本文選題：原油進口　切入點：海運安全　出處：《大連海事大學》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：2010年1月27日,國家能源委員會成立,表明中國正從更高的全球視野來審視能源的戰(zhàn)略地位,保證國家能源安全。近年來,由于交通運輸、農(nóng)業(yè)機具的大量增加,工業(yè)部門用煤限制加大,加速了原油的消費,為了彌補國內(nèi)原油生產(chǎn)能力的不足,使得近年來原油進口量總體上呈迅速攀升的趨勢,據(jù)海關(guān)統(tǒng)計2012年我國原油進口量已達到2.71億噸,原油對外依存度為56.4%。原油貿(mào)易90%以上是由海上運輸完成的,然而我國“國油國運”比例卻遠低于美國、日本、韓國等原油進口國,這使得我國原油運輸長期以來受制于人。較高的進口依存度,加之變幻莫測的國際形勢,特別是原油產(chǎn)國的局勢變動,對我國原油進口安全提出了嚴峻的挑戰(zhàn)。因此,對我國現(xiàn)階段進口原油海上運輸安全和未來發(fā)展趨勢進行分析研究,建立我國進口原油海上運輸安全評價與預警系統(tǒng)已成為保障我國經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定發(fā)展亟待解決的問題。 本文在分析了1996年至2012年我國原油進口的海運量需求情況的基礎(chǔ)上運用趨勢外推方法、灰色預測和BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡的的組合預測模型,對2013年至2017年我國原油進口海運量進行預測,運用二次曲線趨勢外推法、線性二次移動平均法、線性二次指數(shù)平滑法等預測方法,對2013年至2017年我國各原油進口海運航線上的海運需求量進行預測。在對我國油輪船隊運力分析的基礎(chǔ)上,建立基于承運份額考慮的油輪船隊多階段動態(tài)規(guī)劃數(shù)學模型,為我國原油進口海運船隊規(guī)模優(yōu)化提供決策參考。然后系統(tǒng)分析了我國原油進口海運安全的影響因素,構(gòu)建了我國原油進口海運安全評價體系,并應用基于云模型的綜合評價方法對目前我國原油進口海運安全系統(tǒng)進行評價。最后,建立了我國原油進口海運安全預警模型,運用Visual Basic6.0編程語言建立了我國原油進口海運安全預警系統(tǒng),對未來我國原油進口海運安全的發(fā)展趨勢進行預測,并分別根據(jù)五個預警子系統(tǒng)預警分析結(jié)果,提出了保障我國原油進口海運安全的預控措施和保障機制。上述研究成果具有重要的理論與現(xiàn)實意義。
[Abstract]:On January 27, 2010, the National Energy Commission was established, indicating that China is examining the strategic position of energy from a higher global perspective to ensure national energy security. Increased restrictions on coal use in the industrial sector have accelerated the consumption of crude oil. In order to make up for the shortage of domestic crude oil production capacity, the import of crude oil in recent years has generally shown a trend of rapid increase. According to customs statistics, China's crude oil imports reached 271 million tons in 2012, and its dependence on foreign crude oil was 56.4. More than 90 percent of the crude oil trade was completed by sea transportation. However, the proportion of China's "national oil and national transportation" is far lower than that of the United States and Japan. For crude oil importing countries such as South Korea, this has made China's crude oil transportation under the control of people for a long time. The high degree of import dependence, coupled with the unpredictable international situation, especially the changes in the situation of crude oil producing countries, This paper presents a severe challenge to the import safety of crude oil in China. Therefore, the paper analyzes and studies the maritime transportation safety and future development trend of imported crude oil in China at the present stage. It has become an urgent problem to establish the safety evaluation and early warning system for China's import crude oil maritime transportation to ensure the stable development of our country's economy. Based on the analysis of the demand of China's crude oil import volume from 1996 to 2012, the trend extrapolation method, the combined forecasting model of grey forecast and BP neural network are used in this paper. The prediction of China's crude oil import volume from 2013 to 2017 is carried out by using quadratic trend extrapolation method, linear quadratic moving average method, linear quadratic exponential smoothing method, and so on. Based on the analysis of the shipping capacity of China's tanker fleet, the multi-stage dynamic programming mathematical model of tanker fleet is established based on the analysis of the shipping capacity of China's tanker fleet, which is based on the forecast of the demand for marine transportation on China's crude oil import shipping routes from 2013 to 2017. This paper provides a decision reference for the scale optimization of China's crude oil import maritime fleet, and then systematically analyzes the influencing factors of China's crude oil import maritime transport safety, and constructs an evaluation system of China's crude oil import maritime transport safety. Finally, an early warning model of China's crude oil import maritime security is established by using a comprehensive evaluation method based on cloud model. Using Visual Basic6.0 programming language, the paper establishes the early warning system of China's crude oil import maritime transportation security, forecasts the development trend of China's crude oil import maritime transportation security in the future, and analyzes the results according to the warning results of five early warning subsystems respectively. This paper puts forward the pre-control measures and guarantee mechanism for the safety of China's crude oil import and shipping. The above research results have important theoretical and practical significance.
【學位授予單位】：大連海事大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：U698.3;U695.28

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