本文選題：航班安全　切入點：運行風險耦合　出處：《中國安全科學(xué)學(xué)報》2017年07期

【摘要】：為定量分析風險多因素間互相影響,以民用航空安全統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),使用N-K模型和耦合度模型分別對航班運行數(shù)據(jù)進行計算得到耦合值。系統(tǒng)分析在地面和空中時航班運行風險耦合情況。結(jié)果表明:空中運行航班,受空管因素影響不大,當機組方面存在風險時,需特別注意天氣與機械故障;航班在地面時,避免3個及以上因素同時發(fā)生即可有效管控風險。無論在地面或空中,機械維修與天氣因素耦合度值較高,兩者同時發(fā)生將嚴重威脅運行安全。2種模型所得耦合度數(shù)值趨勢吻合度較高。
[Abstract]:In order to quantitatively analyze the interaction between the risk factors, the N-K model and the coupling degree model are used to calculate the flight operation data to get the coupling value based on the civil aviation safety statistics.The risk coupling of flight running on the ground and in the air is analyzed systematically.The results show that the flight running in the air is not affected by the air traffic control factors. When there is a risk to the crew, special attention should be paid to the weather and mechanical failure, and when the flight is on the ground, the risk can be effectively controlled by avoiding three or more factors at the same time.Whether on the ground or in the air, the coupling degree of mechanical maintenance and weather factors is high, and the coupling degree of two models will seriously threaten the safety of operation.
【作者單位】： 中國民航大學(xué)空管運行安全技術(shù)國家重點實驗室;
【基金】：民航局科技項目(20150204) 中央高�；究蒲袠I(yè)務(wù)費資助(3122014D041)
【分類號】：V328
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本文編號：1706134