發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-29 06:44

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 建筑施工 動(dòng)態(tài)安全管理 DFTA（動(dòng)態(tài)事故樹(shù)） 二元決策圖 Markov鏈　出處：《首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：現(xiàn)代安全管理是一個(gè)動(dòng)態(tài)的管理過(guò)程，強(qiáng)調(diào)事故誘發(fā)因素之間的時(shí)序性、關(guān)聯(lián)性和危害因素隨時(shí)間推移導(dǎo)致事故發(fā)生概率大小的動(dòng)態(tài)變化等。建筑施工安全管理更是如此，因?yàn)槿恕C(jī)、料、法、環(huán)的動(dòng)態(tài)變化隨著施工過(guò)程的展開(kāi)都更為明顯，每個(gè)施工項(xiàng)目和同一個(gè)項(xiàng)目的不同施工階段都存在不同的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素。隨著社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的飛速發(fā)展，我國(guó)建筑業(yè)也取得了飛躍進(jìn)步，但是在建筑業(yè)發(fā)展的同時(shí)，出現(xiàn)了大量安全生產(chǎn)事故，造成了巨大的人員傷害和經(jīng)濟(jì)損失，使建筑安全管理逐漸成為人們關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。究其原因，主要是我國(guó)建筑業(yè)目前實(shí)行的安全管理大多仍是傳統(tǒng)的、靜態(tài)的，缺少有效的動(dòng)態(tài)管理手段。 要保證建筑施工全過(guò)程安全，就必須首先做好整個(gè)建筑施工過(guò)程中每個(gè)施工環(huán)節(jié)的事故類(lèi)型辨識(shí)、做事故發(fā)生可能性的預(yù)測(cè)及對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)，并據(jù)此制定和實(shí)施安全技術(shù)或安全管理措施。然而，以事故樹(shù)分析等為代表的傳統(tǒng)的事故風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)測(cè)方法或安全評(píng)價(jià)方法卻難以解決動(dòng)態(tài)管理所強(qiáng)調(diào)的危害因素之間的時(shí)序性和因素之間的關(guān)聯(lián)性以及危害程度隨時(shí)間變化的問(wèn)題，，無(wú)法客觀地反映施工過(guò)程中那些可能出現(xiàn)的傷亡事故的實(shí)際風(fēng)險(xiǎn)程度。能否采用能更客觀地反映事故風(fēng)險(xiǎn)程度的評(píng)價(jià)方法這一點(diǎn)成為業(yè)內(nèi)人士的共識(shí)。而具有優(yōu)先與門(mén)、順序門(mén)、觸發(fā)門(mén)等結(jié)構(gòu)的動(dòng)態(tài)事故樹(shù)以及動(dòng)態(tài)事故樹(shù)分析方法尤為引人關(guān)注。 為說(shuō)明動(dòng)態(tài)事故樹(shù)分析能夠在一定程度上克服靜態(tài)安全管理的弊端，以建筑施工現(xiàn)場(chǎng)最為頻發(fā)的事故類(lèi)型——“從腳手架墜落”事故為例，實(shí)施動(dòng)態(tài)事故樹(shù)建模、利用Markov鏈追蹤并計(jì)算事故發(fā)生的概率，并將此結(jié)果與用靜態(tài)事故樹(shù)分析方法分析同樣問(wèn)題的結(jié)果進(jìn)行比較，用以說(shuō)明該方法較之以往傳統(tǒng)的、靜態(tài)的事故風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)方法都更接近實(shí)際，據(jù)此制定和實(shí)施的建筑安全管理對(duì)策或技術(shù)對(duì)策才更有針對(duì)性和實(shí)效性。
[Abstract]:Modern safety management is a dynamic management process, which emphasizes the timing of accident inducing factors. Correlation and hazard factors lead to the dynamic change of accident probability over time. The construction safety management is more so, because of people, machine, material, method. The dynamic changes of the ring are more obvious with the construction process, each construction project and the same project in different construction stages have different risk factors. With the rapid development of social economy. China's construction industry has also made great progress, but in the construction industry development, there have been a large number of accidents in production safety, resulting in huge human injury and economic losses. The main reason is that most of the safety management in our construction industry is still traditional, static and lack of effective dynamic management methods. In order to ensure the safety of the whole process of building construction, it is necessary to identify the accident types of each construction link in the whole construction process, to predict the possibility of the accident and to evaluate the forecast results. And to develop and implement safety technology or safety management measures accordingly. The traditional method of accident risk prediction or safety evaluation, such as accident tree analysis, is difficult to solve the time series and the correlation between the factors emphasized by dynamic management, as well as the degree of harm over time. The question of change. Can not objectively reflect the actual risk degree of those possible casualty accidents in the construction process. It has become the consensus of the industry to adopt the evaluation method which can reflect the accident risk degree more objectively. With the door. Sequential gates, trigger gates and dynamic accident trees are particularly interesting. In order to explain that dynamic accident tree analysis can overcome the drawbacks of static safety management to a certain extent, take the accident type "falling from scaffold", which is the most frequent accident type in construction site, as an example. The dynamic accident tree modeling is implemented and the probability of the accident is traced and calculated by using Markov chain. The results are compared with the results of the static accident tree analysis method. This method is used to show that the static accident risk assessment method is more close to the reality than the traditional one, and the construction safety management countermeasures or technical countermeasures formulated and implemented on the basis of these methods are more pertinent and effective.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TU714

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 趙冬偉;建筑工程施工安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究[D];揚(yáng)州大學(xué);2016年

本文編號(hào)：1472819