本文關(guān)鍵詞： 沿海建筑物 地震災(zāi)害 海嘯災(zāi)害 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析 保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)率計(jì)算　出處：《大連理工大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：沿海城市作為區(qū)域社會(huì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)、文化的中心,在社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中占有舉足輕重的地位,同時(shí)沿海城市也是自然災(zāi)害易發(fā)和頻發(fā)區(qū)域,進(jìn)行綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估對(duì)城市防災(zāi)減災(zāi)、救災(zāi)能力、恢復(fù)重建決策和多災(zāi)害保險(xiǎn)等方面具有重要意義。地震和海嘯都是典型的發(fā)生概率小但破壞力大的自然災(zāi)害活動(dòng),地震災(zāi)害直接經(jīng)濟(jì)損失評(píng)估研究已經(jīng)形成較為穩(wěn)定的、系統(tǒng)的方法；海嘯災(zāi)害損失評(píng)估研究相對(duì)較少,綜合地震和海嘯災(zāi)害的損失評(píng)估更少。本文對(duì)地震和海嘯災(zāi)害中建筑物的損失估計(jì)進(jìn)行分析。 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理是處理潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損失的計(jì)劃和安排,是一個(gè)不斷發(fā)展變化的過程,貫穿于災(zāi)害損失發(fā)生前后。近年來,自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的手段越來越多樣化,其中經(jīng)濟(jì)金融手段起到越來越重要的作用,特別是巨災(zāi)保險(xiǎn)在災(zāi)后重建中發(fā)揮了巨大的作用,為綜合自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理提供了有效的措施。多災(zāi)種保險(xiǎn)是未來發(fā)展的新趨勢(shì),本文以地震和海嘯災(zāi)害為例,研究多災(zāi)害保險(xiǎn)管理。 本文主要內(nèi)容分為兩部分。第一部分是地震和海嘯災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析。其中第二章介紹地震風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的現(xiàn)狀,簡(jiǎn)單介紹建筑物地震災(zāi)害損失評(píng)估方法和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理中的金融手段。第三章對(duì)海嘯災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行分析：先分析海嘯災(zāi)害特點(diǎn)；然后通過分析建筑物破壞形式和海嘯荷載總結(jié)各類建筑物破壞特征；最后根據(jù)災(zāi)后調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)建立了各類型建筑物海嘯易損性矩陣。第四章是地震和海嘯損失估計(jì),首先通過借鑒地震損失估計(jì)方法和分析海嘯損失的影響因素建立建筑物海嘯直接經(jīng)濟(jì)損失估計(jì)概率模型；接著量化局地海嘯中建筑物震后破壞等級(jí)對(duì)其后海嘯災(zāi)害的影響,建立了地震和海嘯共同損失估計(jì)模型；最后以多層磚砌體結(jié)構(gòu)為例,分析比較了地震、海嘯、地震和海嘯相互獨(dú)立以及海嘯作為地震次生災(zāi)害時(shí)的總損失。為地震海嘯損失估計(jì)提供一種簡(jiǎn)易快速的估計(jì)方法,為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)災(zāi)害預(yù)測(cè)、減災(zāi)管理和多災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估和保險(xiǎn)計(jì)算提供依據(jù)。 第二部分是地震和海嘯保險(xiǎn)。第五章首先介紹巨災(zāi)保險(xiǎn)的性質(zhì)和發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,根據(jù)現(xiàn)代風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可保性理論,從市場(chǎng)供需求、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可測(cè)性、政府參與和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移四方面討論了地震和海嘯災(zāi)害的可保性；然后介紹了保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)率的一般計(jì)算方法；接著建立地震和海嘯保險(xiǎn)的費(fèi)率精算模型,著重分析了絕對(duì)免賠率和相對(duì)免賠率下費(fèi)率的計(jì)算；最后給出算例分別計(jì)算設(shè)置不同免賠率時(shí),地震保險(xiǎn)、海嘯保險(xiǎn)、地震和海嘯共同保險(xiǎn)的費(fèi)率。
[Abstract]:As the center of regional society, economy and culture, coastal cities play an important role in the development of social economy. At the same time, coastal cities are also prone to and frequent natural disasters. Disaster response capabilities, recovery and reconstruction decisions, and multi-hazard insurance are important. Earthquakes and tsunamis are typical natural disaster activities that have a low probability of occurrence but are highly destructive. The research on direct economic loss assessment of earthquake disaster has formed a relatively stable and systematic method, while the research on tsunami disaster loss assessment has been relatively few. The damage assessment of comprehensive earthquake and tsunami disaster is less. This paper analyzes the damage estimation of buildings in earthquake and tsunami disaster. Risk management is the plan and arrangement to deal with the potential risk loss. It is a developing process, which runs through the disaster loss. In recent years, the means of natural disaster risk management have become more and more diversified. Among them, economic and financial means play an increasingly important role, especially catastrophe insurance plays a great role in post-disaster reconstruction, which provides effective measures for comprehensive natural disaster risk management. Multi-disaster insurance is a new trend in the future. In this paper, the earthquake and tsunami disaster as an example, the study of multi-disaster insurance management. The main content of this paper is divided into two parts. The first part is earthquake and tsunami disaster risk analysis. The second chapter introduces the current situation of earthquake risk assessment and risk management. This paper briefly introduces the methods of building earthquake disaster loss assessment and the financial means of risk management. Chapter three analyzes the risk of tsunami disaster: firstly, it analyzes the characteristics of tsunami disaster; Then, by analyzing the damage form of buildings and tsunami load, the damage characteristics of various kinds of buildings are summarized. Finally, according to the data of post-disaster survey, the tsunami vulnerability matrix of various types of buildings is established. Chapter 4th is the estimation of earthquake and tsunami losses. First, by using the method of earthquake loss estimation and analyzing the influencing factors of tsunami loss, the probability model of direct economic loss estimation of building tsunami is established, and then the influence of damage grade of buildings in local tsunami on subsequent tsunami disaster is quantified. Finally, taking the multi-story brick masonry structure as an example, the earthquake and tsunami are analyzed and compared. Earthquake and tsunami are independent of each other and the total loss of tsunami is the secondary disaster of earthquake. It provides a simple and fast method to estimate the loss of earthquake and tsunami, which can be used to predict the disaster in risk area. Disaster reduction management and multi-disaster risk assessment and insurance calculation provide the basis. The second part is earthquake and tsunami insurance. Chapter 5th first introduces the nature and development of catastrophe insurance, according to the modern theory of risk insurability, from the market supply and demand, risk measurability, Government involvement and risk transfer discussed the insurability of earthquake and tsunami disasters; then introduced the general calculation of insurance rates; and then established an actuarial model of rates for earthquake and tsunami insurance, The calculation of the rates under absolute and relative immunity rates is emphatically analyzed, and finally, the rates of earthquake insurance, tsunami insurance, earthquake and tsunami co-insurance are calculated with examples.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：X43

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