本文選題：人因組織 + 事故學(xué)習(xí)��； 參考：《北京交通大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：鐵路系統(tǒng)作為社會(huì)復(fù)雜系統(tǒng),其技術(shù)的逐步完善一方面提升了設(shè)備的可靠性,但設(shè)備高集成度和高自動(dòng)化程度也增加了人機(jī)交互的難度。因此,人員的錯(cuò)誤和組織缺陷成為導(dǎo)致鐵路事故的重要原因。此外,事故中人和組織因素的不確定性和鐵路事故文本形式的初始數(shù)據(jù)給事故調(diào)查帶來難度。本文設(shè)計(jì)了針對(duì)中國高速鐵路系統(tǒng)事故的五階段混合學(xué)習(xí)方法,對(duì)事故中涉及的人因和系統(tǒng)組織缺陷進(jìn)行定性定量分析,并基于分析結(jié)果給出事故預(yù)防手段的建議。論文主要內(nèi)容如下:(1)結(jié)合歷史事故數(shù)據(jù)設(shè)計(jì)了鐵路事故人因分析及分類模型(Human Factor Analysis and Classification System-Railway Accidents,HFACS-RAs)對(duì)致因進(jìn)行分類建模。由不安全行為、不安全行為的前提條件、不安全監(jiān)管和組織影響四類因素組成的HFACS-RAs模型的層次結(jié)構(gòu)能夠從一線人員的錯(cuò)誤行為追溯到致使人犯錯(cuò)并間接導(dǎo)致事故發(fā)生的組織變量(Governing Variables)因素,有助于將無規(guī)律的人和組織因素變得有章可循。(2)結(jié)合HFACS-RAs模型的層次分類結(jié)構(gòu)設(shè)計(jì)了基于網(wǎng)絡(luò)分析法(Analytic Network Process,ANP)的量化關(guān)聯(lián)性分析法。事故中人和組織致因間的影響關(guān)系被劃分為內(nèi)部關(guān)聯(lián)性和外部關(guān)聯(lián)性,并通過搭建超矩陣(Supermatrix)以計(jì)算權(quán)重。采用模糊決策試驗(yàn)及評(píng)價(jià)實(shí)驗(yàn)法(Fuzzy Decision Making Trail and Evaluation Laboratory,F-DEMATEL)改進(jìn)內(nèi)部關(guān)聯(lián)性分析過程,彌補(bǔ)了 ANP方法參數(shù)化過程中大量專家判斷帶來的不可靠性。通過繪制致因的因果圖并計(jì)算權(quán)重,可以獲取事故的關(guān)鍵致因,從而縮小解決問題的范圍,便于有效地改善現(xiàn)有安全缺陷。(3)以"7 ·23"甬溫線特別重大鐵路交通事故為研究對(duì)象,利用HFACS-RAs模型對(duì)事故中人和組織因素分類,并分別通過ANP法和DEMATEL法對(duì)歸類的致因進(jìn)行因果關(guān)聯(lián)性分析和權(quán)重計(jì)算,從而識(shí)別導(dǎo)致事故的主要致因并驗(yàn)證方法的可行性。
[Abstract]:Railway system as a social complex system, the gradual improvement of its technology on the one hand to enhance the reliability of equipment, but the high level of integration and automation of equipment also increased the difficulty of human-computer interaction. Therefore, personnel errors and organizational defects have become an important cause of railway accidents. In addition, the uncertainty of human and organizational factors in the accident and the initial data in the form of railway accident text make it difficult to investigate the accident. This paper designs a five-stage hybrid learning method for the accidents of high-speed railway system in China, and makes a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the human factors and system organization defects involved in the accidents. Based on the analysis results, some suggestions on the accident prevention measures are given. The main contents of this paper are as follows: (1) A human Factor Analysis and Classification System-Railway accidents (HFACS-RAsS) model for human factor analysis and classification of railway accidents is designed based on the historical accident data. By unsafe behavior, the precondition of unsafe behavior, The hierarchical structure of the HFACS-RAs model, which is composed of four factors, unsafe supervision and organizational influence, can be traced from the wrong behavior of personnel on the first line to the organizational variable governing variables that cause people to make mistakes and indirectly lead to accidents. It is helpful to make irregular human and organizational factors become rule-based.) combined with the hierarchical classification structure of HFACS-RAs model, this paper designs a quantitative correlation analysis method based on network analysis method (Analytic Network process ANPs). The influence relationship between human and organizational causes in accidents is divided into internal and external correlations, and the weight is calculated by building a supermatrix supermatrix. The fuzzy Decision Making Trail and Evaluation laboratory F-DEMATELL is used to improve the internal correlation analysis process, which makes up for the unreliability caused by a large number of expert judgment in the parameterization process of the ANP method. By drawing causality diagram of cause and effect and calculating weight, the key cause of accident can be obtained, so as to reduce the scope of solving the problem and to effectively improve the existing safety defect. The HFACS-RAs model is used to classify the human and organizational factors in the accident, and the causality analysis and weight calculation are carried out by the ANP method and the DEMATEL method, respectively, so as to identify the main cause of the accident and verify the feasibility of the method.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：U298.5

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

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本文編號(hào)：1812448