【摘要】：黨的十八大報告指出,工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化、農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化和信息化協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展是實現(xiàn)我國“兩個百年”目標(biāo)的必要手段。從目前信息化建設(shè)尚處于起步階段的現(xiàn)實來看,實現(xiàn)工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化與農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展是達(dá)到“四化”同步發(fā)展的基礎(chǔ)。故本文將“三化”協(xié)同發(fā)展作為研究的切入點,以四川省為例,探討新型工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化與農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化之間的互動關(guān)系以及“三化”各子系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部與兩兩系統(tǒng)之間發(fā)展的協(xié)調(diào)程度,以期豐富相關(guān)理論和指導(dǎo)實踐建設(shè)。在理清“三化”發(fā)展理論關(guān)系后,本文對新型“三化”發(fā)展階段進(jìn)行劃分。簡單的統(tǒng)計分析表明,目前四川省新型工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化和農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化存在發(fā)展不協(xié)調(diào)的情況。因此本論文在科學(xué)構(gòu)建新型“三化”發(fā)展指標(biāo)體系的基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用層次分析和主成分分析方法得到四川省2001-2015年“三化”綜合發(fā)展水平,并由此構(gòu)建VAR向量自回歸模型分析我省新型“三化”的互動發(fā)展關(guān)系。而后,利用協(xié)同學(xué)理論的衍生方法,測算出“三化”各子系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部和子系統(tǒng)之間的發(fā)展協(xié)調(diào)度。四川省新型“三化”互動關(guān)系研究顯示,三者之間互相牽制,作用力度和方向各不相同,但最終都呈現(xiàn)出對彼此之間趨于穩(wěn)定的正向沖擊,但是三者之間的發(fā)展仍然存在著互動欠缺、融合不足、協(xié)調(diào)不力等問題。發(fā)展協(xié)調(diào)水平研究表明:從子系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部協(xié)調(diào)度來看,2001-2015年間農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部發(fā)展具有不穩(wěn)定性且協(xié)調(diào)程度最差,新型城鎮(zhèn)化和新型工業(yè)化發(fā)展的協(xié)調(diào)性基本都呈現(xiàn)倒“V”走勢。從兩兩子系統(tǒng)間協(xié)調(diào)度來看,新型工業(yè)化與新型城鎮(zhèn)化、新型工業(yè)化與農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化、新型城鎮(zhèn)化與農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化之間的協(xié)調(diào)度水平都不高且呈現(xiàn)出協(xié)調(diào)度不穩(wěn)定的特性�；谏鲜鲅芯糠治鼋Y(jié)果,本文對促進(jìn)四川省新型“三化”協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展提出有益建議。四川省新型“三化”發(fā)展從不協(xié)調(diào)走向協(xié)調(diào)的過程中,需要在可持續(xù)發(fā)展的理念下推進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式的轉(zhuǎn)變,需要重點突出推動農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化發(fā)展,實施工業(yè)反哺農(nóng)業(yè)、產(chǎn)城融合發(fā)展等發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略,并且要加快信息化的建設(shè)進(jìn)程,使其在新型“三化”協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展中更好發(fā)揮平臺支撐作用。
[Abstract]:The report of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China points out that industrialization, urbanization, agricultural modernization and information-based coordinated development are the necessary means to achieve the goal of "two hundred years" in China. In view of the fact that the information construction is still in its infancy, the realization of industrialization, the coordinated development of urbanization and agricultural modernization are the basis for the simultaneous development of the "four modernizations". Therefore, this paper takes the coordinated development of "three modernizations" as the starting point of the research, taking Sichuan Province as an example to discuss the new industrialization. The interactive relationship between urbanization and agricultural modernization as well as the coordination degree of the development between each subsystem and the two systems in order to enrich the relevant theory and guide the construction of practice. After clarifying the theoretical relationship of the development of "three transformation", this paper divides the development stage of the new type of "three transformation". The simple statistical analysis shows that the development of new industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization in Sichuan Province is not coordinated. Therefore, based on the scientific construction of a new type of "three chemical" development index system, this paper uses the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and principal component analysis (PCA) to obtain the comprehensive development level of "three transformation" in Sichuan province from 2001 to 2015. Based on this, the VAR vector autoregressive model is constructed to analyze the interactive development relationship of the new type of "three transformations" in our province. Then, using the derived method of Synergetics theory, the development coordination degree of each subsystem of "three transformation" is calculated. The research on the interactive relationship of the new "three modernizations" in Sichuan Province shows that they contain each other and have different effects and directions, but in the end they all show a positive impact on each other, which tends to be stable. However, there are still some problems in the development of the three, such as the lack of interaction, the lack of integration, the lack of coordination and so on. The research on the level of development coordination shows that the internal development of agricultural modernization system in 2001-2015 is unstable and the coordination degree is the worst from the point of view of the internal coordination degree of the sub-system. The coordination of new-type urbanization and new-type industrialization basically shows the trend of "V". From the point of view of coordination degree between two subsystems, the coordination degree between new industrialization and new urbanization, new industrialization and agricultural modernization, new urbanization and agricultural modernization is not high and the coordination degree is unstable. Based on the above-mentioned research results, this paper puts forward some useful suggestions to promote the coordinated development of the new "three modernizations" in Sichuan Province. In the process of the development of the new type of "three transformation" in Sichuan Province, it is necessary to promote the transformation of economic structure and mode of economic development under the concept of sustainable development, and it is necessary to focus on promoting the development of agricultural modernization. It is necessary to implement the development strategies such as industry feeding agriculture, the integration and development of production cities and so on, and to speed up the process of information construction so that it can play a better role as a platform support in the coordinated development of the new type of "three modernizations".
【學(xué)位授予單位】：成都理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F127

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本文編號：2451479