發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-03-25 12:15

  本文選題：臺(tái)風(fēng)浪場(chǎng)　切入點(diǎn)：確定方法　出處：《大連海事大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：目前,中國各大遠(yuǎn)洋運(yùn)輸公司船舶駕駛員和公司海務(wù)安全管理人員在制定避臺(tái)方案時(shí),主要參考日本JMH發(fā)布的7級(jí)和10級(jí)大風(fēng)范圍、臺(tái)風(fēng)中心附近的氣壓和船舶到臺(tái)風(fēng)中心的距離這三個(gè)要素,通常不考慮臺(tái)風(fēng)浪場(chǎng),而臺(tái)風(fēng)浪場(chǎng)的破壞性和重要性也不容忽視。因此,為了補(bǔ)充和完善船舶避臺(tái)方案,輔助船舶更加安全、經(jīng)濟(jì)地避臺(tái),本文提出了船舶避臺(tái)實(shí)用臺(tái)風(fēng)浪場(chǎng)的快速確定方法。本文橫向?qū)Ρ攘酥袊鴩液Ｑ蟓h(huán)境預(yù)報(bào)中心和日本氣象廳對(duì)以往6個(gè)臺(tái)風(fēng)的海浪預(yù)報(bào)精度(3m和4m浪場(chǎng)),分析了臺(tái)風(fēng)浪場(chǎng)和風(fēng)場(chǎng)之間的關(guān)系,基于包絡(luò)線原理提出了快速確定臺(tái)風(fēng)浪場(chǎng)的方法,即中日包絡(luò)線綜合浪場(chǎng),并在忽略風(fēng)場(chǎng)、氣壓、距離三要素,只考慮浪場(chǎng)因素的條件下,對(duì)1415號(hào)臺(tái)風(fēng)“海鷗”活動(dòng)期間的臺(tái)風(fēng)浪場(chǎng)使用該方法進(jìn)行了兩次船舶避臺(tái)模擬。得到如下主要結(jié)論：(1)就對(duì)這6個(gè)臺(tái)風(fēng)的海浪預(yù)報(bào)而言,從總體平均預(yù)報(bào)精度上看,日本預(yù)報(bào)的更準(zhǔn)確,但從單次預(yù)報(bào)精度上看,有些時(shí)候中國預(yù)報(bào)的更準(zhǔn)確。但以往預(yù)報(bào)準(zhǔn)確率的高低不能代表未來的預(yù)報(bào)水平,因此,建議船舶要綜合參考中國和日本的海浪預(yù)報(bào)。(2)對(duì)同一臺(tái)風(fēng)同一天浪場(chǎng)和風(fēng)場(chǎng)的預(yù)報(bào),無論是中國還是日本,其單獨(dú)風(fēng)圈、綜合風(fēng)圈都與綜合浪圈相交,有很大一部分浪場(chǎng)區(qū)域是風(fēng)場(chǎng)沒有覆蓋到的。這說明船舶避臺(tái)只考慮風(fēng)場(chǎng)是不夠的、不完全的,浪場(chǎng)也應(yīng)該考慮。(3)實(shí)例1中船舶只參考中國的海浪預(yù)報(bào)避臺(tái)失敗,而參考中日綜合浪場(chǎng)重新設(shè)計(jì)航線避臺(tái)成功；實(shí)例2中船舶只參考日本的海浪預(yù)報(bào)避臺(tái)失敗,而參考中日綜合浪場(chǎng)重新設(shè)計(jì)航線避臺(tái)成功。兩次模擬中的正例和反例鮮明有力地論證了本文提出的快速確定臺(tái)風(fēng)浪場(chǎng)的方法具有一定的實(shí)用性和可行性,如果將其補(bǔ)充到“三要素”避臺(tái)方案中,可以幫助船舶更加安全、經(jīng)濟(jì)地避臺(tái)。
[Abstract]:At present, the ship pilots of the major ocean shipping companies in China and the marine safety management personnel of the companies mainly refer to the level 7 and 10 gale ranges issued by the Japanese JMH when formulating the sheltering plan. The atmospheric pressure near the typhoon center and the distance between the ship and the typhoon center are three factors, which are usually not considered, and the destructive and importance of the typhoon wave field can not be ignored. Therefore, in order to supplement and perfect the ship avoidance scheme, Auxiliary ships are safer and more economical to avoid the platform, In this paper, a fast method for determining the wave field of practical typhoon for ship avoidance is put forward. The wave field accuracy of 3 m and 4 m for the past 6 typhoons by the National Marine Environment Forecast Center of China and the Japan Meteorological Agency are compared in this paper. The relationship between typhoon wave field and wind field, Based on the principle of envelope line, a fast method for determining typhoon wave field is put forward, that is, the integrated wave field of Chinese and Japanese envelope line. The wind field, air pressure and distance are ignored, and only wave field factors are considered. The typhoon wave field during typhoon 1415 "seagull" activity is simulated twice by using this method. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) in terms of the overall average prediction accuracy of the six typhoons, the main conclusions are as follows: 1. Japan's forecast is more accurate, but in terms of the accuracy of a single forecast, sometimes China's forecast is more accurate. However, the level of accuracy in the past does not represent the level of future forecasts, so, It is suggested that the ship should make a comprehensive reference to the wave forecast of China and Japan) and forecast the wave field and wind field of the same typhoon on the same day. Whether in China or Japan, the single wind circle and the integrated wind circle are intersected with the integrated wave wave. A large part of the wave field area is not covered by the wind field. This shows that it is not enough for the ship to consider the wind field only, and the wave field should also be considered. In case 2, the ship only refers to the failure of Japan's wave forecast avoidance. With reference to the comprehensive wave field between China and Japan, the route avoidance has been successfully redesigned. The positive and negative examples in the two simulations demonstrate clearly and forcefully that the method proposed in this paper for fast determination of typhoon wave field has certain practicability and feasibility. If it is added to the "three elements" scheme, it can help the ship to avoid the platform more safely and economically.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：U698

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