發(fā)布時(shí)間：2021-03-24 05:15

　　“金磚五國(guó)”是由巴西、俄羅斯、印度、中國(guó)和南非五個(gè)世界主要新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體組成的國(guó)際合作平臺(tái)。據(jù)世界銀行的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,2016年金磚五國(guó)的聯(lián)合GDP占世界GDP總量的22%,充分反映了“金磚”聯(lián)盟的規(guī)模。國(guó)際貿(mào)易是該組織框架的支柱之一。因此,本文的研究旨在分析金磚國(guó)家貿(mào)易發(fā)展的近期趨勢(shì),更具體地說(shuō),我們從經(jīng)驗(yàn)上分析哪些經(jīng)濟(jì)因素會(huì)影響到金磚五國(guó)的經(jīng)常賬戶余額,并考察各自的作用機(jī)制及影響程度。經(jīng)常賬戶余額是反映國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行情況的重要指標(biāo),對(duì)這一論題展開研究可以讓我們更加深刻地認(rèn)識(shí)“金磚五國(guó)”的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展情況。在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡的態(tài)勢(shì)下,理解金磚國(guó)家如何發(fā)展國(guó)際貿(mào)易是非常重要的。根據(jù)國(guó)際貨幣基金組織2016年發(fā)布的報(bào)告顯示,“金磚五國(guó)”中只有中國(guó)和俄羅斯存在經(jīng)常賬戶盈余。因此,我們?cè)噲D結(jié)合理論模型和實(shí)證研究的結(jié)果為上述國(guó)家制定相應(yīng)政策,以期改善該國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況。本文實(shí)證部分主要基于面板回歸模型進(jìn)行分析,該分析以五個(gè)成員國(guó)的經(jīng)常賬戶指標(biāo)作為因變量,并根據(jù)現(xiàn)有經(jīng)驗(yàn)研究選取核心解釋變量與必要的控制變量。根據(jù)我們的分析結(jié)果,國(guó)內(nèi)產(chǎn)出增長(zhǎng)、貨幣供應(yīng)量和實(shí)際有效匯率是“金磚五國(guó)”經(jīng)常賬戶余額的重要決定因素,而貿(mào)易開放度... 

【文章來(lái)源】：東南大學(xué)江蘇省 211工程院校 985工程院校 教育部直屬院校

【文章頁(yè)數(shù)】：94 頁(yè)

【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士

【文章目錄】：
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
摘要
ABSTRACT
Chapter 1 Introduction
    1.1 The motivation for the study
        1.1.1 The role of current account balances from the global perspective
        1.1.2 BRICS current account balances, why do they matter?
    1.2 Research questions and objectives
    1.3 Methodology
    1.4 Organization of the thesis
Chapter 2 Literature review
    2.1 Theoretical framework
        2.1.1 Exchange rate
        2.1.2 Income
        2.1.3 Productivity
        2.1.4 Money supply
        2.1.5 Trade openness
    2.2 Empirical literature
        2.2.1 Country-specific research
        2.2.2 Cross-country and panel research
        2.2.3 BRICS –related research
Chapter 3 Trends in economic development and current account balances of BRICS
    3.1 Brazil
        3.1.1 Brazil’s economic and current account development
        3.1.2 Brazil’s trade structure overview
    3.2 Russia
        3.2.1 Russia’s economic and current account development
        3.2.2 Russia’s trade structure overview
    3.3 India
        3.3.1 India’s economic and current account development
        3.3.2 India’s trade structure overview
    3.4 China
        3.4.1 China’s economic and current account development
        3.4.2 China’s trade structure overview
    3.5 South Africa
        3.5.1 South Africa’s economic and current account development
        3.5.2 South Africa’s trade structure overview
    3.6 Summary
Chapter 4 Methodology and Estimation results
    4.1 Data
    4.2 Model specification
    4.3 Units root test
    4.4 Empirical analysis and results
Chapter 5 Summary and conclusions
    5.1 Summary
    5.2 Conclusions
    5.3 Policy Implications
    5.4 Areas for further study
List of References



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