本文選題：煤礦安全　切入點：風險耦合　出處：《中國礦業(yè)大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來，我國煤礦事故頻發(fā)，事故的發(fā)生不僅造成了巨大的經(jīng)濟損失而且產(chǎn)生了不良的社會影響。然而煤礦事故的發(fā)生并不是單一因素作用的結果，而是多種因素相互作用、相互影響，從而導致事故的發(fā)生。這就要求在進行分析煤礦企業(yè)風險水平的時候，不僅要系統(tǒng)分析煤礦事故單個因素的作用，，還要綜合分析煤礦系統(tǒng)各因素之間的耦合作用。 論文在以大量文獻的基礎上，首先對風險的內涵和特征進行了解，明白了煤礦事故風險與其它風險的共通性和特殊性，在此基礎上，分析煤礦事故風險耦合的內涵，給出了煤礦事故風險耦合的定義，并對按照不同的作用方式對風險耦合進行分類，又進一步說明了煤礦企業(yè)最擔心的正耦合的形成機理。 其次,分析了煤礦事故同質因素和異質因素耦合的因果關系，分析出了四個子系統(tǒng)之間的相互作用的規(guī)律，為我們更好的分析煤礦事故風險產(chǎn)生的原因提供一個平臺。再利用耦合度模型對煤礦四個子系統(tǒng)之間的耦合作用大小進行度量，這樣我們就能夠定量的分析出風險因素之間的耦合程度的大小。 然后,應用系統(tǒng)動力學(SD)的理論和建模方法,建立了相應的煤礦人-管系統(tǒng)仿真模型,運行系統(tǒng)動力學仿真軟件Vensim-PLE進行仿真。以關鍵因素的耦合度為例,調整不同關鍵因素耦合度系數(shù),仿真觀測耦合度系數(shù)與人-管系統(tǒng)風險水平的相關度,并提出了多種決策方案,應用具體案例加以對比分析,預測煤礦風險水平的未來發(fā)展趨勢,有助于煤礦事故防范長效機制的建立。 最后,引入解耦合的思想，提出相應的管理策略，以便有效地管理和控制煤礦事故耦合風險的產(chǎn)生。
[Abstract]:In recent years, coal mine accidents occur frequently in our country. The accidents not only cause huge economic losses but also produce bad social effects. However, the occurrence of coal mine accidents is not the result of a single factor, but the interaction of many factors. When analyzing the risk level of coal mine enterprises, we should analyze not only the action of single factor of coal mine accident, but also the coupling effect of each factor in coal mine system. On the basis of a large number of documents, this paper first understands the connotation and characteristics of the risk, and then understands the commonness and particularity between the risk of coal mine accident and other risks. On this basis, it analyzes the connotation of the coupling of the risk of coal mine accident. The definition of coal mine accident risk coupling is given, and the risk coupling is classified according to different action modes, and the formation mechanism of positive coupling which is most worried by coal mine enterprises is further explained. Secondly, the causality of the coupling of homogeneous factors and heterogeneous factors in coal mine accidents is analyzed, and the law of interaction between the four subsystems is analyzed. It provides a platform for us to better analyze the causes of coal mine accident risk. The coupling degree model is used to measure the coupling effect between the four subsystems of coal mine. In this way, we can quantitatively analyze the degree of coupling between risk factors. Then, applying the theory and modeling method of system dynamics (SDD), the corresponding simulation model of man-pipe system in coal mine is established, and the simulation software Vensim-PLE is run. The coupling degree of key factors is taken as an example. The coupling coefficient of different key factors is adjusted and the correlation between coupling degree coefficient and risk level of man-tube system is observed by simulation. Predicting the future development trend of coal mine risk level is helpful to the establishment of long effect mechanism of coal mine accident prevention. Finally, the idea of decoupling is introduced, and the corresponding management strategy is put forward in order to manage and control the coupling risk of coal mine accidents effectively.
【學位授予單位】：中國礦業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TD77

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