本文關(guān)鍵詞： 過(guò)程系統(tǒng) 目標(biāo)樹(shù)成功樹(shù)-動(dòng)態(tài)主邏輯圖 故障鏈?zhǔn)叫?yīng) 安全 預(yù)測(cè)　出處：《化工學(xué)報(bào)》2016年07期 　論文類(lèi)型：期刊論文

【摘要】：煉化裝置故障及其故障鏈?zhǔn)叫?yīng)對(duì)油氣生產(chǎn)和人民生命安全所造成的危害嚴(yán)重。從故障鏈角度進(jìn)行事故風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究,提出煉化裝置故障鏈?zhǔn)叫?yīng)定量安全預(yù)警方法。首先分析煉化裝置故障鏈?zhǔn)疥P(guān)系結(jié)構(gòu),基于目標(biāo)樹(shù)成功樹(shù)-動(dòng)態(tài)主邏輯圖(GTST-DMLD)建立其故障鏈?zhǔn)叫?yīng)關(guān)系模型,揭示煉化裝置故障鏈?zhǔn)叫?yīng)行為規(guī)律和關(guān)聯(lián)本質(zhì),從而評(píng)價(jià)裝置異常工況下的安全狀態(tài)。進(jìn)一步以馬爾可夫過(guò)程為理論基礎(chǔ),建立故障鏈?zhǔn)叫?yīng)預(yù)測(cè)模型,預(yù)測(cè)故障傳播的后果和方向,并計(jì)算各后果的發(fā)生概率,為現(xiàn)場(chǎng)操作人員進(jìn)行主動(dòng)維修或應(yīng)急處置提供依據(jù)。案例分析中通過(guò)對(duì)某化工廠常壓塔裝置、減壓爐裝置為研究對(duì)象進(jìn)行應(yīng)用與驗(yàn)證,結(jié)果表明該方法可以準(zhǔn)確地對(duì)系統(tǒng)故障發(fā)生后的狀態(tài)進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)和預(yù)測(cè),方法有效、可行,便于操作人員在處置已有故障的同時(shí),注意預(yù)防其他異常工況的發(fā)生,降低油氣生產(chǎn)加工過(guò)程中的整體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
[Abstract]:The failure of refinery plant and its chain effect cause serious harm to oil and gas production and the safety of people's life. The risk of accident is studied from the angle of fault chain. A quantitative safety early warning method for failure chain effect of refinery plant is proposed. Firstly, the fault chain relationship structure of refinery plant is analyzed. Based on the target tree success tree-dynamic master logic diagram GTST-DMLD, a fault chain effect relationship model is established, which reveals the behavior law and correlation nature of fault chain effect in refinery plant. Based on the theory of Markov process, a fault chain effect prediction model is established to predict the consequence and direction of fault propagation. The occurrence probability of each consequence is calculated to provide the basis for active maintenance or emergency disposal of field operators. In the case analysis, the atmospheric tower installation in a chemical plant is analyzed. The results show that the method can accurately evaluate and predict the state of the system after the fault occurs, and the method is effective and feasible. It is convenient for operators to prevent the occurrence of other abnormal working conditions and reduce the overall risk in the process of oil and gas production and processing while handling the existing faults.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)石油大學(xué)(北京)機(jī)械與儲(chǔ)運(yùn)工程學(xué)院國(guó)家安全生產(chǎn)技術(shù)支撐體系"油氣生產(chǎn)事故預(yù)防與控制基礎(chǔ)研究實(shí)驗(yàn)室";
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(51574263) 教育部新世紀(jì)優(yōu)秀人才支持計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(NCET-12-0972) 中國(guó)石油大學(xué)(北京)科研基金項(xiàng)目(2462015YQ0403)~~
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TE687
【正文快照】： Received date:2015-11-26.Corresponding author:Prof.HU Jinqiu,hujq@cup.edu.cnFoundation item:supported by the National Natural Science Foundationof China(51574263),the Program for New Century Excellent Talents inUniversity(NCET-12-0972)and the Science Fou，

本文編號(hào)：1473008