發(fā)布時間：2018-03-06 23:08

  本文選題：化工園區(qū)　切入點：風(fēng)險評估　出處：《中國石油大學(xué)（華東）》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：化工園區(qū)是現(xiàn)代化學(xué)工業(yè)發(fā)展形成的必然產(chǎn)物，它順應(yīng)了國際化、集約化、最優(yōu)化和效益最大化的時代發(fā)展趨勢，是今后化工產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的主導(dǎo)方向，，然而由于我國化工園區(qū)起步較晚，化工行業(yè)發(fā)展迅猛，對企業(yè)準(zhǔn)入化工園區(qū)的風(fēng)險評估模型并沒有達成一致共識，導(dǎo)致化工園區(qū)大量危險化學(xué)品帶來的風(fēng)險增加，從而存在許多安全隱患的新問題，因此，本文對基于風(fēng)險對企業(yè)準(zhǔn)入化工園區(qū)的模型展開研究，為我國化工園區(qū)的安全發(fā)展和企業(yè)安全準(zhǔn)入提供理論指導(dǎo)。 目前我國化工園區(qū)企業(yè)準(zhǔn)入領(lǐng)域的研究還處于探索階段，是一個比較嶄新的研究方向，因此，為了提高我國化工園區(qū)的整體安全性，降低事故發(fā)生的概率以及發(fā)生事故后應(yīng)急救援能力，有必要對準(zhǔn)入化工園區(qū)的企業(yè)進行風(fēng)險評估，對準(zhǔn)入企業(yè)進行綜合的準(zhǔn)入指標(biāo)評定，以及考察企業(yè)準(zhǔn)入后對整個化工園區(qū)安全容量的影響，從而有效、合理、系統(tǒng)的對化工園區(qū)和園區(qū)內(nèi)的企業(yè)進行管理，避免重大事故的發(fā)生，降低事故發(fā)生的概率，提高事故發(fā)生后應(yīng)急救援的能力，促進化工園區(qū)和企業(yè)更高效、更安全的發(fā)展。本文首先根據(jù)我國化工企業(yè)存在的危險因素進行了分析，對企業(yè)準(zhǔn)入的風(fēng)險評估原則、程序和模型進行了說明，并根據(jù)化工園區(qū)企業(yè)眾多的特點，對可能發(fā)生的多米諾效應(yīng)進行了闡述；其次，對化工園區(qū)的安全容量進行了分析和定義，并說明準(zhǔn)入企業(yè)的安全容量計算方法，闡述了企業(yè)準(zhǔn)入后對整個化工園區(qū)安全容量影響的分析過程；根據(jù)我國化工園區(qū)和化工企業(yè)的特點，對準(zhǔn)入企業(yè)建立了綜合指標(biāo)評價體系，從3個大項，54個要素出發(fā)，對準(zhǔn)入企業(yè)各個方面進行綜合衡量，并采用層次-模糊綜合評價的方法對指標(biāo)進行綜合評估；然后，根據(jù)對準(zhǔn)入企業(yè)的風(fēng)險評估、安全容量影響的分析、綜合指標(biāo)的評價建立了基于風(fēng)險的企業(yè)準(zhǔn)入化工園區(qū)的模型，并對模型進行了詳細的說明；最后論文根據(jù)建立的模型進行了實例應(yīng)用研究，通過Phast軟件對準(zhǔn)入企業(yè)主要產(chǎn)生的風(fēng)險的事故后果、個人風(fēng)險和社會風(fēng)險進行模擬，采用層次分析法和模糊數(shù)學(xué)的方法對企業(yè)的安全性進行了綜合指標(biāo)評判，并對企業(yè)準(zhǔn)入后對整個園區(qū)的安全容量影響進行了說明，根據(jù)結(jié)果對準(zhǔn)入企業(yè)找出不足和缺陷，并提出相應(yīng)準(zhǔn)入的建議。
[Abstract]:Chemical Industrial Park is the inevitable product of the development of modern chemical industry. It conforms to the trend of internationalization, intensification, optimization and maximization of benefits, and is the leading direction of chemical industry development in the future. However, due to the late start of chemical parks and the rapid development of chemical industry in China, there is no consensus on the risk assessment model of enterprises entering chemical parks, which leads to the increase of risk caused by a large number of dangerous chemicals in chemical parks. As a result, there are many new problems of safety hidden dangers. Therefore, this paper studies the model of enterprise access to chemical park based on risk, and provides theoretical guidance for the safety development of chemical industry park and the safety access of enterprises in our country. At present, the research on the access field of chemical industry park enterprises in China is still in the exploratory stage, which is a relatively new research direction. Therefore, in order to improve the overall safety of the chemical industry park in China, In order to reduce the probability of accidents and the ability of emergency rescue after accidents, it is necessary to evaluate the risks of enterprises entering the chemical industry park, and to evaluate the comprehensive access indexes for the enterprises involved. And to investigate the impact of the entry of enterprises on the safety capacity of the whole chemical industry park, so as to effectively, reasonably, systematically manage the chemical industry park and the enterprises in the park, avoid the occurrence of major accidents, and reduce the probability of accidents. In order to improve the ability of emergency rescue after accident and promote the development of chemical industry park and enterprise more efficiently and safely, this paper analyzes the risk factors of chemical enterprises in our country, and analyzes the risk assessment principle of enterprise access. The program and model are described, and according to the characteristics of the chemical industry park enterprises, the possible domino effect is described. Secondly, the safety capacity of the chemical park is analyzed and defined. It also explains the calculation method of the safety capacity of the access enterprises, expounds the analysis process of the influence of the entry of the enterprises on the safety capacity of the whole chemical park, according to the characteristics of the chemical parks and chemical enterprises in our country, A comprehensive index evaluation system has been set up in the alignment enterprise, which is based on three major items, 54 elements, and all aspects of the integrated evaluation, and adopts the method of hierarchical and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to evaluate the index synthetically. According to the risk assessment of the enterprise, the analysis of the influence of safety capacity and the evaluation of the comprehensive index, the model of entering the chemical industry park based on the risk is established, and the model is explained in detail. Finally, according to the established model, the paper carries on the example application research, through the Phast software to enter the enterprise the main risk accident consequence, the personal risk and the social risk carries on the simulation. The method of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy mathematics are used to judge the safety of the enterprise, and the influence on the safety capacity of the whole park after the entry of the enterprise is explained. According to the results, the shortcomings and defects are found out. And puts forward the corresponding admission suggestion.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國石油大學(xué)（華東）
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：TQ086

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