本文選題：非常規(guī)突發(fā)災(zāi)害 + 大規(guī)模人群疏散　； 參考：《中國科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：近年來,在全世界范圍內(nèi)具有災(zāi)難性后果的非常規(guī)突發(fā)事件時(shí)有發(fā)生,大規(guī)模群體疏散問題日益得到公共安全領(lǐng)域的高度重視。迄今為止,對于大規(guī)模人群疏散的微觀或宏觀模型研究已有很多,有力推動(dòng)了非常規(guī)突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急處置科技領(lǐng)域的發(fā)展。但是,關(guān)于非常規(guī)突發(fā)事件下大規(guī)模人群疏散的不確定性尚沒有得到充分的認(rèn)識。為了揭示非常規(guī)突發(fā)事件下大規(guī)模人群在疏散過程中所受到的諸多不確定因素的影響和作用模式,我們采用理論分析和數(shù)學(xué)建模相結(jié)合的方法,以非常規(guī)突發(fā)災(zāi)害為背景,從突發(fā)災(zāi)害、外部疏散引導(dǎo)以及大規(guī)模疏散人群這三個(gè)層面,研究影響大規(guī)模人群疏散的隨機(jī)不確定性,從效率和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的角度,為突發(fā)災(zāi)害應(yīng)急疏散提供理論和技術(shù)支持。 在非常規(guī)突發(fā)災(zāi)害層面,首先對非常規(guī)災(zāi)害與常規(guī)災(zāi)害的隨機(jī)性分析與預(yù)測進(jìn)行了一些探討。以常規(guī)災(zāi)害中的城市火災(zāi)為例,建立了基于城市火災(zāi)冪律分布特征的重特大火災(zāi)事故發(fā)生概率預(yù)測模型,而非常規(guī)災(zāi)害在時(shí)間和空間尺度上均具有更多的不確定性和復(fù)雜性。因此,涉及到非常規(guī)災(zāi)害相關(guān)參數(shù)的設(shè)置和分析時(shí),主要以人為假定的形式進(jìn)行。在對災(zāi)害擴(kuò)散模式及危害程度進(jìn)行合理假設(shè)的基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用動(dòng)態(tài)網(wǎng)絡(luò)流方法,建立了一個(gè)綜合考慮疏散優(yōu)先級和災(zāi)害擴(kuò)散一般模式的多源多匯(MSMD)大規(guī)模疏散模型,并運(yùn)用CCRP算法進(jìn)行了疏散規(guī)劃的求解及對比。進(jìn)一步提出并建立了“路徑通行效率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”(RTE風(fēng)險(xiǎn))的概念及其定量評估框架模型,基于該模型獲得的各路段在災(zāi)害發(fā)生后不同時(shí)刻的ITE風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值,可有效反映出疏散路網(wǎng)在災(zāi)害環(huán)境下,綜合考慮了效率和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之后“適合通行”程度的動(dòng)態(tài)變化。 在疏散引導(dǎo)層面,一是研究了大規(guī)模人群疏散時(shí)極易出現(xiàn)的恐慌情緒的傳播特征及其對疏散的影響。運(yùn)用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)方法,構(gòu)建了一個(gè)大規(guī)模人群疏散的定性仿真模型,通過對模型實(shí)施各種不同的輸入方案,發(fā)現(xiàn)了有無疏散引導(dǎo)時(shí)由于災(zāi)害氛圍加劇而出現(xiàn)的恐慌受控或失控狀況的變化規(guī)律,以及災(zāi)害氛圍下人群中恐慌情緒的蔓延更多地是受到占主導(dǎo)地位情緒的作用。該定性仿真模型很好地揭示了疏散系統(tǒng)中關(guān)鍵要素之間的相互作用關(guān)系以及影響疏散中恐慌情緒傳播的不確定性因素,并且再現(xiàn)了疏散出口處“快即是慢”的典型現(xiàn)象。二是結(jié)合疏散引導(dǎo)對大規(guī)模疏散風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了量化研究。提出了大規(guī)模人群流動(dòng)特征密度的概念,并基于連續(xù)人群流動(dòng)理論和相關(guān)經(jīng)驗(yàn)公式,推導(dǎo)獲得了影響大規(guī)模人群流動(dòng)的一系列特征密度�；谒@得的特征密度,結(jié)合排隊(duì)理論,建立了一個(gè)無限人流過橋模型,并通過計(jì)算相關(guān)的系統(tǒng)效率指標(biāo),獲得了不同密度人群在不同疏散引導(dǎo)策略下的疏散效率變化特征。基于理論分析和排隊(duì)模擬所獲得的五個(gè)特征密度,提出了一個(gè)在大規(guī)模疏散中判斷疏散策略能否提高疏散效率的“人群密度風(fēng)險(xiǎn)軸”,以人群密度風(fēng)險(xiǎn)軸上的三個(gè)區(qū)間代表大規(guī)模疏散時(shí)針對疏散策略有效性而言的三種不同特征的人流,即有效流、臨界流和無效流,并通過疏散風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的合理數(shù)值匹配,對這個(gè)人群密度風(fēng)險(xiǎn)軸進(jìn)行了定量詮釋。 在大規(guī)模疏散人群層面,引入并量化了人群生理心理因素對大規(guī)模疏散的影響,建立并修正了大規(guī)模人群疏散路徑選擇的隨機(jī)Markov模型,并基于Markov過程的概率描述,以CO毒氣瞬時(shí)泄漏擴(kuò)散為事故背景,詳細(xì)分析了疏散人群在多種因素,尤其是生理和心理因素影響下的疏散不確定性。通過分析清空時(shí)間在相關(guān)參數(shù)作用下的變化規(guī)律,發(fā)現(xiàn)在單因素變化情況下,滯留人數(shù)的對數(shù)與疏散時(shí)間之間存在分段線性特征；清空時(shí)間隨著初始疏散人數(shù)的增加呈現(xiàn)對數(shù)線性增加的規(guī)律,隨著節(jié)點(diǎn)最大容量的增加呈現(xiàn)線性減小的規(guī)律。此外,徒步疏散情況下人員心理恐慌對疏散速度的修正,整體上對于疏散結(jié)果的影響不大,而毒氣影響下的人員生理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對疏散結(jié)果影響顯著,必須在涉及諸如毒氣泄漏等突發(fā)事故的大規(guī)模人群應(yīng)急疏散中予以重點(diǎn)關(guān)注。
[Abstract]:In recent years, unconventional emergencies with disastrous consequences have occurred in the world, and mass evacuation has been paid more and more attention in the field of public security. So far, there have been a lot of micro or macro models for large-scale crowd evacuation, which has greatly promoted the emergency disposal technology of unconventional emergencies. However, the uncertainty of large-scale crowd evacuation under unconventional emergencies has not yet been fully understood. In order to reveal the effects and modes of many uncertain factors in the process of mass evacuation in the process of unconventional emergencies, we combine theoretical analysis with mathematical modeling. Methods, with the background of unconventional sudden disasters, the random uncertainty affecting the evacuation of large-scale crowd is studied from three levels of sudden disaster, external evacuation guide and mass evacuation, and the theoretical and technical support for emergency evacuation is provided from the perspective of efficiency and risk.
At the level of unconventional emergencies, the random analysis and prediction of unconventional and conventional disasters are discussed. Taking urban fires in conventional disasters as an example, the probability prediction model of heavy fire accidents based on the distribution characteristics of urban fire power law is established, while non conventional disasters are on time and space scales. All of them have more uncertainty and complexity. Therefore, when the parameters related to unconventional disasters are set up and analyzed, they are mainly assumed in the form of human assumption. On the basis of reasonable assumptions about the pattern of disaster diffusion and the degree of damage, a dynamic network flow method is used to build a comprehensive consideration of evacuation priority and disaster expansion. The multi source and multi sink (MSMD) large-scale evacuation model of the scattered general model is used to solve and compare the evacuation planning with the CCRP algorithm. The concept of "path efficiency risk" (RTE risk) and its quantitative evaluation framework model are proposed and the ITE wind of each section obtained at different times after the disaster occurs. The risk value can effectively reflect the dynamic changes of the evacuation network in the disaster environment considering the efficiency and risk.
At the level of evacuation guidance, the first is to study the propagation characteristics of panic and its influence on evacuation. A qualitative simulation model of large crowd evacuation is constructed by system dynamics method. By implementing various different input schemes to the model, it is found that there is no evacuation guide due to the model. The changing laws of panic controlled or out of control, as well as the spread of panic in the crowd under the disaster atmosphere, are more of the dominant emotion. The qualitative simulation model reveals the interrelationship between the key elements in the evacuation system and the influence of the panic mood in the evacuation system. The indeterminacy of the propagation is a typical phenomenon of "fast and slow" in the exit exit. Two is a quantitative study of the risk of large-scale evacuation with evacuation guidance. The concept of mass flow characteristic density is proposed. Based on the continuous crowd flow theory and the related empirical formula, the influence of large scale is derived. A series of characteristic density of population flow. Based on the acquired characteristic density and queuing theory, an infinite pedestrian crossing model is established. By calculating the related system efficiency indexes, the evacuation efficiency characteristics of different density groups under different evacuation guidance strategies are obtained. Based on the theoretical analysis and queuing simulation, the characteristics of the evacuation efficiency are obtained. The five characteristic density, a "crowd density risk axis" which can judge whether the evacuation strategy can improve the evacuation efficiency in large scale evacuation, and the three sections of the population density risk axis, representing three different characteristics of the evacuation strategy, which are the effective flow, the critical flow and the invalid flow, are represented by the large-scale evacuation clockwise. Through the reasonable numerical matching of evacuation risk, the density risk axis of the population is quantitatively interpreted.
At the level of mass evacuation, the influence of the population physiological and psychological factors on the large-scale evacuation is introduced and quantified, and the random Markov model of the mass evacuation route selection is established and amended. Based on the probability description of the Markov process, a variety of factors are analyzed in detail in the background of the transient leakage of CO gas. Especially the evacuation uncertainty under the influence of physiological and psychological factors. By analyzing the variation of the clearance time under the action of relevant parameters, it is found that there is a piecewise linear feature between the logarithm of the number of detained numbers and the evacuation time in the case of single factor change, and the clearance time increases with the logarithmic linear increase with the increase of the number of evacuations at the beginning. The law, with the increase of the maximum capacity of the node, presents a linear decrease with the increase of the maximum capacity of the node. In addition, the correction of the evacuation speed by the psychological panic of the personnel in the case of walking evacuation has little influence on the evacuation results as a whole, and the physiological risk of the personnel under the influence of poison gas has a significant influence on the evacuation results, and it must be involved in such emergencies as gas leakage. Therefore, the large-scale crowd emergency evacuation should be given priority attention.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：X93

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