【摘要】：在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化與國(guó)際產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移的大背景下,浙江省位于中國(guó)對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)開(kāi)放的前沿地區(qū),其產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)也必將從初級(jí)向高級(jí)化的方向發(fā)展。對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)開(kāi)放對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的重要作用也是目前的現(xiàn)實(shí)需求,在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中起到至關(guān)重要的作用。 本文研究浙江省對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)開(kāi)放度與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的相關(guān)關(guān)系及其影響,在總結(jié)現(xiàn)有經(jīng)典理論與研究成果的基礎(chǔ)之上,研究浙江省對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)的現(xiàn)狀與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的具體組成,并且分析對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)開(kāi)放度對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化的影響,并通過(guò)統(tǒng)計(jì)分析與實(shí)證分析的方法構(gòu)建浙江省對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)開(kāi)放度與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化度兩個(gè)綜合性指標(biāo)進(jìn)行多方面的影響效應(yīng)分析。 研究結(jié)果表明,浙江省對(duì)外貿(mào)易開(kāi)放度對(duì)于對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)開(kāi)放度的影響最大,且浙江省對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)開(kāi)放度易受世界經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的影響。運(yùn)用因子分析法進(jìn)行產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)內(nèi)部分析以及求得浙江省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化度表明,第一產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部四大行業(yè)之間存在顯著的正相關(guān)性,第二產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部的工業(yè)與建筑業(yè)兩大行業(yè)不存在顯著的相關(guān)性,第三產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部的交通運(yùn)輸、倉(cāng)儲(chǔ)和郵政業(yè)與批發(fā)、零售業(yè)和住宿、餐飲業(yè)存在一定程度的正相關(guān)性。不僅如此,三大產(chǎn)業(yè)的不同行業(yè)之間也存在一定程度的相關(guān)性。其中,農(nóng)林漁業(yè)與工業(yè)的相關(guān)性最小,幾乎不存相關(guān)性,但牧業(yè)與工業(yè)存在著一定程度的負(fù)相關(guān)；農(nóng)林漁牧業(yè)與建筑業(yè)之間均存在負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系；農(nóng)林漁牧業(yè)與交通運(yùn)輸、倉(cāng)儲(chǔ)和郵政業(yè),批發(fā)、零售業(yè)和住宿業(yè)存在一定程度的正相關(guān)關(guān)系,與其他三個(gè)服務(wù)業(yè)行業(yè)之間存在著負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系。 通過(guò)構(gòu)建向量自回歸模型(VAR)、脈沖效應(yīng)、向量誤差修正(VEC)模型等實(shí)證分析表明,浙江省對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)開(kāi)放度對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響,在短期內(nèi)不存在或者較弱,在中長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)存在正向影響。產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化在短期內(nèi)存在內(nèi)生優(yōu)化的慣性,但在中長(zhǎng)期該內(nèi)生優(yōu)化趨勢(shì)不存在。若對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)開(kāi)放度受到一個(gè)外部沖擊,則會(huì)給產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化帶來(lái)較為明顯的負(fù)向作用,在短期內(nèi)會(huì)引起產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的惡化,但長(zhǎng)期影響并不明顯。
[Abstract]:Under the background of global economic integration and international industrial transfer, Zhejiang Province is located in the frontier area of China's foreign economic opening, and its industrial structure will certainly develop from the primary level to the higher level. The foreign economic opening plays an important role in the adjustment of industrial structure and plays a vital role in the economic development. This paper studies the relationship between foreign economic openness and industrial structure of Zhejiang Province and its influence. On the basis of summarizing the existing classical theories and research results, this paper studies the current situation of Zhejiang's foreign economy and the specific composition of its industrial structure. It also analyzes the influence of foreign economic openness on industrial structure optimization, and constructs two comprehensive indexes of Zhejiang province, namely, external economic openness and industrial structure optimization, through statistical analysis and empirical analysis. The results show that the degree of foreign trade openness of Zhejiang Province has the greatest influence on the degree of foreign economic openness, and the degree of foreign economic openness of Zhejiang Province is vulnerable to the fluctuation of the world economy. The internal analysis of industrial structure by factor analysis and the optimization degree of industrial structure in Zhejiang Province show that there is a significant positive correlation among the four major industries within the primary industry. There is no significant correlation between the industry and the construction industry in the secondary industry, but there is a positive correlation between the transportation, storage and post industry in the tertiary industry and the wholesale, retail and catering industries to a certain extent. Not only that, the three major industries between different industries also have a certain degree of correlation. Among them, the correlation between agriculture, forestry, fishery and industry is the least, almost no correlation exists, but there is a certain degree of negative correlation between animal husbandry and industry, and between agriculture, forestry, fishery and industry, there is a negative correlation between agriculture, forestry, fishery and animal husbandry and construction industry. There is a positive correlation between agriculture, forestry, fishery and animal husbandry and transportation, storage and post, wholesale, retail and accommodation, and a negative correlation between agriculture, forestry and animal husbandry and the other three service industries. By constructing vector autoregressive model (VAR), pulse effect, vector error correction (VEC) model and other empirical analysis, it is shown that the impact of Zhejiang's external economic openness on industrial structure does not exist or is weak in the short term. There is a positive effect in the medium and long term. The industrial structure optimization has the inertia of endogenous optimization in the short term, but it does not exist in the medium and long term. If the external economic openness is affected by an external shock, it will bring more obvious negative effect to the optimization of industrial structure, and will cause the deterioration of industrial structure in the short term, but the long-term impact is not obvious.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F752.8;F127

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