本文選題：高速鐵路 + 地震防災(zāi)�。� 參考：《中國地震局工程力學(xué)研究所》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：地震預(yù)警是近年來發(fā)展起來的防震減災(zāi)的有效手段之一。中國是一個地震多發(fā)國家，同時地震也是一種發(fā)生概率較小但對鐵路行車安全危害極大的自然災(zāi)害，隨著我國鐵路實施了六次大提速和開行高速列車，列車運行速度和列車密度的不斷提高，較小震級的地震對路基、軌道、橋梁等的沖擊都可能導(dǎo)致危害旅客生命安全的重大事故。在這種形勢下，地震時如果能在破壞性地震動到來前提早哪怕是短短的幾十秒甚至幾秒對高速鐵路實施報警和緊急處置，將大大降低旅客生命財產(chǎn)損失的發(fā)生概率，因此對中國高速鐵路來說迫切需要建設(shè)地震預(yù)警系統(tǒng)。 本文詳細(xì)分析了技術(shù)研究和實踐經(jīng)歷都相對成熟的日本新干線地震監(jiān)測及預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的發(fā)展歷程、運行控制用地震動參數(shù)以及地震預(yù)警關(guān)鍵技術(shù)研究現(xiàn)狀，以日本新干線地震防災(zāi)系統(tǒng)相關(guān)關(guān)鍵技術(shù)為基礎(chǔ)，并以強震動觀測數(shù)據(jù)為依據(jù)，針對中國高速鐵路地震地震預(yù)警系統(tǒng)亟待解決的關(guān)鍵技術(shù)問題，主要圍繞高速鐵路運行控制用地震動參數(shù)選取及其標(biāo)準(zhǔn)值確定、高速鐵路單臺地震預(yù)警中震源參數(shù)快速確定方法兩方面內(nèi)容作了相關(guān)研究，研究內(nèi)容概述如下： （1）在日本新干線警報地震計帶通濾波器的基礎(chǔ)上，提出了設(shè)計原理更明確、設(shè)計方法更簡單、并能用于中國高速鐵路地震動閾值報警的帶通濾波器，給出了該數(shù)字帶通濾波器的設(shè)計方法及遞歸方程； （2）利用日本K-net強震觀測數(shù)據(jù)和中國CSMNC強震觀測數(shù)據(jù)，統(tǒng)計建立了日本氣象廳計測震度I jma、儀器烈度標(biāo)準(zhǔn)I s、加速度峰值、譜烈度SI、阿里亞斯烈度I a、累積絕對速度CAV以及累積能量變化率DE等地震動參數(shù)間的關(guān)系，分析了各地震動參數(shù)間的線性相關(guān)性。利用日本東北新干線在三次大地震中高架橋破壞分布的資料以及東北新干線沿線K-net臺站和KiK-net臺站強震動觀測數(shù)據(jù)，得到了各地震動參數(shù)在實際地震破壞中的下限值，給出了各地震動參數(shù)與結(jié)構(gòu)破壞變化及結(jié)構(gòu)破壞分布的關(guān)系； （3）依據(jù)各地震動參數(shù)間的統(tǒng)計關(guān)系，轉(zhuǎn)換得到了與加速度峰值閾值（地震時警報值：40gal，地震后限速值：80gal，地震后停車值：120gal）相對應(yīng)的其它地震動參數(shù)閾值，通過地震時警報值的誤報漏報分析和時效性分析、震后限速值和停車值的合理性分析，結(jié)合統(tǒng)計關(guān)系中各地震動參數(shù)間的相關(guān)性以及各地震動參數(shù)與新干線高架橋柱破壞變化和破壞分布的關(guān)系，提出了中國高速鐵路運行控制用地震動參數(shù)的閾值建議值。研究了豎向分量地震動參數(shù)用于運行控制的可行性，提出了相應(yīng)的警報閾值建議值； （4）在日本單臺利用P波初始階段幅值增長率估算震中距B-Δ方法的基礎(chǔ)上，通過研究B-Δ方法的理論形式，利用中國CSMNC強震觀測數(shù)據(jù)，驗證了通過線性擬合P波初始階段幅值包絡(luò)確定震中距的C-Δ方法，該方法可以在P波觸發(fā)后0.5秒就可以得到理想的震中距估算結(jié)果，并明確了該方法在高頻條件能得到更優(yōu)的震中距確定結(jié)果。此外，針對該方法在實時應(yīng)用中的缺陷，提出了利用阿里亞斯烈度P波初始階段幅值增長率估算震中距的A-Δ方法，不同估算時間窗的計算結(jié)果表明，該方法可以在P波觸發(fā)后0.7秒給出穩(wěn)定的震中距估算結(jié)果，P波觸發(fā)后1.0秒得到最佳的震中距估算結(jié)果，，且有著優(yōu)異的實時應(yīng)用前景； （5）建立了基于中國CSMNC強震觀測數(shù)據(jù)的地震預(yù)警系統(tǒng)中常用的p max、 c以及Pd這三種地震波特征參數(shù)與震級的比例關(guān)系，誤差分析結(jié)果表明Pd得到的震級估算結(jié)果最優(yōu)。分析了全波段各地震動參數(shù)與震級的比例關(guān)系，結(jié)果顯示全波段平方速度IV2得到的估算震級與實際震級最符合1:1的線性比例關(guān)系，且在不同震級范圍的誤差都較小，建立了P波段平方速度IV2p與全波段平方速度IV2的比例關(guān)系，并且通過P波段平方速度IV2p與全波段平方速度IV2的比例關(guān)系解釋了現(xiàn)有地震預(yù)警震級估算方法在大震級處低估震級的原因，進而提出了一種利用平方速度IV2連續(xù)估算震級的方法，該方法可以P波觸發(fā)后5秒獲得最佳的震級估算結(jié)果。
[Abstract]:Earthquake early warning is one of the effective means of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction developed in recent years. China is an earthquake prone country. At the same time, earthquake is also a natural disaster which has a small occurrence probability but is very harmful to railway traffic safety. With the implementation of six high speed and high speed trains, the speed of train operation and train density have been implemented with the railway in our country. The impact of small earthquake magnitude earthquakes on subgrade, track, bridge, etc. may lead to major accidents that will harm the safety of passengers. In this situation, if the earthquake can be in a short period of dozens of seconds or even a few seconds before the arrival of the destructive earthquake, it will greatly reduce the alarm and emergency disposal of the high speed railway. The occurrence probability of loss of life and property of passengers is an urgent need for building an earthquake early warning system for China's high-speed railways.
In this paper, the development course of the earthquake monitoring and early warning system of the Shinkansen, Japan's Shinkansen system, which is relatively mature in technical research and practice, is analyzed in detail. The research status of the parameters of ground motion and the key technologies of earthquake early warning are studied, based on the key technologies related to the earthquake prevention system of the Shinkansen, Japan, and based on the observation data of strong vibration. In view of the key technical problems to be solved urgently in the earthquake earthquake early warning system of high speed railway in China, it mainly focuses on the selection of ground motion parameters and the standard value determination of high speed railway operation control, and the research on two aspects of the rapid determination of seismic source parameters in the earthquake early warning of high speed railway. The contents of the research are summarized as follows:
(1) on the basis of the Japanese Shinkansen warning seismometer bandpass filter, the design principle is more clear, the design method is more simple, and the bandpass filter can be used to alarm the ground motion threshold of the high speed railway in China, and the design method and recurrence equation of the digital bandpass filter are given.
(2) using the Japanese K-net strong earthquake observation data and the CSMNC strong earthquake observation data in China, the relation between the seismological parameter I JMA, the standard I s, the peak acceleration, the spectral intensity SI, the Arias intensity I a, the cumulative absolute velocity CAV and the cumulative energy change rate DE and so on, is statistically established. By using the data of the destruction distribution of the viaduct of the Northeast Shinkansen of Japan in the three great earthquake and the strong vibration observation data of the K-net station and KiK-net station along the Northeast Shinkansen line, the lower limit of the vibration parameters in the actual earthquake damage is obtained, and the damage changes and structures of the vibration parameters and structures in various parts of the country are given. Destroy the relationship of distribution;
(3) according to the statistical relationship between the vibration parameters of various places, the threshold value of other ground motion parameters corresponding to the peak threshold value of the acceleration (40gal, the speed limit after the earthquake: 80gal, the parking value after the earthquake: 120gal), the false report analysis and the timeliness analysis by the false alarm value of the earthquake, the speed limit value and the parking value after the earthquake are obtained. On the basis of the analysis of the reasonableness of the seismic parameters in the statistical relationship and the relationship between the vibration parameters and the failure and damage distribution of the elevated bridge columns in the main line, the threshold value of the ground motion parameters for the operation and control of the high speed railway in China is proposed. The feasibility of the ground motion parameters of the vertical component is studied. The proposed value of the corresponding warning threshold is proposed.
(4) on the basis of estimating the epicentral distance B- delta method by using the initial stage amplitude increase rate of the P wave in Japan, by studying the theoretical form of the B- delta method and using the observational data of the strong earthquake in China, the C- delta method to determine the epicentral distance through the amplitude envelope of the initial phase of the P wave is verified. This method can be 0.5 seconds after the P wave is triggered. The ideal epicentral distance estimation results are obtained, and it is clear that the method can obtain better epicentral distance from the high frequency condition. In addition, in view of the defect in the real time application, the method of estimating the epicentral distance using the initial stage amplitude growth rate of the Arias intensity P wave is proposed, and the calculation results of different estimated time windows are shown. The method can estimate the stable epicentral distance in 0.7 seconds after the P wave is triggered, and get the best epicentral distance estimated by 1 seconds after the trigger of P wave, and it has excellent real time application prospect.
(5) the proportion relationship between the three seismic wave characteristic parameters and the magnitude of seismic waves commonly used in the earthquake early warning system based on the CSMNC strong earthquake observation data in China is established. The error analysis results show that the magnitude estimation results obtained by Pd are optimal. The ratio relation between the vibration parameters and the magnitude of the whole band is analyzed, and the result shows the square of the whole band square. The estimated magnitude and actual magnitude obtained by velocity IV2 are most in line with the linear proportion of 1:1, and the error in different magnitude ranges is smaller. A proportional relationship between the square velocity IV2p of the P band and the square velocity IV2 of the whole band is established, and the existing earthquake precondition is explained by the proportional relation between the square velocity IV2p of the P band and the flat square velocity IV2 of the whole band. The method of estimating the magnitude of the alarm magnitude underestimates the magnitude of the magnitude at the large magnitude, and then a method of continuous estimation of the magnitude by using the square velocity of IV2 is proposed. This method can obtain the best magnitude estimation results after 5 seconds of P wave triggering.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國地震局工程力學(xué)研究所
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：U298;P315.9

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