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  本文選題：動態(tài)風(fēng)險分析　切入點：失效致因模型　出處：《北京交通大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：在安全苛求系統(tǒng)中,風(fēng)險分析是系統(tǒng)安全性的評價指標。風(fēng)險一般與事故發(fā)生頻率以及造成的損失有關(guān)。事故的發(fā)生與設(shè)備故障,人因錯誤及組織管理都有關(guān)系。本文提出了包含技術(shù)、設(shè)備,人因及組織管理的動態(tài)風(fēng)險分析方法,并構(gòu)建了動態(tài)風(fēng)險分析模型以及動態(tài)風(fēng)險分析方法。 本篇論文的主要工作包括： 一、對安全苛求系統(tǒng)種常見的風(fēng)險分析方法進行綜述,簡單介紹了風(fēng)險的定義以及風(fēng)險分析在各個領(lǐng)域以及國內(nèi)外的研究現(xiàn)狀,并總結(jié)了三代風(fēng)險分析理論中各自的關(guān)注點。 二、結(jié)合系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型、Petri網(wǎng)模型以及主體代理模型的特點,從組織管理、人因到技術(shù)、設(shè)備層面,提出動態(tài)風(fēng)險分析模型框架,構(gòu)建動態(tài)風(fēng)險分析方法,覆蓋了風(fēng)險分析中建模、驗證及仿真分析。同時引入蒙特卡洛實驗,完成動態(tài)隨機的模擬仿真。通過模擬仿真、參數(shù)優(yōu)化實驗、參數(shù)敏感度分析實驗以及參數(shù)對比實驗,滿足用戶需求。 三、在AnyLogic平臺上,借助擴展庫開發(fā)工具,開發(fā)與模型相適應(yīng)的Extend Petri Nets庫和Human Factors庫,實現(xiàn)動態(tài)風(fēng)險分析模型建模平臺的統(tǒng)一。結(jié)合蒙特卡洛實驗方法,對真實不確定性系統(tǒng)的模擬進行了仿真實驗。 四、以鐵路系統(tǒng)這個安全苛求系統(tǒng)為例,對管理子系統(tǒng)、人力資源子系統(tǒng)、維護和維修子系統(tǒng)以及運營場景四方面進行建模分析,實現(xiàn)了動態(tài)風(fēng)險分析理論從建模到仿真分析的整個過程,驗證了動態(tài)分析方法的有效性。
[Abstract]:In safety demanding system, risk analysis is the evaluation index of system safety. The risk is generally related to the frequency of accidents and the losses caused by accidents, and the occurrence of accidents and equipment failures, This paper presents a dynamic risk analysis method including technology, equipment, human factor and organization management, and constructs a dynamic risk analysis model and a dynamic risk analysis method. The main work of this thesis includes:. The main contents are as follows: 1. The common risk analysis methods of safety demanding system are summarized. The definition of risk and the research status of risk analysis in various fields and at home and abroad are briefly introduced, and their respective concerns in the third generation risk analysis theory are summarized. Secondly, according to the characteristics of system dynamics model, Petri net model and agent model, from organization management, human factor to technology and equipment, a dynamic risk analysis model framework is put forward, and a dynamic risk analysis method is constructed. It covers modeling, verification and simulation analysis in risk analysis. At the same time, Monte Carlo experiment is introduced to complete dynamic random simulation. Through simulation simulation, parameter optimization experiment, parameter sensitivity analysis experiment and parameter contrast experiment, Meet the needs of users. Thirdly, on the AnyLogic platform, the Extend Petri Nets library and the Human Factors library, which are suitable for the model, are developed with the help of the extended library development tools to realize the unification of the modeling platform of the dynamic risk analysis model. The simulation experiment of the real uncertain system is carried out. Fourthly, taking the railway system as an example, the management subsystem, the human resource subsystem, the maintenance and maintenance subsystem and the operation scenario are modeled and analyzed. The whole process of dynamic risk analysis theory from modeling to simulation analysis is realized, and the validity of dynamic analysis method is verified.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U298;TP311.52

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