本文選題：多尺度 + 過(guò)程系統(tǒng)��； 參考：《化工學(xué)報(bào)》2017年12期

【摘要】：為提高過(guò)程安全事故概率估計(jì)方法的適用性,需在基本事件階段考慮工藝偏差的傳播過(guò)程。提出基于尺度效應(yīng)的過(guò)程安全事故概率估計(jì)方法,從工藝偏差角度入手,建立了新的基本事件求解模型。引入了多尺度思想,在大尺度上,考慮人因失誤對(duì)工藝偏差的影響,修正基本事件概率。選用模糊Petri網(wǎng)模型進(jìn)行事故概率估計(jì)。最后通過(guò)沖塔事故案例分析驗(yàn)證模型,結(jié)果表明:人的參與對(duì)工藝偏差概率具有較大影響,所提方法比較符合實(shí)際工況,更適用于過(guò)程安全。由于概率估計(jì)是基于統(tǒng)計(jì)的數(shù)據(jù)求取偏差概率,避免了直接對(duì)計(jì)算參數(shù)進(jìn)行設(shè)定的主觀性。
[Abstract]:In order to improve the applicability of the probabilistic estimation method for process safety accidents, the propagation process of process deviation should be considered in the basic event stage. A process safety accident probability estimation method based on scale effect is proposed, and a new basic event solving model is established from the point of view of process deviation. The multi-scale idea is introduced to modify the probability of basic events in large scale considering the influence of human error on process deviation. Fuzzy Petri net model is used to estimate the probability of accident. Finally, the model is verified by case analysis of tower punching accident. The results show that the participation of human beings has a great influence on the probability of process deviation, and the proposed method is more suitable for process safety. Because the probability estimation is based on the statistical data to obtain the deviation probability, the subjectivity of directly setting the calculation parameters is avoided.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)石油大學(xué)(北京)油氣資源與工程國(guó)家重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室機(jī)械與儲(chǔ)運(yùn)工程學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(51574263) 中國(guó)石油大學(xué)(北京)科研基金資助項(xiàng)目(2462015YQ0403);中國(guó)石油大學(xué)(北京)青年創(chuàng)新團(tuán)隊(duì)C計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(C201602)~~
【分類號(hào)】：TQ086
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本文編號(hào)：1837616