本文關(guān)鍵詞： 高速公路 路面溫度 精細化預報試驗　出處：《應(yīng)用氣象學報》2017年01期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：使用INCA(Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis)多源資料融合分析和短臨外推預報系統(tǒng)的預報結(jié)果作為氣象強迫場,驅(qū)動一路面溫度理論預報模型(Model of the Environment and Temperature of Roads,METRo),開展江蘇省高速公路夏季路面高溫預報試驗,并使用公路沿線逐小時的路面溫度觀測資料對預報結(jié)果進行檢驗。結(jié)果表明:該預報方法能夠較好地預報出高速公路沿線日最高路面溫度的逐日變化趨勢,以及日最高路面溫度的大范圍空間分布特征。平均日最高路面溫度預報絕對偏差為4.1℃,平均相對偏差為10.8%。其中,日最高路面溫度預報絕對偏差在5℃以內(nèi)的站次占總數(shù)的64.5%,相對偏差在15%以內(nèi)的站次占總數(shù)的74.6%,比常規(guī)業(yè)務(wù)預報方法分別提高了23.1%和25.3%。但該預報方法對較小的溫度波動以及局地性較強的極端溫度分布特征的預報技巧還需進一步提高。
[Abstract]:Using INCA(Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis). The forecast results of multi-source data fusion analysis and short-impending extrapolation forecasting system are taken as meteorological forcing fields. Model of the Environment and Temperature of Roads. High temperature prediction test of highway surface in Jiangsu Province in summer was carried out by MET Roo. The results show that the forecast method can well predict the daily variation trend of daily maximum pavement temperature along the highway. The average daily maximum pavement temperature forecast absolute deviation is 4.1 鈩，

本文編號：1467966