本文選題：洪旱　切入點：聚集性　出處：《自然災害學報》2017年02期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：干旱和洪水災害是新疆主要的自然災害,其發(fā)生頻率高,分布廣且危害嚴重。洪旱災害空間聚集研究對防災減災、救災物資科學配置的意義重大。以近30年新疆各縣市洪旱災害次數(shù)為基礎,運用全局Moran’s I系數(shù)、Moran散點圖和Anselin局部Moran’s I系數(shù)分析了新疆縣域尺度洪旱災害的空間自相關性,揭示了新疆洪旱災害的局部聚集和局部異常特征。全局空間自相關結果表明,縣域尺度干旱、暴雨與升溫混合型洪水、融雪型洪水和山洪Moran’s I Z值大于0.01,置信水平為2.54,表明洪旱災害在行政單位間存在很強的空間自相關性,空間分布呈聚集狀態(tài)。局部空間自相關結果表明,干旱聚集區(qū)比較分散,主要分布在東疆哈密地區(qū)和北疆伊犁地區(qū)、昌吉回族自治州、阿勒泰地區(qū)和南疆和田地區(qū);1984-1989年干旱聚集程度最高,研究時段內聚集整體呈下降趨勢,各時段均有少數(shù)幾個縣市與鄰近縣市局部空間自相關顯著,局部區(qū)域呈集聚或離散的空間格局。各類型洪水"高-高"聚集空間差異顯著,融雪型洪水聚集在塔城地區(qū)和克州,山洪聚集在哈密地區(qū)哈密市、伊吾和巴里坤縣與周邊木壘縣;暴雨與升溫混合型洪水聚集在博州的溫泉、博樂和精河縣以及伊犁地區(qū)的霍城縣。
[Abstract]:Drought and flood disasters are the main natural disasters in Xinjiang, which have high frequency, wide distribution and serious harm. The scientific allocation of disaster relief materials is of great significance. Based on the number of flood and drought disasters in various counties and cities of Xinjiang in the past 30 years, the spatial autocorrelation of flood and drought disasters at county scale in Xinjiang is analyzed by using the global Moran's I coefficient and the Anselin partial Moran's I coefficient. The characteristics of local accumulation and local anomaly of flood and drought disaster in Xinjiang are revealed. The global spatial autocorrelation results show that the mixed flood of drought, rainstorm and temperature rise at county scale. The Moran's I Z value of snowmelt flood and mountain flood is greater than 0.01, and the confidence level is 2.54, which indicates that there is a strong spatial autocorrelation between administrative units and the spatial distribution of flood and drought disaster is aggregated. The local spatial autocorrelation results show that the arid accumulation area is scattered. Mainly distributed in Hami area of eastern Xinjiang and Yili area of northern Xinjiang, Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture, Altay region and Hotan area of southern Xinjiang had the highest drought accumulation from 1984 to 1989, and the aggregate accumulation showed a downward trend during the period of study. In each period, a few counties and cities have a significant autocorrelation with the adjacent counties and cities, and the local areas show a spatial pattern of agglomeration or dispersion. There are significant differences in the accumulation space between high and high flood types, and snow-melting floods gather in Tacheng area and Kezhou. The torrential torrents are concentrated in Hami City, Iwu and Barikun County and the surrounding Muli County. The rainstorms and mixed floods are concentrated in the hot springs, Bole and Jinghe counties in Bozhou and Huocheng County in Yili area.
【作者單位】： 中國氣象局烏魯木齊沙漠氣象研究所;中亞大氣科學研究中心;新疆維吾爾自治區(qū)氣候中心;長安大學地質工程與測繪學院;成都理工大學地球科學學院空間信息技術系;
【基金】：國家重點研發(fā)項目(2017FY10050) 國家自然科學基金項目(41301386,41505077)~~
【分類號】：X43
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本文編號：1591560