我國省域金融生態(tài)與經(jīng)濟增長的系統(tǒng)演化機制研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-04-19 06:38
【摘要】：進入“十二五”以來,我國經(jīng)濟增速出現(xiàn)了持續(xù)下滑,2015年6.9%的GDP增長率更是降至1991年以來的最低水平。在此背景下,“轉(zhuǎn)方式、調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu)”的大幕拉開,金融深化改革的步伐也隨之加快。從這幾年的發(fā)展經(jīng)驗看,深化金融體制改革,完善金融生態(tài)體系,持續(xù)提升金融主體活力,不斷優(yōu)化金融環(huán)境水平,從整體上有效促進供給和需求的協(xié)同共進。而通過近幾年實踐經(jīng)驗的有效積累,對金融生態(tài)與經(jīng)濟增長關(guān)系的討論再次興起,對此的研究得以逐步深入,特別是結(jié)合我國金融體系的發(fā)展實際,并考慮到區(qū)域金融市場的發(fā)育差異,金融生態(tài)體系的構(gòu)建與完善從宏觀金融的風(fēng)險控制、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施改善、適應(yīng)新興業(yè)態(tài)以及強化金融發(fā)展能力等諸多方面不斷得以深化與拓展。在攻堅克難的進程中,相關(guān)理論研究正處于極為重要的探索期。在此背景下,本文就金融生態(tài)與經(jīng)濟增長關(guān)系的交互影響機制及其影響力的傳導(dǎo)機制做出創(chuàng)新型討論。文章首先在遵循科學(xué)性、層次性、可比性、數(shù)據(jù)可得性原則的基礎(chǔ)上,從金融主體發(fā)展深度、社會保障程度、法治環(huán)境、信用環(huán)境、政府公共服務(wù)、金融部門獨立性六個角度出發(fā)構(gòu)建金融生態(tài)評價指標體系。其次,運用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)原理,構(gòu)建了金融生態(tài)與經(jīng)濟增長關(guān)系的系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)仿真模型,在此基礎(chǔ)上,實證考察了我國30個省區(qū)2001-2014年經(jīng)濟增長與金融生態(tài)交互作用的演化特征,隨后對2015-2025年全國30個省區(qū)的金融生態(tài)水平進行了預(yù)測,并對全國四大區(qū)域的金融生態(tài)的發(fā)展水平進行了橫縱雙向?qū)Ρ确治�。結(jié)果顯示,考察期內(nèi)各省區(qū)金融生態(tài)水平保持持續(xù)上升之趨勢,東部地區(qū)金融生態(tài)的絕對值最高且增長速度最快,西部地區(qū)反之,中部地區(qū)和東北地區(qū)介于兩者之間。此外,文章還以構(gòu)建的系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型,引入政策沖擊,模擬了財政收入、居民消費支出、教育事業(yè)費支出、財政缺口四個主要變量對金融生態(tài)水平的不同影響程度,并進一步探討了區(qū)域之間的差異。結(jié)果表明,財政收入對金融生態(tài)的影響程度最強,居民消費支出、教育事業(yè)費支出、財政缺口三個因素在不同區(qū)域之間的影響程度差異明顯,在經(jīng)濟發(fā)達地區(qū),居民消費支出和教育事業(yè)費支出的影響程度基本相同,而在經(jīng)濟欠發(fā)達地區(qū),教育事業(yè)費支出的影響程度明顯大于居民消費支出。同時,在經(jīng)濟欠發(fā)達地區(qū),財政缺口對金融生態(tài)發(fā)展的抑制程度要高于經(jīng)濟發(fā)達地區(qū)。最后,根據(jù)政策模擬的結(jié)果,文章依據(jù)影響金融生態(tài)水平的主要因素,探討了優(yōu)化金融生態(tài)的路徑,提出改善金融生態(tài)的建議。
[Abstract]:Since entering the 12th five-year Plan, China's economic growth rate has continued to decline, and the GDP growth rate of 6.9% in 2015 has dropped to its lowest level since 1991. In this context, the "turn the way, adjust the structure" curtain opened, the pace of financial deepening reform also accelerated. From the development experience of the past few years, we should deepen the reform of the financial system, perfect the financial ecosystem, continuously enhance the vitality of the financial main body, continuously optimize the level of the financial environment, and effectively promote the co-development of supply and demand on the whole. And through the effective accumulation of practical experience in recent years, the discussion on the relationship between financial ecology and economic growth has re-sprung up, and the research on this issue has been gradually deepened, especially in the light of the actual development of the financial system in China. Taking into account the differences in the development of regional financial markets, the construction and perfection of the financial ecosystem has been deepened and expanded from the aspects of macro-financial risk control, infrastructure improvement, adaptation to emerging forms of business and strengthening the ability of financial development. In the process of overcoming the difficulties, the relevant theoretical research is at an extremely important stage of exploration. In this context, the interaction mechanism between financial ecology and economic growth and the transmission mechanism of its influence are discussed in this paper. On the basis of following the principles of science, hierarchy, comparability and availability of data, the article begins with the development depth of financial subject, the degree of social security, the environment of rule of law, the environment of credit, the public service of government, and so on. The independence of the financial sector sets out from six angles to construct the index system of financial ecological evaluation. Secondly, based on the theory of system dynamics, the system dynamics simulation model of the relationship between financial ecology and economic growth is constructed. This paper investigates the evolution characteristics of the interaction between economic growth and financial ecology in 30 provinces and regions of China from 2001 to 2014, and then forecasts the financial ecological level of 30 provinces and regions in China from 2015 to 2025. And the horizontal and vertical two-way comparative analysis of the development level of financial ecology in the four major regions of the country. The results show that the financial ecological level of each province keeps rising trend during the study period, the absolute value of financial ecology in the eastern region is the highest and the speed of growth is the fastest, on the contrary in the western region, the central region and the northeast region are between the two. In addition, based on the system dynamics model, this paper introduces the policy impact, and simulates the different influences of four main variables, namely, fiscal revenue, resident consumption expenditure, education expenditure and fiscal gap, on the financial ecological level. The differences between regions are also discussed. The results show that the influence of fiscal revenue on financial ecology is the strongest. The influence degree of residents' consumption expenditure, education expenditure and fiscal gap in different regions is obvious, in economically developed areas, there is a significant difference in the degree of influence of the three factors, namely, consumption expenditure, education expenditure and fiscal gap among different regions. The influence degree of resident consumption expenditure and education business expenditure is basically the same, but in the underdeveloped area, the influence degree of education business expenditure is obviously greater than that of resident consumption expenditure. At the same time, in the underdeveloped areas, the degree of inhibition of financial ecological development by the fiscal gap is higher than that of the developed areas. Finally, according to the results of policy simulation, according to the main factors affecting the level of financial ecology, this paper probes into the path of optimizing financial ecology, and puts forward some suggestions for improving financial ecology.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：青島大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.7;F124.1
[Abstract]:Since entering the 12th five-year Plan, China's economic growth rate has continued to decline, and the GDP growth rate of 6.9% in 2015 has dropped to its lowest level since 1991. In this context, the "turn the way, adjust the structure" curtain opened, the pace of financial deepening reform also accelerated. From the development experience of the past few years, we should deepen the reform of the financial system, perfect the financial ecosystem, continuously enhance the vitality of the financial main body, continuously optimize the level of the financial environment, and effectively promote the co-development of supply and demand on the whole. And through the effective accumulation of practical experience in recent years, the discussion on the relationship between financial ecology and economic growth has re-sprung up, and the research on this issue has been gradually deepened, especially in the light of the actual development of the financial system in China. Taking into account the differences in the development of regional financial markets, the construction and perfection of the financial ecosystem has been deepened and expanded from the aspects of macro-financial risk control, infrastructure improvement, adaptation to emerging forms of business and strengthening the ability of financial development. In the process of overcoming the difficulties, the relevant theoretical research is at an extremely important stage of exploration. In this context, the interaction mechanism between financial ecology and economic growth and the transmission mechanism of its influence are discussed in this paper. On the basis of following the principles of science, hierarchy, comparability and availability of data, the article begins with the development depth of financial subject, the degree of social security, the environment of rule of law, the environment of credit, the public service of government, and so on. The independence of the financial sector sets out from six angles to construct the index system of financial ecological evaluation. Secondly, based on the theory of system dynamics, the system dynamics simulation model of the relationship between financial ecology and economic growth is constructed. This paper investigates the evolution characteristics of the interaction between economic growth and financial ecology in 30 provinces and regions of China from 2001 to 2014, and then forecasts the financial ecological level of 30 provinces and regions in China from 2015 to 2025. And the horizontal and vertical two-way comparative analysis of the development level of financial ecology in the four major regions of the country. The results show that the financial ecological level of each province keeps rising trend during the study period, the absolute value of financial ecology in the eastern region is the highest and the speed of growth is the fastest, on the contrary in the western region, the central region and the northeast region are between the two. In addition, based on the system dynamics model, this paper introduces the policy impact, and simulates the different influences of four main variables, namely, fiscal revenue, resident consumption expenditure, education expenditure and fiscal gap, on the financial ecological level. The differences between regions are also discussed. The results show that the influence of fiscal revenue on financial ecology is the strongest. The influence degree of residents' consumption expenditure, education expenditure and fiscal gap in different regions is obvious, in economically developed areas, there is a significant difference in the degree of influence of the three factors, namely, consumption expenditure, education expenditure and fiscal gap among different regions. The influence degree of resident consumption expenditure and education business expenditure is basically the same, but in the underdeveloped area, the influence degree of education business expenditure is obviously greater than that of resident consumption expenditure. At the same time, in the underdeveloped areas, the degree of inhibition of financial ecological development by the fiscal gap is higher than that of the developed areas. Finally, according to the results of policy simulation, according to the main factors affecting the level of financial ecology, this paper probes into the path of optimizing financial ecology, and puts forward some suggestions for improving financial ecology.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：青島大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.7;F124.1
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