本文的研究目的有以下幾個方面:首先使用1960:Q1-2007:Q3和1960:Q1-2015:Q4兩段美國全要素生產(chǎn)率的樣本數(shù)據(jù),研究經(jīng)濟信息對商業(yè)周期波動的影響（沖擊）;其次研究貨幣政策在商業(yè)周期不同階段對主要經(jīng)濟和金融變量的影響（沖擊）;第三,利用各種計量經(jīng)濟模型,包括最新的時間序列宏觀經(jīng)濟分析方法識別發(fā)達國家（美國）在最近的經(jīng)濟危機中對新興的亞洲國家的金融相互依賴和危機傳染效應(yīng)。類似于75年前大蕭條,當前的經(jīng)濟波動及其傳導(dǎo)引發(fā)的金融動蕩也激起了激烈的辯論。在現(xiàn)代商業(yè)周期模型中,商業(yè)周期波動是由基本面變化產(chǎn)生的,比如貨幣政策、技術(shù)、偏好和政府政策的變化。經(jīng)濟信息和貨幣政策信息可能是經(jīng)濟波動的根源的假設(shè)在過去得到了很好的認可�？偟膩碚f,在經(jīng)濟信息方面,大量的文獻已經(jīng)將經(jīng)濟信息視為商業(yè)周期波動的主要來源。然而,關(guān)于能夠識別數(shù)據(jù)修正作用及其對商業(yè)周期波動的影響的經(jīng)濟信息研究方面的文獻還比較缺乏,事實上,由于經(jīng)濟信息的存在,消費者信心、股票價格數(shù)據(jù)或期限結(jié)構(gòu)數(shù)據(jù)已經(jīng)成為預(yù)測全要素生產(chǎn)率和經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)出誤差方差的重要方面。關(guān)于貨幣政策對經(jīng)濟周期和資本市場的影響方面。有許多有待解決問題,例如,貨幣... 

【文章頁數(shù)】：165 頁

【學位級別】：博士

【文章目錄】：
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ABSTRACT 摘要 Chapter 1: Introduction
1.1 General introduction
1.2 Basic theories of news shocks and business cycle
    1.2.1 Theories analyze news shocks and business cycle
    1.2.2 Role of news shocks in business cycle
    1.2.3 Approaches used to measure news shocks in the literature
1.3 Basic theories of monetary policy and business cycle
    1.3.1 Theories analyze monetary policy and business cycle
    1.3.2 Role of monetary policy in business cycle and global imbalances
    1.3.3 Approaches used to measure monetary policy transmission mechanisms in theliterature
1.4 Basic theories of contagion
    1.4.1 Theories analyze contagion
    1.4.2 Approaches used to test contagion in the literature
1.5 Objectives and plan of this dissertation
1.6 Innovation of this dissertation
1.7 Flowchart of this dissertation Chapter 2: New Evidence on the Identification of News Shocks on Business Cycle
2.1 Description of problems
2.2 Empirical model
2.3 Data
2.4 Results and discussion
    2.4.1 How might our conclusion regarding the impact of news shock on businesscycle fluctuations change by using different vintages of TFP series?
    2.4.2 Which forward-looking variables account for major share of forecast errorvariance of TFP and output due to news shock?
2.5 Robustness
2.6 Conclusion Chapter 3: Assessing the Effect of Monetary Policy on Business Cycle
3.1 Description of problems
3.2 Empirical model
3.3 Data and description
3.4 Results and discussion
3.5 Conclusion Chapter 4: Monetary Policy and Contagion of the Business Cycle
4.1 Description of problems
4.2 Empirical model
4.3 Data and descriptive statistics
    4.3.1 Data
    4.3.2 Descriptive statistics
4.4 Results and discussion
    4.4.1 Emerging money market
    4.4.2 Stock market
    4.4.3 Emerging sovereign bond market
    4.4.4 Implications
4.5 Conclusion
4.6 Annexure Chapter 5: Conclusion and Recommendations
5.1 Conclusion
5.2 Policy implications and recommendations
5.3 Future research possibilities References Glossary List of Publications Work in Progress



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