本文關(guān)鍵詞：世界經(jīng)濟(jì)變化對(duì)中東經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

世界經(jīng)濟(jì)變化對(duì)中東經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響

Impacts of the Global Economic Changes on the Middle-East Economy

[1]

JIANG Mingxin （Jiang Mingxin, Institute of West-Asian and African Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences）

[1]中國(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)院西亞非洲研究所

文章摘要：2014年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)生了許多重大轉(zhuǎn)變，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇態(tài)勢(shì)的逐步鞏固、各主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體經(jīng)濟(jì)增速的分化、美國(guó)貨幣政策正�；约皣�(guó)際油價(jià)暴跌，都對(duì)西亞北非經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生重大影響。但由于世界經(jīng)濟(jì)變化傳導(dǎo)的滯后效應(yīng)，尤其是國(guó)際期貨市場(chǎng)油價(jià)的滯后效應(yīng)，西亞北非經(jīng)濟(jì)在2014年的大多數(shù)時(shí)間里基本延續(xù)著2013年的大體走勢(shì)．更多受到國(guó)際油價(jià)緩慢下降和急劇變化的地區(qū)安全局勢(shì)的影響。而在2015年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)下行壓力增強(qiáng)、油價(jià)低位徘徊、地區(qū)安全問(wèn)題復(fù)雜化和長(zhǎng)期化、美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息預(yù)期日益增強(qiáng)的情況下，2015—2016年西亞北非總體經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)日趨負(fù)面。

Abstr：The world economy has undergone many significant changes since 2014, such as the consolidation of global economic recovery, the differentiation of economic growth among the major economies, the US normalization of monetary policy as well as the slump of international oil prices, all these factors have made and will make great impacts on the MENA economy. However, due to the lagged effects of the world economic changes, especially that of the oil price in the international futures market, the MENA economies followed by and large their trend in 2013 during most of time in 2014, namely, most influenced by the slow decline of international oil price and rapid change of the regional security situation. In 2015, as the downside risks to the world economy become more pronounced, and that the slump of international oil prices continues, the regional security issues become more complex and protracted, the Fed is expected to raise its policy rates, the outlook of MENA economic growth in 2015-16 becomes increasingly negative.

文章關(guān)鍵詞：

Keyword：:International Oil Price Security WANA Economy

作者信息：會(huì)員可見

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：世界經(jīng)濟(jì)變化對(duì)中東經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。