本文選題：風(fēng)險評價 + 指標(biāo)體系��； 參考：《大連海事大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：長江江蘇段位于中國經(jīng)濟最發(fā)達地區(qū)之一的長三角江蘇地區(qū),航運經(jīng)濟發(fā)達。近年來,長江江蘇段航行船舶數(shù)量及載運貨物數(shù)量不斷增加,一旦發(fā)生重大船舶污染事故,對流域生態(tài)環(huán)境和居民生活將帶來嚴(yán)重影響。對船舶污染和應(yīng)急管理進行研究,科學(xué)的評價區(qū)域內(nèi)船舶污染風(fēng)險,預(yù)測和分析風(fēng)險水平,提出應(yīng)急能力建設(shè)方案,從而有效預(yù)防船舶污染事件的發(fā)生,減少事故發(fā)生時產(chǎn)生的危害,具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義。 本文從可能影響船舶污染的風(fēng)險因素入手,通過對長江江蘇段防治船舶污染水域工作現(xiàn)狀進行分析,采用系統(tǒng)分析與層次分析相結(jié)合的方法,對各種風(fēng)險因素進行研究,以船舶污染水域環(huán)境風(fēng)險作為最高層次評價目標(biāo),根據(jù)此目標(biāo),選擇影響決策的因素并確定評價指標(biāo),根據(jù)評價指標(biāo)的從屬關(guān)系,由高到低將中間層指標(biāo)進行排列,構(gòu)建了多層次的船舶污染水域環(huán)境風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo)體系；然后通過專家調(diào)查的方式,采取層次分析法確定各項風(fēng)險因素的權(quán)重值;并根據(jù)風(fēng)險因素相關(guān)指標(biāo)的類型、特點,對指標(biāo)進行標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化處理,征詢專家意見給出指標(biāo)評分函數(shù),根據(jù)實例生成各指標(biāo)評分,進而得到一個動態(tài)的、可比的風(fēng)險綜合評價值,從而對轄區(qū)安全監(jiān)管工作進行預(yù)警和指導(dǎo)。
[Abstract]:Yangtze River Jiangsu is located in the Yangtze River Delta Jiangsu, one of the most developed areas in China, shipping economy is developed. In recent years, the number of navigation vessels and the quantity of cargo carried in Jiangsu section of the Yangtze River have been increasing continuously. Once serious ship pollution accidents occur, it will bring serious impact on the ecological environment of the river basin and the life of residents. Research on ship pollution and emergency management, scientific evaluation of marine pollution risk in the region, prediction and analysis of risk level, emergency capacity building scheme, so as to effectively prevent the occurrence of marine pollution incidents, It is of great practical significance to reduce the harm caused by the accident. This paper starts with the risk factors which may affect the ship pollution, through the analysis of the current situation of the prevention and control of ship pollution in Jiangsu section of the Yangtze River, and adopts the method of system analysis and AHP to study the various risk factors. The environmental risk of the polluted waters of ships is regarded as the highest evaluation objective. According to this objective, the factors influencing the decision-making are selected and the evaluation indexes are determined. According to the subordinate relationship of the evaluation indexes, the intermediate layer indexes are arranged from high to low. A multi-level evaluation index system of environmental risk in polluted waters of ships is constructed, and then the weight of each risk factor is determined by analytic hierarchy process through the way of expert investigation, and according to the types and characteristics of related indexes of risk factors, The index is standardized, the index scoring function is given in consultation with expert opinion, and the index score is generated according to the example, and then a dynamic and comparable comprehensive evaluation value of risk is obtained. In order to the area of safety supervision and early warning and guidance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：U698.7

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