本文選題：煤與瓦斯突出　切入點(diǎn)：預(yù)測(cè)指標(biāo)　出處：《遼寧工程技術(shù)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：煤與瓦斯突出的預(yù)測(cè)和防治是突出礦井萬(wàn)事之首,準(zhǔn)確的預(yù)測(cè)方法和合理的預(yù)測(cè)指標(biāo)及其臨界值不但能夠降低煤與瓦斯突出的危害還能為合理設(shè)計(jì)防突方案及措施提供依據(jù)。采用現(xiàn)場(chǎng)試驗(yàn)、理論分析相結(jié)合的方法,以章村煤礦工作面煤與瓦斯突出預(yù)測(cè)為工程背景,對(duì)突出工作面煤與瓦斯突出預(yù)測(cè)敏感指標(biāo)及其臨界值和最優(yōu)區(qū)間進(jìn)行了研究。建立了多指標(biāo)加權(quán)灰靶決策模型,通過(guò)模型求解得出突出工作面煤與瓦斯突出預(yù)測(cè)三個(gè)單項(xiàng)指標(biāo)的排序是△h2gS,單項(xiàng)指標(biāo)中最不適應(yīng)使用的指標(biāo)是S,指出敏感指標(biāo)為△h2、g。建立了工作面煤與瓦斯突出預(yù)測(cè)的綜合指標(biāo)F’的改進(jìn)多指標(biāo)加權(quán)灰靶決策模型。計(jì)算得出了21個(gè)決策評(píng)價(jià)方案與效果向量的靶心距,得出F’臨界值的排序,排序第一的是F’=400,并列排序第二的是F’=390和380,即F’理論最優(yōu)臨界值為400,其次是390和380。建立了工作面煤與瓦斯突出預(yù)測(cè)指標(biāo)臨界區(qū)間的灰色多級(jí)多指標(biāo)加權(quán)區(qū)間數(shù)關(guān)聯(lián)決策模型,根據(jù)一級(jí)決策模型得出F’臨界值的最優(yōu)區(qū)間為[350,400],在一級(jí)決策所得最優(yōu)區(qū)間的基礎(chǔ)上開(kāi)展了二級(jí)決策評(píng)價(jià),得出最優(yōu)區(qū)間為[370,380]。以上兩個(gè)模型中臨界值具有一個(gè)交叉即F’值取380為最優(yōu)臨界值,既能保證具有較近的靶心距又能保證落在最優(yōu)區(qū)間內(nèi),證明在煤與瓦斯突出預(yù)測(cè)敏感指標(biāo)及其臨界值研究中將以上兩個(gè)模型綜合使用對(duì)指標(biāo)臨界值的確定具有更嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)、更科學(xué)的作用,能夠提高臨界值的精度和嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)性。通過(guò)該礦工作面煤與瓦斯突出預(yù)測(cè)工作現(xiàn)場(chǎng)實(shí)際驗(yàn)證了綜合指標(biāo)F’及其臨界值的合理性,對(duì)現(xiàn)場(chǎng)工作面煤與瓦斯突出預(yù)測(cè)具有具有指導(dǎo)意義。
[Abstract]:The prediction and prevention of coal and gas outburst is the first of all things in an outburst mine. Accurate prediction method, reasonable prediction index and its critical value can not only reduce the harm of coal and gas outburst, but also provide basis for reasonable design of outburst prevention schemes and measures. Based on the prediction of coal and gas outburst in Zhangcun coal face as engineering background, the sensitive index and critical value and optimal interval of coal and gas outburst prediction in coal and gas outburst working face are studied, and the decision model of weighted grey target with multiple indexes is established. By solving the model, it is concluded that the order of three single indexes of coal and gas outburst prediction in outburst working face is h2gSand the most unsuitable index is S. it is pointed out that the sensitive index is h2g. the coal and gas outburst of working face is established. An improved multi-index weighted grey target decision model for predicting the synthetic index F'is presented. The target distance between 21 decision evaluation schemes and effect vectors is calculated. We get the sort of critical value of F', The first ranking is FXY 400, and the second is FGW 390 and 380, that is, the optimal critical value of F' theory is 400, followed by 390 and 380. A grey multilevel multiindex weighted interval correlation decision model for predicting coal and gas outburst in coal face is established. According to the first-order decision model, the optimal interval of the critical value of F'is [350,400]. Based on the optimal interval obtained from the first-order decision, the second-order decision evaluation is carried out. It is concluded that the optimal interval is [370,380]. The critical value of the above two models has a crossover, that is, the F' value is taken as the optimal critical value, which can guarantee both the close range of the target center and the fall within the optimal interval. It is proved that in the study of sensitive index and critical value of coal and gas outburst prediction, it is more precise and scientific to use the above two models to determine the critical value of the index. It can improve the accuracy and preciseness of the critical value. The rationality of the comprehensive index F'and its critical value has been verified by the work site of coal and gas outburst prediction in the coal and gas mining face of this mine, which is of guiding significance to the prediction of coal and gas outburst in the working face.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧工程技術(shù)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TD713

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