【摘要】：2015年是我國宏觀經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型、微觀變化加劇的一年。2016年將是持續(xù)探底的一年。根據(jù)模型預(yù)測,2015年我國GDP增速為6.9%,CPI為1.4%。2016年GDP增速為6.6%,CPI為1.3%,個別季度GDP增速可能跌破6.5%。在國內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟周期因素作用下,經(jīng)濟下行的底部以及底部深度及持續(xù)的長度,還存在不確定性。經(jīng)過2015年~2016年全面培育新的增長點和新的動力機制,預(yù)測2017年后期宏觀經(jīng)濟將出現(xiàn)平穩(wěn)反彈,逐漸步入中高速穩(wěn)態(tài)增長的軌道之中。
[Abstract]:2015 is the year of China's macro-economic structure transformation and the micro-change is exacerbated. 2016 will be the year of continuous bottoming. According to the model forecast, China's GDP growth rate in 2015 is 6.9%and CPI is 1.4%. In 2016, GDP growth rate was 6.6%, CPI was 1.3%, and GDP growth in individual quarters might fall below 6.5%. Under the action of economic cycle factors at home and abroad, there is still uncertainty in the bottom of economic downturn, bottom depth and continuous length. After fully cultivating new growth points and new dynamic mechanism from 2015 to 2016, it is predicted that the macroeconomic economy will rebound steadily in late 2017, gradually entering into the track of medium and high-speed steady state growth.
【分類號】：F124

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