發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-18 06:38

  本文選題：安全生產(chǎn) + 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)�。� 參考：《華東理工大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：考慮到工業(yè)化和城市化進(jìn)程中城市安全生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問題,面對(duì)已有研究對(duì)整體安全生產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)評(píng)價(jià)相對(duì)不足的現(xiàn)狀,探索如何構(gòu)建一套適合我國特別是上海特大城市的安全生產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)評(píng)價(jià)體系及模型,成為該領(lǐng)域風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的首要問題。 本文考慮從城市整體安全生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)出發(fā),采用指標(biāo)體系構(gòu)建、系統(tǒng)建模、實(shí)證分析的方法,綜合應(yīng)用安全管理、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理、數(shù)據(jù)包絡(luò)法(DEA)等多學(xué)科理論和方法,進(jìn)行基于DEA的城市安全生產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)評(píng)價(jià)及治理研究。 首先,基于災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)、歐洲多重風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估法和工業(yè)事故風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估法的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)評(píng)價(jià)的基本構(gòu)成,構(gòu)建基于“致災(zāi)因子—脆弱性”兩個(gè)構(gòu)成的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,分別從致災(zāi)因子和脆弱性兩個(gè)維度展開進(jìn)行指標(biāo)選取。 其次,運(yùn)用DEA構(gòu)建安全生產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)評(píng)價(jià)模型。分析事故產(chǎn)生機(jī)理,以脆弱性作為模型的輸入指標(biāo),以致災(zāi)因子的事故后果危險(xiǎn)性作為輸出指標(biāo),以事故產(chǎn)生效率模擬風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù),同時(shí)在模型應(yīng)用中運(yùn)用主成分分析法進(jìn)行改善。 最后,將上海18個(gè)區(qū)縣安全生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)代入DEA模型進(jìn)行計(jì)算,通過實(shí)證分析得到各區(qū)縣的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)排序,進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分區(qū),提出分級(jí)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)治理策略。通過與實(shí)際比較證明模型的有效性。 本文所提出的研究方法具有數(shù)據(jù)來源易得、計(jì)算便捷和結(jié)果有效的優(yōu)點(diǎn),可以為城市安全生產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理提供借鑒和參考。
[Abstract]:Considering the risks faced by urban production safety systems in the process of industrialization and urbanization, and in the face of the relatively inadequate evaluation of overall safety production risk indices,Exploring how to construct a set of safety production risk index evaluation system and model suitable for our country especially Shanghai mega-city becomes the primary problem of risk management in this field.Based on the risk evaluation of the whole urban safety production system, this paper adopts the methods of index system construction, system modeling, empirical analysis, comprehensive application of safety management, risk management, data envelopment method, and so on.This paper studies the evaluation and governance of urban safety production risk index based on DEA.First of all, based on disaster risk index, European multi-risk assessment method and industrial accident risk assessment method, a risk index evaluation index system based on "disaster-causing factor-vulnerability" is constructed.The indexes were selected from the two dimensions of disaster factors and vulnerability.Secondly, DEA is used to build a safety production risk index evaluation model.The mechanism of accident generation is analyzed. The vulnerability is taken as the input index of the model, and the accident consequence risk of the disaster factor is taken as the output index, and the risk index is simulated by the accident generation efficiency.At the same time, principal component analysis was used to improve the model.Finally, the relevant data of the safety production system of 18 districts and counties in Shanghai are added to the DEA model for calculation. Through empirical analysis, the ranking of the risk index of each district and county is obtained, the risk zoning is carried out, and the classified risk management strategy is put forward.The validity of the model is proved by comparison with practice.The research method proposed in this paper has the advantages of easy data source, convenient calculation and effective results. It can provide reference and reference for urban safety production risk management.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：X913.4

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本文編號(hào)：1767217