本文選題：航道安全 + 空間分析��； 參考：《南京大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：南海是世界上最繁忙的海上運(yùn)輸通道之一,是我國與亞洲其他國家、歐洲、非洲開展海上貿(mào)易的必經(jīng)之道。南海航道關(guān)系到我國能源安全,我國進(jìn)口能源的70%需要通過南海運(yùn)輸。近年來,臺風(fēng)、海嘯等惡劣天氣頻繁發(fā)生,海盜和海上恐怖主義活動頻繁,域外大國借維護(hù)航道安全介入南海爭端,使得南海航道面臨多方面威脅。南海航道安全各方面威脅都與空間位置有很大關(guān)系。從空間角度分析南海航道安全,研究可能對其安全暢通產(chǎn)生影響的自然和社會因素的空間作用范圍、方式與程度,提出優(yōu)化航道安全的措施,可為海洋管理部門提供決策參考,對維護(hù)人們生命財(cái)產(chǎn)安全、保護(hù)海洋環(huán)境和保障我國國家核心戰(zhàn)略利益具有重要意義。隨著地理信息科學(xué)的發(fā)展,基于遙感、GPS和其他來源的空間數(shù)據(jù)日益豐富,為航道安全分析與評價(jià)提供了數(shù)據(jù)基礎(chǔ),GIS多指標(biāo)決策分析技術(shù)的發(fā)展為開展航道安全空間分析與評價(jià)提供了技術(shù)支撐。目前,國內(nèi)外學(xué)者對航行安全空間綜合評價(jià)尚處于初步階段,在航道安全評價(jià)方面研究較少。航道在哪兒?航道安全分布狀況如何?如何優(yōu)化航道安全?已成為開展航道安全評價(jià)研究亟待解決的重要技術(shù)問題。本文綜合利用多源空間數(shù)據(jù),解決了航道安全空間綜合評價(jià)的主要技術(shù)難點(diǎn),準(zhǔn)確地提取了主要航道,揭示了地形、水文氣象、社會環(huán)境的眾多因素影響下的航道安全的時(shí)空分布特征,并提出了改善航道安全的建議和措施。主要研究內(nèi)容和結(jié)論如下:(1)基于軌跡聚類的航道中心線提取方法研究。航道是艦船航行軌跡形成的在港口之間的帶狀區(qū)域。艦船的軌跡反映了航道的分布特征,針對如何利用艦船數(shù)據(jù)提取航道的技術(shù)難題,論文提出軌跡線生成、軌跡線聚類的處理流程,通過聚類中心線實(shí)現(xiàn)航道提取,并結(jié)合世界航道圖和基于Envsat ASAR提取艦船-密度分析的方法驗(yàn)證提取結(jié)果,證明了提取結(jié)果的有效性。研究表明,南海主要航道有14條,其中8條通過南沙群島西面海域,廣州-新加坡航道有3條,分別經(jīng)過西沙群島西面、中部和東面,東面的廣州-新加坡航道與高雄-新加坡航道是南海最主要的航道。(2)航道環(huán)境因素危險(xiǎn)性定量評價(jià)。航道安全與航行環(huán)境危險(xiǎn)性相關(guān),論文從地形環(huán)境、水文氣象環(huán)境、社會環(huán)境三個(gè)方面分析了影響航道安全的因素,并應(yīng)用空間分析手段對影響南海航道安全的重要因素的危險(xiǎn)性進(jìn)行定量評估。研究表明,航行安全受地形因素影響較大的區(qū)域分布在島礁、海岸附近;水文氣象方面,秋、冬季航行安全受風(fēng)浪影響較大,尤其是南海東北部海域和南沙群島西面海域較為危險(xiǎn),夏、秋季受熱帶氣旋影響,夏季南海北部危險(xiǎn)度高,秋季南海東北部危險(xiǎn)度高。船舶密度影響區(qū)域分布在南海北部沿岸區(qū)域,海盜影響區(qū)域則位于馬六甲海峽附近水域,南沙爭端目前對航行安全沒有影響。(3)航道安全空間評價(jià)模型研究。構(gòu)建航道安全空間評價(jià)模型有助于海事部門掌握航道安全空間分布信息,保障航道安全。論文結(jié)合南海區(qū)域特點(diǎn),構(gòu)建了航道安全空間評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,提出了考慮決策偏好選擇的基于OWA-GIS的航道安全空間評價(jià)模型框架,評價(jià)了南海海域和南海航道的安全分布,分析了南海的救助可達(dá)性分布,提出了改善航道安全的措施。該模型經(jīng)過南海海損事故數(shù)據(jù)驗(yàn)證有效。評價(jià)結(jié)果表明,馬六甲海峽附近受海盜影響全年航行較為危險(xiǎn),經(jīng)過馬六甲的航道均受影響;其他區(qū)域在秋、冬兩季的航行危險(xiǎn)性較高,其中新加坡通往高雄、巴士海峽、巴林塘海峽的航道受影響最大,其次為通往廣州的三條航道,其他航道受影響較小。結(jié)合南海救助可達(dá)性,論文建議在黃巖島、康泰灘、永暑礁、華陽礁和渚碧礁建立海上救助基地,保護(hù)我國南海航道安全。論文的主要創(chuàng)新有兩點(diǎn):①提出了一種基于軌跡聚類的航道中心線提取方法。研究利用志愿觀測船(VOS)數(shù)據(jù)生成艦船不同航次的軌跡線,應(yīng)用緩沖區(qū)交集比例度量軌跡線的相似性,進(jìn)行聚類分析,最后應(yīng)用三角網(wǎng)方法生成航道中心線。②構(gòu)建了基于OWA-GIS的南海航道安全空間評價(jià)模型。目前的航行安全評價(jià)模型往往忽略空間分布信息,且不考慮決策偏好性。研究構(gòu)建的空間評價(jià)模型從空間角度,并考慮了 "少數(shù)指標(biāo)滿足"的決策偏好性。
[Abstract]:The South China Sea is one of the busiest maritime transport channels in the world. It is the only way for China to carry out maritime trade with other Asian countries, Europe and Africa. The South China Sea channel is related to China's energy security. The 70% of China's imported energy needs to be transported through the South China Sea. In recent years, typhoons and howls often occur, pirates and maritime terrorists Many foreign countries are involved in the South China Sea dispute through the maintenance of waterway security, which makes the South China Sea channel face many threats. The threats to the security of the South China Sea channel are closely related to the space position. From the spatial perspective, the security of the South China Sea channel is analyzed and the spatial role model of the natural and social factors that may affect the safety and unobstructed production of the South China Sea is studied. The measures to optimize the safety of the channel can provide a reference for the marine management department, and it is of great significance for the maintenance of people's life and property, the protection of the marine environment and the protection of the national core strategic interests of our country. With the development of Geographic Information Science, the spatial data of GPS and other sources are increasingly rich. It provides a data basis for the analysis and evaluation of channel safety. The development of GIS multi index decision analysis technology provides technical support for the safety space analysis and evaluation of navigation channel. At present, the domestic and foreign scholars are still at the initial stage of the comprehensive evaluation of navigation safety space, and there are few studies on the safety assessment of the navigation channel. How to optimize the whole distribution of the channel? How to optimize the channel safety has become an important technical problem to be solved urgently. In this paper, using multi source spatial data, the main technical difficulties of the comprehensive evaluation of the safety space of the channel are solved, the main navigation channels are extracted accurately, and many of the terrain, hydrometeorology and social environment are revealed. The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of channel security under the influence of factors are proposed and the suggestions and measures to improve the safety of the channel are proposed. The main contents and conclusions are as follows: (1) the study of the route center line extraction based on the trajectory clustering. The channel is a band area between the ports formed by the ship navigation track. The trajectory of the ship reflects the distribution of the channel. Characteristics, in view of the technical problems of how to use ship data to extract the channel, the paper presents the path line generation, the processing flow of the path line clustering, and the extraction of the channel through the cluster center line, and combines the world waterway map and the method of Envsat ASAR to extract the ship density analysis method, which proves the validity of the extraction results. There are 14 main waterways in the South China Sea, of which 8 are through the west of Spratly Islands and 3 in the Guangzhou Singapore waterway. Through Paracel Islands West, the middle and East, the Guangzhou Singapore waterway and the Kaohsiung Singapore channel are the most important channel in the South China Sea. (2) the safety of the channel environment and the safety of the channel. The hazard of navigation is analyzed from three aspects of terrain environment, hydrometeorology environment and social environment, and the risk of the important factors affecting the safety of the South China Sea channel is quantitatively evaluated by means of spatial analysis. The study shows that the safety of navigation is affected by the terrain factors. On the islands and reefs, near the coast, in the area of hydrometeorology, in autumn and in winter, the safety of navigation is greatly affected by the wind and waves, especially in the northeast of the South China Sea and the western area of the Spratly Islands. In summer and autumn, it is affected by the tropical cyclone. In summer, the danger is high in the north of the South China Sea, and the danger is high in the northeast of the South China Sea in autumn. The area of the ship density is distributed in the north of the South China Sea. The coastal area, the pirate affected area is located in the waters near the Malacca Strait, and the Nansha dispute has no influence on the safety of navigation. (3) the study of the safety space evaluation model of the channel. The construction of the safety space evaluation model of the channel is helpful for the maritime department to grasp the information of the space distribution of the navigation channel and the safety of the channel. The evaluation index system of waterway safety space is constructed, and a OWA-GIS based space evaluation model framework based on the choice of decision preference is proposed. The safety distribution of the sea area and the South China Sea channel is evaluated, the accessibility distribution of the South China Sea is analyzed, and the measures to improve the safety of the navigation channel are put forward. The results show that the evaluation results show that the pirates near the Malacca Straits are more dangerous to navigate the whole year and are affected by the channel of Malacca; the other regions have high navigation risk in the autumn and two seasons, among which Singapore leads to Kaohsiung, the bus channel, the Bahrain Tong channel and the next to Guangzhou, three. The paper proposes to establish maritime rescue base in Huangyan, Kangtai beach, Yong Shu reef, Huayang reef and Zhu Bi reef in Huangyan Island, Kangtai beach, Huayang reef and Zhu Bi reef. The main innovations of this paper are as follows: (1) a method of extracting the center line of the channel based on the trajectory clustering is proposed. The VOS data generates the trajectories of different voyages, uses the similarity of the proportions of the buffer area to measure the trajectory line, and carries out clustering analysis. Finally, the channel center line is generated by the triangulation method. Secondly, a security space evaluation model of the South China Sea channel based on OWA-GIS is constructed. The current navigation safety evaluation model often ignores the empty space. The distribution of information is distributed without considering the preference of decision making. The spatial evaluation model is studied from the spatial perspective, and the decision preference of "minority index satisfaction" is considered.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U698

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