發(fā)布時間：2019-05-30 00:56

【摘要】：經(jīng)濟學(xué)中著名的“看不見的手”原則強調(diào)市場是組織經(jīng)濟活動的好方法,主張在充分競爭的市場上開展自由經(jīng)濟活動,市場主體作為理性的經(jīng)濟人,會根據(jù)利益最大化原則在市場這只看不見的手的指揮下進行交易。但若將“看不見的手”原則應(yīng)用于世界范圍內(nèi)國家之間的宏觀經(jīng)濟政策抉擇上,這只手將會產(chǎn)生失靈現(xiàn)象。全球經(jīng)濟一體化使得國家之間的聯(lián)系越來越緊密,一國的宏觀經(jīng)濟政策將不再僅作用于國內(nèi),而是會通過溢出效應(yīng)對其他國家的經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生影響,若是任憑每個國家“各自為政”,往往會催生“以鄰為壑”的政策并導(dǎo)致全球經(jīng)濟福利的減少。因此,研究國家之間的宏觀經(jīng)濟政策協(xié)調(diào)問題對于促進全球經(jīng)濟發(fā)展十分重要。伴隨著經(jīng)濟全球化的深入,國際宏觀經(jīng)濟政策協(xié)調(diào)機制也在不斷演進。2008年全球金融危機的爆發(fā)又一次凸顯了國際宏觀經(jīng)濟政策協(xié)調(diào)的需要,為了應(yīng)對危機,各國團結(jié)協(xié)作,推動建立了新的國際宏觀經(jīng)濟政策協(xié)調(diào)機制——G20領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人峰會。世界主要發(fā)達國家和發(fā)展中國家通過G20平臺進行了廣泛的宏觀經(jīng)濟政策協(xié)調(diào),有效地避免了危機的進一步蔓延。G20逐漸取代G7成為國際宏觀經(jīng)濟政策協(xié)調(diào)的新機制。因此,本文選取G20作為研究國際宏觀經(jīng)濟政策協(xié)調(diào)機制的切入點,通過對G20的產(chǎn)生、特點、運行、議題等方面的分析明確G20機制協(xié)調(diào)宏觀經(jīng)濟政策的方式,通過對G20宏觀經(jīng)濟政策協(xié)調(diào)成果的分析明確G20在國際宏觀經(jīng)濟政策協(xié)調(diào)領(lǐng)域內(nèi)的作用,根據(jù)在成效分析中暴露的問題提出G20未來的改革方向。本文首先梳理了相關(guān)的基礎(chǔ)理論:博弈論基礎(chǔ)之上的最優(yōu)政策分析表明國際宏觀經(jīng)濟政策協(xié)調(diào)的必要性——納什均衡是一種帕累托無效率的非合作均衡;蒙代爾-弗萊明模型證明了貨幣政策的溢出效應(yīng);哈馬達模型表明政策合作能夠帶來福利改進。其次概述了國際宏觀經(jīng)濟政策協(xié)調(diào)機制的四個發(fā)展階段:金本位制時期、布雷頓森林體系時期、G7體系時期、G20體系時期;闡述了G20的歷史演進、特點、運行機制、議題設(shè)置,G20成員國有代表性、運行機制有靈活性,成員國內(nèi)存在利益不同的小集團國。最后分析了G20宏觀經(jīng)濟政策協(xié)調(diào)的成效和改革措施,以及中國面臨的機遇和挑戰(zhàn),提出了中國參與G20國際宏觀經(jīng)濟政策協(xié)調(diào)機制的建議,應(yīng)充分利用好G20平臺并擴展更多的合作機制,通過更廣范圍地布局經(jīng)濟金融網(wǎng)絡(luò)來提高中國在全球經(jīng)濟治理中的話語權(quán)。
[Abstract]:The famous "invisible hand" principle in economics emphasizes that the market is a good way to organize economic activities, and advocates that free economic activities should be carried out in a fully competitive market, and the market subject should be regarded as a rational economic man. Transactions will be carried out under the command of the invisible hand of the market in accordance with the principle of maximization of interests. But if the "invisible hand" principle is applied to macroeconomic policy choices between countries around the world, this hand will fail. Global economic integration makes countries more and more closely linked, and one country's macroeconomic policies will no longer act only at home, but will have an impact on the economies of other countries through spillover effects. Leaving each country "separate" tends to lead to beggar-thy-neighbour policies and a decline in global economic welfare. Therefore, it is very important to study macroeconomic policy coordination between countries to promote global economic development. With the deepening of economic globalization, the international macroeconomic policy coordination mechanism is also constantly evolutioning. the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008 once again highlighted the need for international macroeconomic policy coordination, in order to deal with the crisis, countries unite and cooperate. Promoted the establishment of a new international macroeconomic policy coordination mechanism, the G20 leaders Summit. The major developed and developing countries in the world have carried out extensive macroeconomic policy coordination through the G20 platform, effectively avoiding the further spread of the crisis. G20 gradually replaced G7 as a new mechanism of international macroeconomic policy coordination. Therefore, this paper selects the G20 as the starting point to study the international macroeconomic policy coordination mechanism, and clarifies the way in which the G20 mechanism coordinates macroeconomic policies through the analysis of the emergence, characteristics, operation, issues and other aspects of the G20. Through the analysis of the results of G20 macroeconomic policy coordination, the role of G20 in the field of international macroeconomic policy coordination is clarified, and the future reform direction of G20 is put forward according to the problems exposed in the effectiveness analysis. This paper first combs the relevant basic theory: the optimal policy analysis on the basis of game theory shows the necessity of international macroeconomic policy coordination-Nash equilibrium is a kind of Pareto inefficient non-cooperative equilibrium; The Mondale-Fleming model proves the spillover effect of monetary policy, and the Hamada model shows that policy cooperation can bring about welfare improvement. Secondly, it summarizes the four development stages of the international macroeconomic policy coordination mechanism: the gold standard period, the Bretton Woods system period, the G7 system period, the G20 system period; This paper expounds the historical evolution, characteristics, operating mechanism, issue setting of G20 members, the representativeness of G20 member countries, the flexibility of operating mechanism, and the existence of small group countries with different interests in member countries. Finally, this paper analyzes the effectiveness and reform measures of G20 macroeconomic policy coordination, as well as the opportunities and challenges facing China, and puts forward some suggestions for China to participate in the G20 international macroeconomic policy coordination mechanism. We should make full use of the G20 platform and expand more cooperation mechanisms to improve China's voice in global economic governance through a broader layout of economic and financial networks.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中共中央黨校
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F113

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