本文關(guān)鍵詞： 錨泊安全 模糊故障樹方法 模糊決策 模糊綜合評價　出處：《大連海事大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：船舶在進行檢疫、候潮、錨地過駁或避風時都要在錨泊時進行,因此,錨泊期間的船舶安全也就成為了船舶營運安全中必不可少的重要環(huán)節(jié)之一。船舶的設(shè)計與建造趨勢使得船舶更加大型化,船舶載重噸增加。隨著新船數(shù)量的增加,老舊船舶由于性能無法滿足現(xiàn)代航運的要求逐漸淘汰、棄用,加之航運市場尚未回暖,一些船舶處于停運狀態(tài),加重了錨地負擔。錨地也因此愈發(fā)擁擠,導(dǎo)致船舶錨泊危險程度的提升。對于錨泊安全的研究顯得十分重要,各國專家學者對錨泊安全問題做了大量研究,提出了很多見解和研究思路,其目的就是為了提升錨泊安全程度。在參考前人研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合相關(guān)文獻,本文將故障樹方法引入錨泊安全研究內(nèi)容當中,通過分析可能對錨泊安全產(chǎn)生影響的因素,以錨泊不安全狀態(tài)為頂上事件,以可能的影響因素為中間事件和底事件,建立一個船舶錨泊安全狀態(tài)的故障樹。在定性分析的過程中,文中使用下行法求得故障樹最小割集。通過向?qū)＜覍W者發(fā)放問卷,調(diào)查統(tǒng)計故障概率級別與概率判定準確度。隨后,根據(jù)統(tǒng)計結(jié)果將模糊數(shù)學方法與故障樹方法結(jié)合,將底事件發(fā)生概率及其對頂事件發(fā)生的影響進行定量分析,最后得出頂事件的發(fā)生概率。然后對各個底事件的影響重要度進行了排序,得出對錨泊安全影響較大的事件集合,并據(jù)此對錨泊安全做出了一些有針對性建議,為錨泊安全分析提供了一種思路。為驗證模糊故障樹方法在錨泊安全分析中的可行性,本文在模糊綜合評判的基礎(chǔ)上加入故障樹分析法,利用重要度法賦予底事件權(quán)重,通過模糊決策,計算出最容易導(dǎo)致錨泊事故的事件。本文的研究的計算過程為船舶駕駛員保障錨泊安全提供了依據(jù),結(jié)論與建議為保障錨泊安全提供了一個參考。
[Abstract]:Ships in quarantine, waiting for tide, Anchorage over barge or avoid the wind should be carried out at the anchor, therefore. The ship safety during the period of mooring has become one of the essential and important links in the ship operation safety. The trend of ship design and construction makes the ship larger. With the increase of the number of new ships, the old and old ships can not meet the requirements of modern shipping gradually eliminated, abandoned, coupled with the shipping market has not yet recovered, some ships are out of service. Increased the burden of Anchorage, Anchorage is also becoming more crowded, leading to the increase of ship anchoring risk. For the study of Anchorage safety is very important, many experts and scholars have done a lot of research on the problem of Anchorage safety. Put forward a lot of ideas and research ideas, its purpose is to improve the degree of safety of mooring. On the basis of previous research results, combined with relevant literature. In this paper, the fault tree method is introduced into the research content of anchor safety. By analyzing the factors that may affect the safety of anchor, the unsafe state of anchor is the top event. Taking possible factors as intermediate events and bottom events, a fault tree of ship mooring safety state is established. In the process of qualitative analysis. In this paper, the minimum cut set of fault tree is obtained by downlink method. By sending questionnaires to experts and scholars, the probability level of fault and the accuracy of probability determination are investigated. According to the statistical results, the fuzzy mathematics method and the fault tree method are combined to quantitatively analyze the probability of bottom event and its influence on the occurrence of top event. Finally, the occurrence probability of the top event is obtained. Then the influence importance degree of each bottom event is sorted, and the event set which has a great influence on the anchor safety is obtained, and based on this, some targeted suggestions are made on the anchor safety. In order to verify the feasibility of the fuzzy fault tree method in the anchor safety analysis, this paper adds the fault tree analysis method on the basis of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The importance method is used to give weight to the bottom event, and through fuzzy decision, the events which are most likely to lead to the anchoring accident are calculated. The calculation process of this paper provides the basis for the ship driver to ensure the safety of the anchor. Conclusions and suggestions provide a reference for the safety of mooring.
【學位授予單位】：大連海事大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：U698

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