【摘要】：文章以動態(tài)隨機一般均衡模型作為基本分析框架,構建一個帶有時變摩擦的實際經濟周期(RBC)模型。在考慮經濟結構變化的前提下,使用經濟周期測度(BCA)模型對1978—2015年我國宏觀經濟波動特征進行研究和引起波動的因素進行分解,實證結果表明:1993年是我國經濟系統(tǒng)結構變化的斷點,1978—1992年我國經濟波動主要受技術沖擊影響,其他的沖擊因素具有緩解經濟波動的作用;1993—2015年,我國經濟波動主要受投資沖擊的影響,而技術沖擊、勞動沖擊和外部沖擊也起到部分影響;改革開放以來,我國經濟波動源由從單一波動源向多種沖擊共同作用的趨勢發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:In this paper, a real economic cycle (RBC) model with time-varying friction is constructed by using the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model as the basic analysis framework. On the premise of considering the change of economic structure, the (BCA) model of economic cycle measure is used to study the characteristics of macroeconomic fluctuations in China from 1978 to 2015 and decompose the factors causing fluctuations. The empirical results show that 1993 is the breakpoint of the structural change of China's economic system. From 1978 to 1992, the economic fluctuations in China are mainly affected by technological shocks, and other shock factors can alleviate the economic fluctuations. From 1993 to 2015, China's economic fluctuations were mainly affected by investment shocks, while technological shocks, labor shocks and external shocks also played a partial role. Since the reform and opening up, the economic fluctuation source of our country has developed from a single fluctuation source to a variety of shocks.
【作者單位】： 暨南大學深圳旅游學院;四川大學經濟學院;
【基金】：國家自然科學基金資助項目(71473169;71473168)
【分類號】：F124.8
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本文編號：2485648