誤行為后果嚴(yán)重性等級劃分標(biāo)準(zhǔn),形成了對人誤行為風(fēng)險進行評價和定級的度量圖和風(fēng)險度量矩陣。 考慮到人誤行為風(fēng)險預(yù)測模型定量化的需要,參考硬件故障模式發(fā)生概率等級的評分準(zhǔn)則和系統(tǒng)人誤屏障的失誤率減少作用確定了人誤行為可能性和可恢復(fù)性指標(biāo)的定量化定級標(biāo)準(zhǔn),研究了基于貝塔分布的定量化人誤數(shù)據(jù)的采集和估計方法,解決了人誤率數(shù)據(jù)采集難的問題,設(shè)計并開發(fā)了基于典型任務(wù)的ATS模擬實驗系統(tǒng),通過視線追蹤技術(shù)對定量化人誤數(shù)據(jù)進行采集,完成了對采集方法的驗證,為行車調(diào)度系統(tǒng)定量化人誤數(shù)據(jù)收集提供思路。 在建立的人誤行為風(fēng)險預(yù)測技術(shù)上研究突發(fā)事件場景人誤行為風(fēng)險的識別方法。根據(jù)行車調(diào)度員突發(fā)事件處理任務(wù)可模塊化的特點,建立了基本任務(wù)模塊庫及相應(yīng)的突發(fā)事件人誤場景生成技術(shù),以人誤場景構(gòu)建規(guī)則為對象,分析和確定了突發(fā)事件場景的失誤后果嚴(yán)重性等級、可恢復(fù)性等級、可能性等級和風(fēng)險等級的計算規(guī)則,以及關(guān)鍵人誤行為識別技術(shù),并通過對接觸軌斷電突發(fā)事件人誤風(fēng)險預(yù)測實例驗證了方法的實用性。 在人誤誘發(fā)情景風(fēng)險預(yù)測方面,充分考慮人誤誘發(fā)因素間因果關(guān)系,以及因果關(guān)系而導(dǎo)致的其對系統(tǒng)人誤的綜合和整體效應(yīng)的變化情況,構(gòu)建了以模糊認(rèn)知圖來進行描述的人誤誘發(fā)情景圖模型,引入模糊認(rèn)知圖在因素關(guān)系推理、權(quán)重計算方面的理論成果,形成人誤誘發(fā)情景影響效應(yīng)的評價技術(shù),完成了對某地鐵公司人誤誘發(fā)情景風(fēng)險預(yù)測的實例分析。為了保證構(gòu)建的圖模型的正確性,采用證據(jù)理論和不一致性判斷方法對專家判斷進行綜合,同時引入小樣本數(shù)據(jù)篩選技術(shù)提高了圖模型構(gòu)建的效率。 最后,根據(jù)建立的行車調(diào)度系統(tǒng)人誤預(yù)測技術(shù)特點,對地鐵行車調(diào)度系統(tǒng)人誤數(shù)據(jù)需求和不確定性進行了詳細分析,建立了規(guī)范化的人誤數(shù)據(jù)采集方法。
[Abstract]:Summary :

In recent years , with the development of the technology of metro train operation control system , the automation degree of traffic dispatching system is becoming higher and higher , and the problem of accident occurrence or deterioration caused by improper handling of traffic dispatcher is becoming more and more obvious .

Firstly , a detailed analysis is carried out on the human - machine interaction characteristics of the traffic dispatcher ' s emergency handling task and the traffic dispatching system . Based on this , the human error mechanism model is constructed , and the human error - induced factor identification model based on multi - resource theory and the human error - induced factor identification model are established , and the human error - induced factor classification framework and the human error - induced factor identification model based on the multi - resource theory are established , and the rationality and the correctness of the human error - induced factor classification framework , the human error - induced factor classification , the human error mode analysis model and the human error - induced factor identification model are verified by the grey correlation analysis , data mining technology and the scoring person reliability evaluation .

Aiming at the problem of the lack of direct or indirect calculation , estimation and prediction of the human error rate caused by the lack of human error data in the traffic dispatching system , the human error behavior risk prediction model based on the possibility of human error behavior , the recoverability and the severity of the consequences is put forward with reference to the hardware failure mode , the influence and the hazard analysis technology , and the classification standard of the probability level of human error behavior is determined in combination with the human error pattern classification framework of the traffic dispatching system ;
Based on the characteristics of human error barrier in the system , the author determines the criterion of the recoverable grade of human error behavior ;
Combined with the regulations of metro accident management , the criterion of severity grade of human error behavior is determined , and the risk evaluation and risk measurement matrix of human error behavior risk are formed .

Considering the need of quantitative analysis of human error behavior risk prediction model , the quantitative order criterion of human error rate and recoverable index is determined with reference to the scoring criterion of probability level in hardware failure mode and the error rate reduction function of systematic human error barrier .

In this paper , the method of identifying the risk of human error behavior in the incident scene is studied based on the established human error behavior risk prediction technology . According to the characteristics of the modularization of the emergency handling task of the traffic dispatcher , the basic task module library and the corresponding incident human error scene generation technology are established , the human error scene construction rule is used as the object , the calculation rule of the severity level , the recoverability grade , the probability level and the risk level of the incident scene are analyzed and determined , and the key human error behavior identification technology is analyzed and determined , and the practicability of the method is verified by an example of the error risk prediction of the contact rail power - off emergency .

In the aspect of human error - induced scenario risk prediction , the human error - induced causal relationship between human error - induced factors and the change of the overall effect of human error - induced scenario are fully taken into account , and an example analysis of human error - induced scenario risk prediction based on fuzzy cognitive map is constructed . In order to ensure the correctness of the constructed graph model , the expert judgement is integrated by using the evidence theory and the inconsistency judgment method , and the efficiency of the construction of the graph model is improved by introducing small sample data screening technology .

Finally , according to the characteristics of the human error prediction technology of the established traffic dispatching system , a detailed analysis of the human error data requirement and uncertainty of the subway traffic dispatching system is carried out , and a standardized human error data acquisition method is established .

【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：U298;U231

【引證文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 王潔;方衛(wèi)寧;苗沖沖;趙燦燦;;地鐵行車調(diào)度系統(tǒng)人誤行為識別方法研究[J];中國安全科學(xué)學(xué)報;2014年04期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 涂子學(xué);城市軌道交通行車調(diào)度人機風(fēng)險分析方法及應(yīng)用[D];西南交通大學(xué);2014年

2 仲爽;高速鐵路調(diào)度指揮系統(tǒng)可靠性評價指標(biāo)體系研究[D];西南交通大學(xué);2014年

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本文編號：1849957