【摘要】：“系統(tǒng)耦合”最初起源于物理學(xué)。系統(tǒng)耦合后，功能與結(jié)構(gòu)將發(fā)生相應(yīng)變化，系統(tǒng)耦合效應(yīng)是系統(tǒng)結(jié)構(gòu)與環(huán)境條件相互協(xié)調(diào)、相互激發(fā)的綜合效應(yīng)。所以研究系統(tǒng)耦合效應(yīng)即耦合關(guān)系的協(xié)調(diào)對提高系統(tǒng)生產(chǎn)力至關(guān)重要。 首先，本文選用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)對鄱陽湖地區(qū)生態(tài)、經(jīng)濟與金融耦合系統(tǒng)進行分析，將耦合系統(tǒng)劃分為人口子系統(tǒng)、生態(tài)子系統(tǒng)、經(jīng)濟子系統(tǒng)和金融子系統(tǒng)，建立耦合系統(tǒng)模型�；�2005-2012年的歷史數(shù)據(jù)對鄱陽湖地區(qū)及城市生態(tài)、經(jīng)濟與金融耦合系統(tǒng)進行仿真，預(yù)測2015-2020年的結(jié)果。 其次，遵循評價指標(biāo)構(gòu)建原則，構(gòu)建鄱陽湖地區(qū)生態(tài)、經(jīng)濟與金融耦合系統(tǒng)評價指標(biāo)體系�；�2015-2020年的仿真數(shù)據(jù)，運用熵權(quán)法對指標(biāo)確定權(quán)重，得到鄱陽湖地區(qū)及城市3個系統(tǒng)的綜合指數(shù)。結(jié)果表明：鄱陽湖地區(qū)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)和金融系統(tǒng)綜合指數(shù)均位于第3位，經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)綜合指數(shù)第1。6個城市中，景德鎮(zhèn)市和鷹潭市的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)綜合指數(shù)較高；6個城市的經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)綜合指數(shù)相差不多，南昌市排名第1；南昌市的金融系統(tǒng)綜合指數(shù)均高于0.88，遠遠領(lǐng)先于其他5個城市。在此基礎(chǔ)上，運用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度對鄱陽湖地區(qū)及城市生態(tài)、經(jīng)濟與金融耦合系統(tǒng)進行關(guān)聯(lián)分析。以經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)為參考序列，計算結(jié)果為鄱陽湖地區(qū)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的關(guān)聯(lián)度是0.3844，金融系統(tǒng)的關(guān)聯(lián)度是0.8519；表明鄱陽湖地區(qū)經(jīng)濟主要受到金融的影響。原因是6個城市中除了鷹潭市的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)關(guān)聯(lián)度高于金融系統(tǒng)關(guān)聯(lián)度之外，其余5個城市均為金融系統(tǒng)關(guān)聯(lián)度高于生態(tài)系統(tǒng)關(guān)聯(lián)度。 再次，本文利用耦合度模型及耦合協(xié)調(diào)度模型，，計算出2015-2020年鄱陽湖地區(qū)及城市生態(tài)、經(jīng)濟與金融系統(tǒng)的耦合度及耦合協(xié)調(diào)度。依據(jù)耦合協(xié)調(diào)度劃分標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，結(jié)論表明：鄱陽湖地區(qū)耦合系統(tǒng)處于瀕臨失調(diào)的階段；南昌市在2018-2019年是輕度失調(diào)，其余為瀕臨失調(diào)；鷹潭市和景德鎮(zhèn)市從輕度失調(diào)上升到了瀕臨失調(diào)的階段；新余市和撫州市處于輕度失調(diào)的階段；而九江市在2016年、2017年及2019年為中度失調(diào)，其余為瀕臨失調(diào)。 最后，依據(jù)分析結(jié)果對鄱陽湖地區(qū)生態(tài)、經(jīng)濟與金融空間耦合發(fā)展模式提出了幾點建議：一是南昌市和新余市的“生態(tài)系統(tǒng)+經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)”的耦合發(fā)展模式；二是景德鎮(zhèn)市和鷹潭市的“金融系統(tǒng)+經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)”的耦合發(fā)展模式；三是九江市和撫州市的“生態(tài)系統(tǒng)+金融系統(tǒng)+經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)”的耦合發(fā)展模式。
[Abstract]:System coupling originated in physics. After the coupling of the system, the function and the structure will change correspondingly. The coupling effect of the system is the comprehensive effect of the coordination and excitation between the system structure and the environmental conditions. Therefore, it is very important to study the coupling effect, that is, the coordination of coupling relationship, to improve the productivity of the system. Firstly, the coupling system of ecology, economy and finance in Poyang Lake area is analyzed by system dynamics. The coupling system is divided into population subsystem, ecological subsystem, economic subsystem and financial subsystem, and the coupling system model is established. Based on the historical data of 2005-2012, the coupling system of ecology, economy and finance in Poyang Lake area and city is simulated and the results from 2015 to 2020 are predicted. Secondly, the evaluation index system of ecological, economic and financial coupling system in Poyang Lake region is constructed according to the principle of constructing evaluation index. Based on the simulation data from 2015 to 2020, the index weights are determined by entropy method, and the comprehensive indices of three systems in Poyang Lake area and city are obtained. The results showed that the comprehensive index of ecosystem and financial system in Poyang Lake area was in the third place, and the comprehensive index of ecosystem in Jingdezhen and Yingtan cities was higher than that in the 1.6 cities of economic system composite index. The economic system composite index of the six cities is not much different, Nanchang City ranks first; Nanchang City's financial system composite index is above 0.88, which is far ahead of the other five cities. On this basis, the grey correlation degree is used to analyze the coupling system of ecology, economy and finance in Poyang Lake area and city. Taking the economic system as the reference series, the calculated results show that the correlation degree of the ecosystem in Poyang Lake area is 0.3844 and the correlation degree of the financial system is 0.8519, which indicates that the economy in Poyang Lake area is mainly influenced by finance. The reason is that except Yingtan City, the correlation degree of ecosystem is higher than that of financial system, the correlation degree of financial system is higher than that of ecosystem in the other five cities. Thirdly, using coupling degree model and coupling coordination degree model, the coupling degree and coordination degree of ecological, economic and financial system in Poyang Lake area and urban area from 2015 to 2020 are calculated. According to the criteria of coupling coordination degree, the results show that the coupling system in Poyang Lake area is on the verge of maladjustment, Nanchang City is slightly dysfunctional in 2018-2019, and the others are on the verge of maladjustment. Yingtan City and Jingdezhen City rose from mild disorder to the stage on the verge of maladjustment; Xinyu City and Fuzhou City were at the stage of mild disorder; while Jiujiang City was moderate disorder in 2016, 2017 and 2019, while the rest was on the verge of maladjustment. Finally, according to the analysis results, the paper puts forward some suggestions on the coupling development model of ecological, economic and financial space in Poyang Lake area: first, the coupling development mode of "ecosystem economic system" in Nanchang and Xinyu; The second is the coupling development model of "financial system economic system" in Jingdezhen and Yingtan, and the third is the coupling development model of "ecosystem financial system economic system" in Jiujiang and Fuzhou.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南昌大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：X22;F127;F832.7

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