本文關(guān)鍵詞： 山洪災(zāi)害 小流域 風(fēng)險性評價 GIS 易損性 危險性　出處：《長江科學(xué)院》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：山洪災(zāi)害是我國嚴(yán)重的自然災(zāi)害之一,山洪災(zāi)害造成的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失和人員傷亡嚴(yán)重,嚴(yán)重制約山丘區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會可持續(xù)發(fā)展。大量事實證明,山洪以其突發(fā)性強(qiáng)、成災(zāi)快和破壞力大等特點(diǎn),難以進(jìn)行預(yù)測預(yù)報等相關(guān)研究,但山洪風(fēng)險性分析可以對洪災(zāi)不確定性進(jìn)行客觀描述,山洪的風(fēng)險性評價研究逐漸成為熱點(diǎn)。本研究主要利用GIS技術(shù),結(jié)合層次分析的方法,通過收集西南山丘區(qū)山洪災(zāi)害易發(fā)典型區(qū)魯?shù)榭h相關(guān)資料,提取典型小流域,建立山洪災(zāi)害風(fēng)險性評價模型,從山洪災(zāi)害危險性、易損性和風(fēng)險性三個層面進(jìn)行評價,主要結(jié)論包括以下幾個方面:(1)典型區(qū)山洪災(zāi)害風(fēng)險理論:小流域山洪災(zāi)害風(fēng)險理論是由山洪災(zāi)害危險性和易損性組成,結(jié)合該區(qū)域概況,以及實地走訪測量,綜合考慮典型區(qū)風(fēng)險區(qū)劃研究。(2)研究區(qū)山洪災(zāi)害危險性評價研究:危險性評價主要從研究區(qū)孕災(zāi)環(huán)境和致災(zāi)因子兩方面進(jìn)行評價,利用GIS的空間分析方法,建立包括地質(zhì)條件、坡度和起伏度、年均降雨量、植被覆蓋度和人類活動因子等孕災(zāi)環(huán)境指標(biāo)體系。通過搜集資料,結(jié)合當(dāng)?shù)貙嶋H情況對評價指標(biāo)進(jìn)行量化分級并賦值,其中各指標(biāo)的對孕災(zāi)環(huán)境貢獻(xiàn)程度以權(quán)重值來表現(xiàn),利用層次分析法(AHP)進(jìn)行專家打分得到權(quán)重值。致災(zāi)因子通過收集研究區(qū)年均降雨量和洪水頻次進(jìn)行量化賦值處理,最終得孕災(zāi)環(huán)境和致災(zāi)因子的指標(biāo)結(jié)果,利用GIS空間疊加功能,實現(xiàn)研究區(qū)危險性評價,最終劃分4個等級高危險區(qū)、危險區(qū),中危險區(qū)和低危險區(qū)。(3)研究區(qū)山洪災(zāi)害易損性評價研究:易損性評價主要從兩個方面進(jìn)行分析和評價。本著“以人為本”的前提,從人口易損性和經(jīng)濟(jì)易損性進(jìn)行研究,本研究選取處于西南部山區(qū)的不發(fā)達(dá)地帶,考慮承災(zāi)體特征屬性,主要選取人口和耕地進(jìn)行分析。最終把研究區(qū)易損性劃分4個等級:高易損性、中易損性,易損性和低易損性。(4)研究區(qū)山洪風(fēng)險性研究:在危險性和易損性計算的基礎(chǔ)上,通過對不同等級賦值,利用風(fēng)險性(R)=危險性(H)x易損性(V)公式,將研究區(qū)劃分4個等級,高風(fēng)險區(qū)、中風(fēng)險區(qū)、風(fēng)險區(qū)和低風(fēng)險區(qū)。(5)根據(jù)風(fēng)險區(qū)劃分的結(jié)果,提出科學(xué)可行的防治策略和措施,同時對無資料地區(qū)山洪過程進(jìn)行探討。
[Abstract]:Mountain torrents are one of the serious natural disasters in our country. The economic losses and casualties caused by mountain torrents are serious, which seriously restrict the sustainable development of economy and society in hilly areas. A large number of facts have proved that mountain torrents are suddenly strong. It is difficult to carry on the related research such as prediction and forecast because of the characteristics of quick and destructive disaster, but the analysis of mountain torrents risk can objectively describe the uncertainty of flood. The risk assessment of mountain torrents has gradually become a hot topic. This study mainly uses GIS technology, combined with the analytic hierarchy process method, through collecting the relevant data of Ludian County, a typical area where mountain torrents are prone to disasters in the southwest hilly area. A typical small watershed was extracted and a model was established to evaluate the risk of mountain torrents from three aspects: risk vulnerability and risk. The main conclusions include the following several aspects: the theory of mountain torrents risk in typical areas: the theory of mountain torrents risk in small watershed is composed of the risk and vulnerability of mountain torrents, combined with the general situation of the region. And field survey, comprehensive consideration of the risk regionalization of typical areas. 2) study on the risk assessment of mountain torrents in the study area: the risk assessment mainly from two aspects of disaster environment and disaster factors in the study area. By using the spatial analysis method of GIS, the disaster environment index system including geological condition, slope and fluctuation, average annual rainfall, vegetation coverage and human activity factors were established. Combined with the actual situation of the local evaluation indicators are quantitatively graded and assigned, in which the contribution of each index to the disaster environment is represented by the weight value. Using AHP (Analytic hierarchy process) to score experts to get the weight value. The disaster factors are quantified by collecting the average annual rainfall and flood frequency in the study area. Finally obtained the disaster environment and disaster factors index results, using the GIS space superposition function to achieve the risk assessment of the study area, and finally divided into 4 high risk areas, dangerous areas. Study on vulnerability evaluation of mountain torrents in the study area: vulnerability assessment is mainly carried out from two aspects, and based on the premise of "people-oriented". Based on the study of population vulnerability and economic vulnerability, this study selected the underdeveloped areas in the southwest mountain area, and considered the characteristics of disaster bearing bodies. Finally, the vulnerability of the study area is divided into four levels: high vulnerability, middle vulnerability. Vulnerability and low vulnerability. 4) study on the risk of mountain torrents in the study area: based on the calculation of risk and vulnerability, different grades are assigned. The study area is divided into 4 grades, high risk area, middle risk area, middle risk area and low risk area. The scientific and feasible control strategies and measures are put forward, and the mountain torrents process in the areas without data is discussed at the same time.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長江科學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：X43

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