【摘要】：本文使用生產(chǎn)函數(shù)法從不同角度建立經(jīng)濟(jì)計(jì)量模型估計(jì)了我國1978-2012年的潛在產(chǎn)出和潛在增長率。本文分別選取固定資產(chǎn)存量和電力消耗量作為資本存量的替代變量，在此基礎(chǔ)上進(jìn)一步建立固定要素產(chǎn)出彈性和可變要素產(chǎn)出彈性模型估計(jì)潛在產(chǎn)出；以及通過分產(chǎn)業(yè)建立相應(yīng)的生產(chǎn)函數(shù)模型然后合成全國潛在產(chǎn)出的方法估計(jì)我國的潛在產(chǎn)出和產(chǎn)出缺口。本文研究表明：從對(duì)未來的預(yù)測(cè)能力上看，基于電力消耗的潛在產(chǎn)出估計(jì)模型效果最好，預(yù)測(cè)能力最強(qiáng)；從經(jīng)濟(jì)周期劃分上來看，依照固定要素產(chǎn)出彈性模型估計(jì)結(jié)果劃分的周期與實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)周期最吻合；但是從奧肯定律與菲利普斯曲線模型的擬合程度上來說，分產(chǎn)業(yè)估計(jì)模型的效果最好。此外，本文還發(fā)現(xiàn)：中國應(yīng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)而進(jìn)行的大規(guī)模固定資產(chǎn)投資并沒有起到應(yīng)有的效果，資本使用效率指標(biāo)呈現(xiàn)出一種加速下滑的態(tài)勢(shì)，固定資產(chǎn)投資只帶來了表面上的GDP，卻沒有拉動(dòng)中國潛在產(chǎn)出的增長。而且中國固定資產(chǎn)投資對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的拉動(dòng)作用已經(jīng)到達(dá)了規(guī)模報(bào)酬不變，甚至開始出現(xiàn)規(guī)模報(bào)酬遞減的可能。在產(chǎn)業(yè)方面，中國農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)在三十年內(nèi)保持基本穩(wěn)定，現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)逐漸達(dá)到潛在產(chǎn)出水平，證明了中國農(nóng)業(yè)政策是持續(xù)有效的。但是，中國工業(yè)生產(chǎn)現(xiàn)階段正處于經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的下行階段，潛在增長率持續(xù)下滑。這也與中國第三產(chǎn)業(yè)迅速發(fā)展，逐步取代第二產(chǎn)業(yè)成為中國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的主力相關(guān)。最后，固定要素產(chǎn)出彈性模型告訴我們，中國潛在增長率的主要影響因素是全要素生產(chǎn)率，全要素生產(chǎn)率的提高或者下降與經(jīng)濟(jì)周期存在很大的相關(guān)性。
[Abstract]:In this paper, we use the production function method to establish econometric models from different angles to estimate the potential output and potential growth rate of China from 1978 to 2012. In this paper, fixed assets stock and electricity consumption are selected as alternative variables of capital stock, and then fixed factor output elasticity model and variable factor output elasticity model are established to estimate potential output. And the method to estimate the potential output and output gap of our country by establishing the corresponding production function model and synthesizing the national potential output. The research in this paper shows that the potential output estimation model based on power consumption has the best effect and the strongest prediction ability from the perspective of the prediction ability of the future. From the point of view of economic cycle division, the cycle divided according to the estimation result of the elastic model of fixed factor output is the most consistent with the actual economic cycle. But in terms of the fitting degree between Okun's law and Phillips curve model, the sub-industry estimation model has the best effect. In addition, this paper also finds that China's large-scale fixed asset investment in response to the economic crisis has not played its due role, the index of capital use efficiency presents an accelerated decline in the situation. Fixed-asset investment has brought only superficial GDP, but has not driven growth in China's potential output. Moreover, the fixed asset investment in China has reached the constant return on scale, and even appeared the possibility of decreasing the return on scale. In terms of industry, China's agricultural production has remained basically stable for three decades, and now it has gradually reached the level of potential output, which proves that China's agricultural policy is sustainable and effective. However, China's industrial production is at this stage in the downward phase of the economic cycle, the potential growth rate continues to decline. This is also related to the rapid development of China's tertiary industry, gradually replacing the secondary industry as the main force of China's economic development. Finally, the elasticity model of fixed factor output tells us that the main influencing factor of China's potential growth rate is total factor productivity, and the increase or decline of total factor productivity has a great correlation with the economic cycle.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F124

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本文編號(hào)：2452141