本文選題：多尺度 + 過程系統(tǒng)　； 參考：《化工學報》2017年12期

【摘要】：為提高過程安全事故概率估計方法的適用性,需在基本事件階段考慮工藝偏差的傳播過程。提出基于尺度效應的過程安全事故概率估計方法,從工藝偏差角度入手,建立了新的基本事件求解模型。引入了多尺度思想,在大尺度上,考慮人因失誤對工藝偏差的影響,修正基本事件概率。選用模糊Petri網模型進行事故概率估計。最后通過沖塔事故案例分析驗證模型,結果表明:人的參與對工藝偏差概率具有較大影響,所提方法比較符合實際工況,更適用于過程安全。由于概率估計是基于統(tǒng)計的數據求取偏差概率,避免了直接對計算參數進行設定的主觀性。
[Abstract]:In order to improve the applicability of the probabilistic estimation method for process safety accidents, the propagation process of process deviation should be considered in the basic event stage. A process safety accident probability estimation method based on scale effect is proposed, and a new basic event solving model is established from the point of view of process deviation. The multi-scale idea is introduced to modify the probability of basic events in large scale considering the influence of human error on process deviation. Fuzzy Petri net model is used to estimate the probability of accident. Finally, the model is verified by case analysis of tower punching accident. The results show that the participation of human beings has a great influence on the probability of process deviation, and the proposed method is more suitable for process safety. Because the probability estimation is based on the statistical data to obtain the deviation probability, the subjectivity of directly setting the calculation parameters is avoided.
【作者單位】： 中國石油大學(北京)油氣資源與工程國家重點實驗室機械與儲運工程學院;
【基金】：國家自然科學基金項目(51574263) 中國石油大學(北京)科研基金資助項目(2462015YQ0403);中國石油大學(北京)青年創(chuàng)新團隊C計劃項目(C201602)~~
【分類號】：TQ086
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本文編號：1837616