本文選題：海事作業(yè)氣象保障　切入點：近海漁船　出處：《大連海事大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著海洋捕撈業(yè)的快速發(fā)展,漁船海損事故高居不下。風(fēng)災(zāi)事故在漁船全損事故的比重超過一半,且漁船一旦發(fā)生全損,往往導(dǎo)致嚴(yán)重的人員傷亡和財產(chǎn)損失。國內(nèi)各相關(guān)政府機(jī)構(gòu)和氣象部門開展的海事氣象服務(wù)中,已推出針對漁業(yè)的氣象預(yù)報。此類服務(wù)不僅為漁業(yè)管理部門指揮避災(zāi)提供參考,而且還為減少和避免漁民生命與財產(chǎn)損失做出巨大貢獻(xiàn)�，F(xiàn)行漁業(yè)氣象服務(wù)和相關(guān)研究中,多側(cè)重氣象預(yù)報資料的獲取,預(yù)報方法以及預(yù)報精度等方面。針對漁業(yè)船舶船型不一、通信手段單一以及應(yīng)變反應(yīng)慢等不足還未較多涉足,從而導(dǎo)致相關(guān)預(yù)報產(chǎn)品,缺乏針對性和專業(yè)性,與傳統(tǒng)預(yù)報類似,具有精細(xì)化不足、功能單一的缺點。本文針對以上不足,做了以下工作：(1)對各漁船船型進(jìn)行研究,通過數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)研和查閱文獻(xiàn)獲取相關(guān)資料,并依據(jù)專家問卷調(diào)查結(jié)果,建立了基于模糊綜合評判方法的黃渤海海區(qū)漁業(yè)船舶的風(fēng)險評估模型；(2)設(shè)計相關(guān)海區(qū)氣象預(yù)警與避險評估系統(tǒng)。該系統(tǒng)可根據(jù)專業(yè)氣象部門提供的數(shù)值天氣預(yù)報數(shù)據(jù),直觀顯示各漁區(qū)未來72h的風(fēng)、浪、流等水文氣象狀況,根據(jù)預(yù)設(shè)的漁業(yè)船舶風(fēng)險評估模型,實時地進(jìn)行各船型風(fēng)險評估,并根據(jù)評估結(jié)果給出風(fēng)險預(yù)警；對漁船避風(fēng)方案進(jìn)行模擬推演和風(fēng)險預(yù)估,給出相關(guān)漁區(qū)各船型最佳避風(fēng)港口選擇方案；(3)進(jìn)行功能驗證實驗,分析時效性和安全性,總結(jié)不足和待改進(jìn)之處。本課題有助于氣象部門做出更具時效性,針對性的專業(yè)氣象服務(wù)。結(jié)合黃渤海海洋氣象平臺,提供實時、動態(tài)、直觀的圖像化預(yù)警和風(fēng)險評估界面,方便相關(guān)部門第一時間做出漁業(yè)避險指揮決策,有效的保障漁業(yè)人民生命和財產(chǎn)安全。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the marine fishing industry, the average accident of fishing vessels is very high. The proportion of wind disaster accidents in total losses of fishing vessels is more than half, and once the fishing vessels have suffered total losses, Often leading to serious casualties and property losses. Among the maritime meteorological services carried out by relevant government agencies and meteorological departments in China, meteorological forecasts for fisheries have been launched. Such services not only provide a reference for fisheries management departments to direct disaster avoidance, In addition, it has made a great contribution to reducing and avoiding the loss of life and property of fishermen. In the current fishery meteorological services and related studies, more emphasis has been placed on the acquisition of meteorological forecast data. The methods and precision of forecast have not been involved in many aspects, such as different types of fishing vessels, single means of communication and slow strain response, which leads to the lack of pertinence and professionalism of related forecast products, which is similar to traditional forecasting. Aiming at the above shortcomings, this paper has done the following work: 1) to study the vessel types of each fishing vessel, to obtain relevant information through data research and literature review, and according to the results of expert questionnaire, A risk assessment model for fishing vessels in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea area based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is established. The system can be used to design the meteorological early warning and risk avoidance assessment system in the relevant sea areas. The system can be based on the numerical weather forecast data provided by the specialized meteorological departments. The hydrometeorological conditions such as wind, wave and current in each fishing area in the next 72 hours are displayed intuitively. According to the preset risk assessment model of fishery vessel, the risk assessment of each ship type is carried out in real time, and the risk early warning is given according to the evaluation results. The simulation and risk estimation of fishing vessel's wind avoidance scheme are carried out, and the function verification experiment is carried out to analyze the timeliness and safety of each ship's best harbor selection scheme in the relevant fishing area. This topic is helpful for meteorological departments to provide more timely and targeted specialized meteorological services. Combined with the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea marine meteorological platform, it provides real-time, dynamic and intuitive graphical interface for early warning and risk assessment. It is convenient for the relevant departments to make the decision of fishery risk avoidance in the first time, and to ensure the safety of fishery people's life and property.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U698

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