我國(guó)A股上市公司綜合收益價(jià)值相關(guān)性的研究
本文選題:綜合收益 + 凈利潤(rùn); 參考:《湘潭大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文
【摘要】:在新經(jīng)濟(jì)時(shí)代,以歷史成本、謹(jǐn)慎性和實(shí)現(xiàn)-配比為原則的傳統(tǒng)會(huì)計(jì)收益在確認(rèn)和計(jì)量利得和損失方面存在局限性,從而不能及時(shí)準(zhǔn)確地反映企業(yè)的業(yè)績(jī)。不少學(xué)者發(fā)現(xiàn)傳統(tǒng)會(huì)計(jì)收益的價(jià)值相關(guān)性正在下降。綜合收益是傳統(tǒng)會(huì)計(jì)收益的改造和發(fā)展,比凈利潤(rùn)提供了更全面的財(cái)務(wù)信息。在歐美國(guó)家相繼提出綜合收益列報(bào)的相關(guān)準(zhǔn)則后,我國(guó)也于2009年發(fā)布《企業(yè)會(huì)計(jì)準(zhǔn)則解釋第3號(hào)》,要求在利潤(rùn)表中列報(bào)“綜合收益”和“其他綜合收益”項(xiàng)目。 相對(duì)于凈利潤(rùn),綜合收益是否與股價(jià)/股票收益率/未來(lái)現(xiàn)金流更相關(guān)?即,綜合收益價(jià)值相關(guān)性是否高于凈利潤(rùn)?哪種披露形式的綜合收益的價(jià)值相關(guān)性最高,《解釋第3號(hào)》是否提高了綜合收益的價(jià)值相關(guān)性?本文將基于我國(guó)滬深A(yù)股上市公司2007-2012年的數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)綜合收益價(jià)值相關(guān)性進(jìn)行全面系統(tǒng)研究。本文同時(shí)采用三組模型(價(jià)格/收益/現(xiàn)金流預(yù)測(cè)模型),用Vuong Z檢驗(yàn)方法來(lái)檢驗(yàn)綜合收益和凈利潤(rùn)等不同收益表現(xiàn)形式的相對(duì)價(jià)值相關(guān)性,并通過(guò)系數(shù)的顯著性來(lái)判斷其他綜合收益的增量?jī)r(jià)值相關(guān)性。另外,,本文通過(guò)在價(jià)格模型中加入了時(shí)期虛擬變量進(jìn)行回歸和按《解釋第3號(hào)》實(shí)施前后準(zhǔn)則編制的2008年的兩套數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行回歸這兩種方法從不同角度對(duì)《解釋第3號(hào)》是否顯著提高綜合收益的價(jià)值相關(guān)性進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)。 本文得出的結(jié)論如下: 總額形式的綜合收益的價(jià)值相關(guān)性最低,但分解形式的綜合收益的價(jià)值相關(guān)性大于凈利潤(rùn),其他綜合收益及其組成項(xiàng)目具有增量信息含量。凈利潤(rùn)+其他綜合收益(分項(xiàng))形式的綜合收益能促使信息使用者在進(jìn)行盈余分析時(shí),能夠有效利用其他綜合收益組成項(xiàng)目帶來(lái)的增量信息,能夠綜合考慮影響企業(yè)未來(lái)現(xiàn)金流的所有相關(guān)因素,因此其具有最高的價(jià)值相關(guān)性。 《解釋第3號(hào)》并沒(méi)有顯著提高綜合收益的價(jià)值相關(guān)性,可能存在兩方面的原因:(1)準(zhǔn)則實(shí)施前,綜合收益及其組成項(xiàng)目已經(jīng)在所有者權(quán)益變動(dòng)表中列示,使得準(zhǔn)則實(shí)施前后綜合收益的價(jià)值相關(guān)性沒(méi)有顯著差異;(2)《解釋第3號(hào)》雖要求在利潤(rùn)表內(nèi)披露“綜合收益”和“其他綜合收益”項(xiàng)目,但是其他綜合收益組成項(xiàng)目卻被要求在附注中披露,降低其透明性和重要性。 由于凈利潤(rùn)+其他綜合收益(分項(xiàng))形式的綜合收益具有最高的價(jià)值相關(guān)性,因此應(yīng)將其他綜合收益組成項(xiàng)目在利潤(rùn)表內(nèi)列示,而我國(guó)準(zhǔn)則制定機(jī)構(gòu)已經(jīng)意識(shí)到這一點(diǎn),并在今年新修訂的《企業(yè)會(huì)計(jì)準(zhǔn)則第30號(hào)—財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表列報(bào)》中要求企業(yè)在利潤(rùn)表中列示其他綜合收益各組成項(xiàng)目。
[Abstract]:In the new economic era, the traditional accounting income based on historical cost, prudence and realization ratio has its limitations in recognizing and measuring gains and losses, so that it can not reflect the performance of enterprises in time and accurately. Many scholars have found that the value correlation of traditional accounting income is declining. Comprehensive income is the transformation and development of traditional accounting income, which provides more comprehensive financial information than net profit. After the European and American countries put forward the related standards of comprehensive income reporting, our country also issued "Enterprise Accounting Standards explanation No. 3" in 2009, which requires "comprehensive income" and "other comprehensive income" items to be reported in the income statement. Relative to Yu Jing profit, is the combined return more relevant to the share price / stock return / future cash flow? That is, is the correlation of the combined return value higher than the net profit? Which form of disclosure has the highest value relevance, and does explanation No. 3 improve the value relevance of the combined income? Based on the data of China's Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2012, this paper makes a comprehensive and systematic study on the value correlation of comprehensive returns. At the same time, we use three groups of models (price / income / cash flow forecasting model), and use Vuong Z test to test the relative value correlation of different forms of income, such as comprehensive income and net profit. And through the significance of the coefficient to judge the incremental value correlation of other comprehensive returns. In addition, In this paper, by adding a period of fictitious variables to the price model and regression from two sets of data compiled in 2008 according to the criteria before and after the implementation of explanation No. 3, this paper makes a different analysis of interpretation No. 3 from different angles. Whether or not the value correlation of comprehensive income is significantly improved is tested. The conclusions of this paper are as follows: The value correlation of the total comprehensive income is the lowest, but the value correlation of the decomposed comprehensive income is greater than the net profit, and the other comprehensive income and its components have incremental information content. The combined income in the form of other comprehensive earnings (sub-items) of net profit can promote the information users to make effective use of the incremental information brought by other integrated income components in earnings analysis. It can comprehensively consider all the relevant factors that affect the future cash flow, so it has the highest value relevance. Explanation No. 3 does not significantly improve the value relevance of the combined income. There may be two reasons for this. Before the implementation of the rule, the comprehensive income and its constituent items have been listed in the statement of changes in the owners' equity. Explanation No. 3 requires disclosure of "consolidated income" and "other composite income" items in the income statement, But other aggregate income components are required to be disclosed in notes, making them less transparent and important. Since the combined income in the form of other combined earnings (sub-items) of net profit has the highest value relevance, other composite income components should be listed in the income statement, which is recognized by our standard-setting body. In this year's newly revised Accounting Standards for Enterprises No. 30-Financial statement presentation, enterprises are required to list other comprehensive income items in the income statement.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:湘潭大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】:F832.51;F275
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