本文選題：危險(xiǎn)貨物運(yùn)輸　切入點(diǎn)：系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)　出處：《北京交通大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：摘要：隨著石油化工產(chǎn)業(yè)的快速發(fā)展,危險(xiǎn)化學(xué)品的需求量逐年增加,危險(xiǎn)貨物運(yùn)輸量也隨之增長(zhǎng)。由于危險(xiǎn)貨物的高危險(xiǎn)性特點(diǎn),其安全運(yùn)輸問(wèn)題變得日益嚴(yán)峻。近年來(lái)我國(guó)夏季高溫天氣較為頻繁,危險(xiǎn)貨物道路運(yùn)輸事故高發(fā)。為了保障夏季高溫危險(xiǎn)貨物的運(yùn)輸安全,各地政府部門(mén)紛紛出臺(tái)道路危險(xiǎn)貨物高溫限運(yùn)政策,此類(lèi)政策往往站在運(yùn)輸安全的角度考慮,忽略了對(duì)企業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展造成的影響,不利于政策的貫徹落實(shí)。因此,如何制定一個(gè)科學(xué)合理的高溫限運(yùn)政策,使得運(yùn)輸安全與企業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展達(dá)到平衡顯得尤其重要。 為了分析高溫環(huán)境下危險(xiǎn)貨物道路運(yùn)輸系統(tǒng),預(yù)演高溫限運(yùn)政策方案與運(yùn)輸安全、企業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)效益之間的動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)系,本文在對(duì)危險(xiǎn)貨物道路運(yùn)輸系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行分析的基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)(System Dynamics,簡(jiǎn)稱(chēng)SD)方法建立道路危險(xiǎn)貨物高溫限運(yùn)政策優(yōu)化仿真模型,并進(jìn)行實(shí)例分析,為制定合理的危險(xiǎn)貨物高溫限運(yùn)政策提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。研究?jī)?nèi)容主要如下： 首先,介紹了本文的研究背景、研究意義,明確了研究目的、研究主要內(nèi)容、研究方法和技術(shù)路線：其次,概括性地闡述了研究方法的相關(guān)理論,分析了危險(xiǎn)貨物道路運(yùn)輸系統(tǒng)以及高溫限運(yùn)政策對(duì)運(yùn)輸作業(yè)、運(yùn)輸安全、企業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響。然后,進(jìn)行道路危險(xiǎn)貨物高溫限運(yùn)政策仿真模型研究,將其劃分為“運(yùn)輸需求”、“法規(guī)”、“違規(guī)運(yùn)輸行為”、“事故”與“企業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)”五個(gè)子系統(tǒng),并分別進(jìn)行分析,確定其主要因素及其相互之間的耦合關(guān)系,建立結(jié)構(gòu)方程式,構(gòu)建SD模型。最后,以北京市為例應(yīng)用該模型,采用問(wèn)卷調(diào)查、重點(diǎn)企業(yè)訪談、歷史數(shù)據(jù)搜集分析、經(jīng)驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)分析等方法確定模型參數(shù)及具體的限運(yùn)政策方案(包括限運(yùn)時(shí)段、罰款標(biāo)準(zhǔn)、基準(zhǔn)處罰率)。并模擬分析實(shí)施不同方案時(shí),事故數(shù)及企業(yè)利潤(rùn)的變化情況,以此為依據(jù)比較不同限運(yùn)政策方案的優(yōu)劣。 本文得出的主要結(jié)論有：危險(xiǎn)貨物高溫限運(yùn)政策對(duì)于減少危險(xiǎn)貨物道路運(yùn)輸事故數(shù)的作用顯著,但是在制定政策時(shí)需要考慮對(duì)企業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)效益的影響。當(dāng)政策過(guò)于嚴(yán)格時(shí),不利于企業(yè)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展；當(dāng)政策過(guò)于放松時(shí),企業(yè)則會(huì)為了獲得經(jīng)濟(jì)利益,冒險(xiǎn)違規(guī)運(yùn)輸,達(dá)不到制定政策的初衷。以北京市為例,采取中等嚴(yán)格政策(限運(yùn)30天,罰款標(biāo)準(zhǔn)為5000元/起,基準(zhǔn)處罰率為50%)最為合適。
[Abstract]:Abstract: with the rapid development of petrochemical industry, the demand for dangerous chemicals increases year by year, and the volume of transport of dangerous goods also increases. In recent years, the high temperature weather in summer in our country is more frequent, and the accidents of road transportation of dangerous goods are very high. In order to ensure the transportation safety of dangerous goods in summer high temperature, The local government departments have issued the road dangerous goods high temperature limit transportation policy one after another, this kind of policy often stands in the transportation safety angle consideration, neglects to the enterprise economic development which causes the influence, does not favor the policy to carry out. Therefore, It is very important to make a scientific and reasonable policy of limiting transportation at high temperature so as to balance transportation safety with the development of enterprise economy. In order to analyze the road transportation system of dangerous goods in the high temperature environment and the dynamic relationship between the policy scheme of high temperature limited transportation policy and transportation safety and the economic benefits of enterprises, this paper analyzes the road transportation system of dangerous goods. The optimization simulation model of high temperature limited transport policy of dangerous goods on the road is established by using the system dynamics system dynamics (SDS) method, and an example analysis is carried out to provide the scientific basis for making a reasonable policy of limiting the transportation of dangerous goods at high temperature. The main contents of the research are as follows:. First of all, it introduces the research background, significance, purpose, main contents, research methods and technical route. Secondly, the relevant theories of the research methods are summarized. This paper analyzes the influence of road transportation system of dangerous goods and high temperature limited transportation policy on transportation operation, transportation safety and enterprise economy. Then, the simulation model of road dangerous goods high temperature limited transportation policy is studied. It is divided into five subsystems: "transportation demand", "regulation", "illegal transportation behavior", "accident" and "enterprise economy". The main factors and their coupling relations are analyzed, and the structural equations are established. Finally, taking Beijing as an example, this model is used to determine the parameters of the model and the specific scheme of the limited transportation policy (including the period of limited transportation) by means of questionnaire survey, interviews with key enterprises, historical data collection and analysis, empirical data analysis, etc. The standard of fine and the rate of benchmark penalty are also simulated and analyzed in order to compare the advantages and disadvantages of different schemes in terms of the number of accidents and the profit of the enterprises. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: the policy of high temperature and limited transportation of dangerous goods plays a significant role in reducing the number of accidents caused by road transportation of dangerous goods, but the impact on the economic benefits of enterprises should be considered when the policy is formulated. When the policy is too strict, It is not conducive to the economic development of enterprises; when the policy is too relaxed, enterprises will risk illegal transportation in order to obtain economic benefits, thus failing to achieve the original intention of making policies. Take Beijing as an example, adopt a moderately strict policy (limited to 30 days, The fine standard is 5000 yuan / from, the benchmark penalty rate is 50%) is the most appropriate.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：U492.8

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