本文選題：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估 + 海外保障基地　； 參考：《海洋通報(bào)》2017年05期

【摘要】：針對海外保障基地面臨的自然風(fēng)險(xiǎn),在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)辨識基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系和海外保障基地自然風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)評估模型,并進(jìn)行了情景模擬下的量化實(shí)驗(yàn)評估。針對目前貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)評估過程中的群決策和決策偏好問題,引入了猶豫層次分析思想來優(yōu)化計(jì)算指標(biāo)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)隸屬度,改進(jìn)了評估過程中的客觀性和適用性。
[Abstract]:On the basis of risk identification, a risk evaluation index system and a Bayesian network model for natural risk assessment of overseas security bases are constructed, and quantitative experimental evaluation under scenario simulation is carried out. Aiming at the problem of group decision and decision preference in Bayesian network evaluation process, this paper introduces the idea of hesitant level analysis to optimize the index risk membership, and improves the objectivity and applicability of the evaluation process.
【作者單位】： 國防科技大學(xué)氣象海洋學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金(41276088)
【分類號】：X43
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本文編號：1842653