本文選題：復雜系統(tǒng)　切入點：安全風險　出處：《沈陽航空航天大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著科學技術水平的提高,系統(tǒng)的性能及功能越來越強大,結構越來越復雜,進而導致對系統(tǒng)的安全性要求也不斷提高。然而,傳統(tǒng)的安全風險分析方法往往以最終系統(tǒng)風險值來表征系統(tǒng)的安全狀況,這樣既不能揭示其風險狀況的本質,也不能準確的分析出較復雜系統(tǒng)的安全風險,進而無法找出系統(tǒng)的薄弱環(huán)節(jié),提出科學的控制措施。因此,安全風險分析的理論和方法亟待完善。因此,本文基于系統(tǒng)整體性原則,提出了安全風險集中度的概念,旨在利用安全風險集中度和系統(tǒng)風險值來共同揭示系統(tǒng)的安全性。安全風險集中度是用來描述風險分布情況的指標。本文以傳統(tǒng)安全性分析理論為基礎,根據(jù)研究目的并結合復雜系統(tǒng)自身特征,認為整個系統(tǒng)風險分布情況是由各單元對系統(tǒng)風險的影響程度、各風險單元滿足其風險可接受水平的程度以及各單元對系統(tǒng)相關性風險的貢獻度三個因素共同影響。同時借鑒風險評價指數(shù)法的思想,對系統(tǒng)安全風險集中度進行定性分析。進而構建安全風險集中度數(shù)學模型:首先,對系統(tǒng)內部各單元的風險性質及可能導致的事故類型進行分析。利用事故發(fā)生的可能性和嚴重性對風險進行表達,從而求得某一事故類型下各單元對系統(tǒng)風險的影響。再利用層次分析法,分析系統(tǒng)可能導致的所有事故的權重,進而對每一事故類型下的單元影響程度進行加權疊加。最終求得各單元對系統(tǒng)風險的影響程度;其次,利用灰色關聯(lián)理論確定各單元之間的風險相關性,進而求得影響安全風險集中度的第二因素,即單元對系統(tǒng)相關性風險的貢獻度;接著,根據(jù)ALARP原則,確定各風險單元滿足其風險可接受水平的程度。最后,利用乘法原理,對影響安全風險集中度的三個因素的數(shù)學表達式進行合成,構成安全風險集中度數(shù)學模型。并以化工園區(qū)為實例,對數(shù)學模型的有效性進行驗證。
[Abstract]:With the improvement of science and technology, the performance and function of the system are becoming more and more powerful, and the structure is becoming more and more complex.However, the traditional security risk analysis methods often use the final system risk value to represent the security situation of the system, which can neither reveal the nature of the risk situation nor accurately analyze the security risk of the more complex system.Then the weak links of the system can not be found, and scientific control measures are put forward.Therefore, the theory and method of safety risk analysis need to be improved.Therefore, based on the principle of system integrity, this paper puts forward the concept of security risk concentration, which aims to reveal the security of the system by using the security risk concentration and the system risk value.Security risk concentration is used to describe the risk distribution.Based on the traditional safety analysis theory, according to the purpose of the research and the characteristics of the complex system, this paper considers that the risk distribution of the whole system is the influence degree of each unit on the system risk.The degree to which each risk unit meets its acceptable risk level and the contribution of each unit to system-dependent risk are affected together.At the same time, using the idea of risk evaluation index method, the system security risk concentration degree is qualitatively analyzed.Then the mathematical model of safety risk concentration degree is constructed. Firstly, the risk nature of each unit in the system and the possible accident types are analyzed.The possibility and severity of the accident are used to express the risk, and the influence of each unit on the system risk under a certain accident type is obtained.Then the weight of all possible accidents caused by the system is analyzed by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and then the influence degree of the unit under each type of accident is weighted superimposed.Finally, the influence degree of each unit on the system risk is obtained. Secondly, the risk correlation among each unit is determined by using the grey relational theory, and the second factor that affects the concentration of security risk is obtained.Then, according to the ALARP principle, the degree to which each risk unit meets its acceptable risk level is determined.Finally, the mathematical expressions of three factors affecting the concentration degree of safety risk are synthesized by using the multiplication principle, and the mathematical model of the safety risk concentration degree is constructed.The validity of the mathematical model is verified by taking the chemical park as an example.
【學位授予單位】：沈陽航空航天大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X913

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本文編號：1711592